509
FXUS63 KIWX 100549
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
149 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of frost are likely through early Friday morning with
  much of the area seeing a 50% or greater chance of minimum
  temperatures at or below 37 deg. A Frost Advisory is in
  effect through 9 am EDT.

- Isolated to widely scattered light rain showers are possible
  Friday afternoon and evening with the passage of a weak
  weather disturbance. Widespread measureable precipitation is
  unlikely.

- Temperatures will warm back to near or slightly above normal
  this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1242 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

One more seasonably chilly night ahead w/ high-res models still
in excellent agreement with minimum surface temperatures falling
into the middle to upper 30s as continued clear skies and light
winds support efficient radiational cooling. Low-level warm air
advection does kick in tonight w/ H85 temperatures expected to
climb from around 5C to near 10C by 12z Friday. This contributes
to some uncertainty w/ the likelihood of frost tonight, but w/
high-res ensembles still suggesting a 55-75 percent chance of 2m
temperatures under 37 deg F tonight, felt it was best to go
ahead w/ a Frost Advisory for those areas with at least a 50%
probability of exceedence per the HREF. This is valid from 2 AM
until 9 AM EDT Friday.

A generally dry, quiet pattern prevails otherwise. Isolated to
widely scattered very light rain showers will be possible later
Friday (especially after 21z) with the passage of a weak
disturbance aloft and associated surge of mid and high level
moisture. However, a relatively dry boundary layer should limit
the coverage of this activity and preclude any chance for much
more than a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation. After
today, a warming trend will commence w/ daily highs expected to
climb back to near or slightly above normal over the weekend
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 142 AM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions expected at the terminals through the period,
with mainly increasing high-mid level clouds to contend with.
Warm air will advect in towards the late morning with a passing
warm front, with E-SE flow shifting south-southwest through the
period. A cold front approaches KSBN around 00z, then crosses
through KFWA by Saturday morning. Light showers are possible
along this front, but moisture is lacking so confidence in any
specifics is low. For now, have VCSH at KSBN from 21z-03z--
though don`t expect much of an impact at the terminal from
these. Left out of KFWA for this issuance as best chances
arrive around or just after the end of the TAF period. Will add
greater detail with the 12z TAFS.


&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ005>009-
     013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MIZ079>081.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hammer
AVIATION...MCD