437
FXUS63 KIWX 101044
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
644 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A weak front may bring some light showers or sprinkles to
  areas along and north of US 6 later this afternoon and
  evening.

- Much of the next 7 days will feature near to occasionally
  somewhat above normal temperatures with the warmest days
  likely occuring Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Light SE flow and slowing increasing 850 mb temps seem to be keeping
temperatures in check with everyone still in the low to mid
40s. Suspect frost potential will be very isolated if at all
through sunrise, but no changes planned for the headlines.

Focus then shifts to a weak disturbance, currently located from SW
Iowa to central Wisconsin. A broken lines of showers and even a few
storms were drifting east, assisted by some elevated instability.
The greatest coverage of the storms resided in SW/S central IA. With
time this instability weakens as do the showers, leading to low
confidence in any measurable precipitation falling in the 21Z
to 3Z period as the trough approaches. Models generally
confirming this with fairly saturated soundings AOA 800 mb, then
a dry layer below that. As a result of these factors, pops have
been lowered even more with at best low chc in the far NW. QPF
will be limited to a few hundredths at best. From 6Z Sat on, a
few sprinkles or light showers may linger in S lower MI.

Next feature of interest will be closed upper low which is well
depicted on water vapor in SW Ontario will drop ESE, grazing NE Lake
Huron by 6Z Sat and then reaching western NY by 00Z Sun. Main
impacts into the weekend will be a slowing of the arrival of warmer
temps and a shift in winds back to NW and N, which may stir up waves
some in SE Lake MI.

Modest upper level ridging will try to bring in warmer air, at least
briefly with highs in the low to mid 70s for Mon and Tue before
it flattens out as a weak, moisture starved boundary drops
south. Main impacts from this appear to be a return to more
seasonable temps in the mid 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites, with low potential
for MVFR conditions later tonight behind a cold front moving
through the area. Light and variable winds will shift S-SW
through the day, and N-NW overnight into Sat AM. Dry conditions
outside of some light showers and/or sprinkles at KSBN between
3-6z, and KFWA between 8-12z. Some of the guidance is hinting
at some MVFR ceilings during the period of showers with the
front/just after front passage (with drizzle/BR suggested).
Moisture is limited, so it`s possible (esp at KFWA) that we
don`t see any precipitation. Used a PROB30 to cover the
MVFR/shower or drizzle potential during the aforementioned time
periods, with VCSH in the predominant groups.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-
     013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ043.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for
     LMZ046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...MCD