439
FXUS63 KIWX 091743
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1243 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow diminishing this morning. Snow this evening
  changing to rain overnight as temps warm. There may be a brief
  period of freezing rain or sleet at the onset this evening,
  with potential for slick roads. Little to no snow accumulation
  expected.

- A rain snow mix will change to all snow by Wed afternoon and
  evening. Lake effect snow persists into Wed night. Snowfall
  amounts around 1 inch or less expected, with the greatest
  totals near Lake Michigan.

- Turning much colder this weekend with light snow at times.
  Wind chills mainly zero to -15. Heavy snow is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Challenges this forecast package include the onset and timing
of precipitation, types of precipitation including the chance
for brief freezing rain producing light icing, and snowfall
amounts starting this afternoon after the rain or mixed
precipitation changes to all snow. Light snow was spreading into
northwest Indiana, but was still west of South Bend as of 345
AM EDT. BUFKIT soundings were showing a fairly dry subcloud
layer southwest of Warsaw. Given radar and surface observations,
trends, and the latest model data light snow is expected to
accumulate less than 1 inch mainly north of the toll road today.

The soundings also showed mid levels cooling well before the
next round of precipitation beginning later tonight. The cold
front should move across the area early Wednesday with a fairly
rapid changeover from rain to snow. A brief period of freezing
rain is possible. Most of the forecast area should change over
to snow by late morning with nearly all areas becoming just snow
by mid afternoon Wednesday. Given the long cold pattern since
late November and given the cold pavement temperatures, it is
likely there will be some slippery spots on rural roads where
temperatures have not been warm enough long enough to melt the
snow.

Thursday is on the threshold of another long and cold period
with highs often below 20 degrees and lows in the single digits.
Wind chills will often be from -15 to +5 degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

The next weather system to impact the great lakes region will
drop southeast toward southern MI as an upper trof digs into the
region. A trailing cold front will traverse both terminal sites
Wednesday morning with winds turning northwest toward the end
of the fcst period.

Strong southwest llvl winds will cause the temperature profile
to warm enough to produce rain before eventually mixing and
changing to all snow by late morning on Wednesday. Wind shear
will be an issue for both sites with KFWA experiencing a longer
duration. MVFR cigs this aftn will lower to IFR overnight at
both sites, around 06Z at KSBN and not until mid morning at
KFWA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-
     046.
     Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Wednesday for
     LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...MF