439
FXUS64 KJAN 081842
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
142 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Weak cold front will move through the southern portions of the
   area this afternoon. Only a very low chance of rain is expected
   ahead of the cold front.

 - Drier conditions with cooler mornings will return during the
   latter half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Tonight through Thursday night: Cooler and mostly dry through the
period. Split flow regime will continue with the southern branch of
the jet remaining dominant over our CWA. Latest satellite imagery
showed a northern stream upper level trough just east of the eastern
Great lakes and Ohio valley regions. This upper level trough was
supporting a weak cold front that was drifting south of our Highway
82 corridor. Isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will
remain possible this afternoon across our southern zones ahead of
the cold front but, much of our CWA will remain dry and no other
chance for rain is expected through the forecast period. The
northern stream upper level trough will quickly shift east but an
amplifying southern stream ridge to our west will result in
northwest flow aloft across our CWA going into tonight. A large
>1030mb surface high will dropping over the Great lakes region
going into tonight as well. These features will help the cold
front push south of our CWA and usher in cooler and much drier
air. Our normal morning lows run in the low to mid 50s. Thursday
morning lows will be in the upper 50s across our northern zones
and in the 60s elsewhere. The large surface high will shift east
from the Great lakes region to the New England states while
continuing to nose back across our region through Thursday night.
Southern stream shortwave ridging aloft will continue to amplify
to our west while southern stream shortwave troughing amplifies to
our east. This ridging surface and aloft will help limit rain
chances and the drier airmass will result in lower humidity.

Friday through Wednesday: This pattern of mid level ridging to our
west with mid level troughing to our east will last through the
weekend before upper level ridging becomes centered over our CWA
Tuesday and lingers over our CWA Wednesday. Surface ridging from the
northeast looks to continue through the weekend before a light
return flow gets reestablished Tuesday and Wednesday as well. High
temperatures will be above normal and show a gradual warming trend
through the period. Our normal highs run in the upper 70s. Morning
lows will be in the 50s areawide each morning Saturday through
Monday but lower 60s will expand from the south Tuesday and
Wednesday mornings. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

A mix of VFR/MVFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF
sites into this evening. This is as a result of low stratus
sinking south through the area in the wake of a cold front. Some
of this stratus will linger into the overnight hours. However come
Thursday morning, a return to VFR categories is forecast. Winds
will be breezy from the north between 5-10 knots this afternoon,
gusting between 15-20 knots at times. Wind will remain north
northwesterly overnight while hovering between 5-8 knots. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  61  82 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      61  84  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     63  83  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   67  88  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       64  85  58  84 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    59  79  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     58  82  57  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/22/19