449
FXUS64 KJAN 030350
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
950 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Cold conditions expected tonight.

  - Colder than normal through the remainder of the week, with
    additional rain events Wednesday night through Friday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 946 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Cloudy skies continue to prevail across the area this evening, but
with drier air moving in expect the clouds to erode overnight. A
few patchy areas of light fog will be possible towards early
morning. A cold night is on tap, with lows mostly in the mid
20s./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Tonight through next Monday...High pressure at the surface will
settle over the region tonight.  Some of the low clouds will erode
across the area this evening into tonight.  However, some mid/high
clouds will begin streaming northwest into the region during the
overnight hours into Wednesday morning.  Due to this reason, ideal
rational cooling conditions aren`t expected in this particular
airmass.  As a result, I did bump up lows tonight from NBM suggested
guidance a couple of degrees across the board.  Still, a chilly
night will exist across the CWA tonight as lows range from the upper
20s to lower 30s.  Some patchy freezing fog is also possible across
mainly northern portions of the area overnight.  However, due to its
scarcity and short duration, no impact is currently expected.

While the sun will peak in and out across the area Wednesday,
mid/high clouds will continue to increase through the course of the
afternoon as highs warm into the upper 40s to around 60.  Come late
Wednesday night, another shortwave moving out of the Four Corners
region and into the plains, will result in increasing rain chances
across mainly western portions of the CWA by sunrise Thursday
morning.

Through the course of the day Thursday and into late Thursday night,
showers will continue to increase in coverage across the forecast
area as this trough continues to work its way east.  Moisture will
continue to lift northwest into the Lower Mississippi River Valley
during this time, with a surface low pressure system finally
developing and lifting northwest across the north central gulf coast.
As the low continues its northwest journey across the Deep South
into the Carolinas Friday through Saturday, both clouds and rain
chances will gradually come to an end across the forecast area.
Rainfall totals during this timeframe currently look to range from
around one quarter of an inch to three inches, with the higher
amounts currently forecast to be across areas south of the
Interstate 20 corridor.

After Saturday, models are currently at odds with the timing and
placement of the next system to quickly affect the area in the
Sunday to Monday timeframe.  Therefore, I`ll maintain at least some
isolated POPs in the forecast for Sunday, but keep Monday dry for
the moment. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this evening and this will
continue into the early overnight hours. Expect skies to clear
overnight, with all TAF sites becoming VFR by early in the
morning. There could be some patchy fog, but do not expect
anything widespread. Light northerly winds will become light out
of the northeast to east overnight./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       41  27  57  39 /   0   0   0  50
Meridian      43  25  56  34 /  10   0   0  20
Vicksburg     41  27  56  40 /   0   0   0  70
Hattiesburg   46  30  60  41 /   0   0   0  40
Natchez       42  27  60  41 /   0   0   0  80
Greenville    40  27  50  39 /   0   0   0  50
Greenwood     39  25  53  36 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/