048
FXUS63 KIWX 101829
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Colder air returns with 1-2" of lake effect snow possible this
  afternoon into tonight in northwest IN and southwest MI.

- 1-2" of light snow possible Thursday night, mainly south of
  US-30.

- More light snow is expected this weekend, along with very cold
  air. Wind chill values may drop below -10F Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 129 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

A trailing cold front, currently near the US 24 corridor as of 18z,
will continue southeast clearing the rest of our forecast area by
early this evening. Associated convergence under weakened
deformation will allow for light precipitation (rain changing to
light snow) to accompany this feature with little to no snow
accumulation.

Attention then turns to marginally favorable conditions for LES late
this afternoon into tonight as 850 mb delta T`s push 20 in colder
northwest flow. The overall moisture quality and meager 5-6 kft
inversion heights doesn`t really favor a sustained vigorous lake
response, though the cloud layer does reach into the DGZ for
localized 1-2" snows and minor travel impacts in favored nnw flow
snow belts.

Cold northwest flow will send a couple more clippers southeast
through the Midwest and Ohio Valley late this week into the weekend.
These appear to be your more classic clippers that have relatively
narrow snow swaths (2-5"). A model consensus favors the Thursday
night wave and heavier fgen snow to bypass just southwest of the
area, though still possibly clipping areas mainly southwest of US 30
with a quick 1-2" of snow. Still some wriggle room left for a slight
north or south tick. Another clipper then follows through Saturday
afternoon-night with additional snow chances, followed by LES and
sub-zero wind chills Sunday into Sunday night. This cold/wintry
pattern then finally breaks down next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The primary surface cold front is working its way across
northern Indiana this afternoon with banding of light snow along
an associated low level fgen axis. This should produce most of
the snowfall within a 2-3 hour window at KSBN, while initially
more marginal low level temps at KFWA make snow accumulations
of less confidence. Radar imagery this afternoon is already
depicting a more dominant single band across southern Lake
Michigan, and this band is expected to shift eastward through
the remainder of the afternoon possibly affecting KSBN as early
as 21Z-22Z. Some of these lake effect snow showers could make it
to KFWA, but in a much weaker state, and see no reason to
deviate from previous mention of PROB30 from 01Z to 07Z. Lake
effect snow showers should diminish late tonight. Initial IFR
cigs should improve to lower end MVFR as winds shift to
northwest behind a cold front later this afternoon, with
additional MVFR cigs tonight as lake effect becomes dominant.
Currently expecting improvement to VFR low clouds at KFWA after
12Z, but lake effect processes should keep MVFR cigs at KSBN
into Thursday morning

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Marsili