309
FXUS63 KIND 082029
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
329 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds tonight and not as cold. Warmer on Tuesday and
  Wednesday.

- Rain chances are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday,
  transitioning to snow showers at times Wednesday evening through
  Friday

- Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures in the
  single digits and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad area of high
pressure stretching from the Great Lakes across IL to OK and TX.
GOES16 shows some stratus still lingering over southern Indiana and
the Ohio River, while the Central and northern parts of Indiana were
under mainly clear skies. A few cirrus were found there due to the
quick flow aloft. Aloft, quick northwest flow was in place aloft and
a weak shortwave over EKY and OH was exiting quickly. Temperatures
have risen to the upper 20s.


Tonight...

Models suggest the large surface high pressure system to the west
will push across and east of Indiana tonight. This will allow the
mostly clear skies as seen across Indiana as well as upstream to
reside across the state through much of the evening. Overnight, warm
air advection is expected to begin and models suggest a mid level
cloud deck passing through the night. Forecast soundings show lower
levels remaining very dry and overall forcing is limited, thus
precipitation is not a concern. Thus mostly clear this evening with
increasing clouds overnight. Given the expected cloud cover and warm
air advection, lows should be slightly warmer, reaching mainly the
lower and middle 20s.

Tuesday...

Models on Tuesday continue to suggest a quick northwest flow in place
aloft, streaming from western Canada across the northern plains and
into Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Little in the way of forcing
dynamics appears present, so just some mid and high clouds passing
within the quick flow aloft are expected. Within the lower levels,
low pressure moving through the western Great lakes is expected to
provide SSW surface flow to Indiana and continued warm air advection.
Forecast soundings show dry air within the lower levels along with
saturation aloft. This will lead to just partly to mostly cloudy
skies. Given our southwest flow highs should reach into the lower
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 328 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

The long term period will start off near normal, and feel warmer
than we have been experiencing, then quickly turn cold again with
the potential for highs in the teens this weekend. There will also
be a few chances for precipitation through the long term as a few
upper waves pass by.

Central Indiana will be on the warm side of a weak system exiting
the Great Lakes Wednesday, allowing highs in the 40s. Light
precipitation is expected with this system mainly across the NE half
of the forecast area; should fall mainly as rain, but some snow
mixing in will be possible. Winds will also likely be a factor due
to tight gradients around the surface low. At this time, sustained
winds around 20 mph and gusts in excess of 30 mph are likely, which
should start during the early morning hours Wednesday and last
through the afternoon.

Behind the initial system, temperatures will again turn colder
with the return of generally NW flow. Models show additional
passing waves for the end of the week into the weekend that each
have the potential for light snow as it doesn`t take much energy
to produce snow at colder temps. By Saturday and Sunday, highs in
the teens and lows in the single digits will be possible for parts
of the forecast area. Confidence is high in the well below normal
temperatures but just how cold it will be this weekend is still
unknown as models keep going back and forth on the spatial extent
of the surge of arctic air this weekend. It does appear that
somewhere nearby will likely be the furthest reach of the highs
being in the teens. In our favor, the snow pack will likely melt
away midweek with the warmer temperatures, so that could make it
harder for the extreme cold to be realized. Either way, apparent
temperatures this weekend will range from around -10 to near 0 so
bundle up if you must spend time outside.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1206 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF period.

- Brief MVFR Cigs possible at BMG through 20Z.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows lingering stratus across southern Indiana impacting
BMG. Elsewhere skies were mostly clear with only a few passing CI
present.

Strong surface high pressure will drift across the TAF sites this
afternoon and evening, leading to continued VFR conditions amid
subsidence.

Overnight, the high will drift east of Indiana and warm air
advection will begin. This will allow for the advancement of some mid
level clouds across the TAF sites as surface winds become southerly.

On Tuesday, mid level clouds will still linger along with VFR
conditions, however a tightening surface gradient across the area
will allow for some wind gusts near 20 knts after daybreak on
Tuesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...Puma