


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
026 FXUS63 KIND 080705 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Sunny and Cooler Today. - Potential for frost Tonight and Thursday nights with lows in the upper 30s possible. - Dry weather is expected through at least Tuesday, with gradually warming temperatures. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over MN and NW WI. This high was expanding its influence east to MI and Indiana. Yesterday`s cold front had departed east to the Appalachians. The high was providing cooler and less humid north winds. GOES19 show clear skies across the forecast area and most of the midwest. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed subsidence in place over Indiana along with a strong ridge building over the northern plains states. This ridging was slowly pushing east toward Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Today and Tonight... Quiet, cooler and pleasant weather is expected today and tonight. The models suggest the strong ridging over the northern plains states will be drifting east across the upper midwest through tonight. This will continue to keep lee side subsidence in play across Indiana. The associated surface high will also slowly push across the Great Lakes through tonight, slowly allowing our surface flow to change from northerly today to northeasterly late tonight. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column amid all this subsidence, thus a sunny day and clear night will be expected. Given the cold air advection ongoing, highs in the mid to upper 60s will be expected with lows tonight in the upper 30s and lower 40s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Oct 8 2025 Prolonged dry weather is likely to return through the long term period as strong surface high pressure dominates the area much of the time, though there is some uncertainty to monitor early in the weekend with significant model discrepancies in handling a quick moving upper wave. Temperatures will briefly be near to a bit below normal to end the work week, with highs in the mid 60s to around 70 and lows as low as the mid 30s to low 40s. Cannot completely rule out isolated pockets of frost in sheltered areas north Thursday and Friday mornings, but temperatures are too borderline to include at the moment. The most likely area and time for frost at this time looks to be in the north/northeast Friday morning. Guidance in general suggests the building of a relatively narrow, high amplitude upper level ridge across the area over the weekend into early next week, which would bring temperatures back above normal, with highs gradually climbing back well into the 70s. Lows would likely still be near normal in the upper 40s to mid 50s given ongoing drought and accompanying enhanced diurnal ranges. The only outside chance for precipitation through early next week may be Friday evening into early Saturday, when a quick moving upper level wave is depicted passing somewhere near or through the region in various models, though discrepancies on placement and timing, not to mention run-to-run inconsistencies, remain significant, and moisture availability is suspect. Will maintain a dry forecast for now - and regardless, any precipitation with this feature would be light and non-impactful. At this time, the most likely impact will simply be an increase in mid and high level cloud cover. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1116 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025 Impacts: - VFR conditions this TAF period. Discussion: Strong high pressure over the upper midwest will build across Indiana and the TAF sites through the period. GOES19 shows clear skies upstream of the TAF sites and these are expected to rapidly build across the forecast area and persist through the next 24-30 hours. Forecast soundings show a very dry column in place through Friday morning as the surface high and ridging aloft move through the area. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Puma LONG TERM...Nield AVIATION...Puma