306
FXUS64 KJAN 221125
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
525 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

  - Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front
    late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving
    holiday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Through late week...

Through this weekend (Through Sunday): Synoptic analysis and water
vapor imagery this morning indicate shortwave in the Mid MS Valley.
There is some patchy fog  Surface frontal zone is moving into the
ArkLaTex, with drier conditions moving in the wake. Frontal
convergence and some moisture (precipitable water in the 1.2 to 1.4
inch range) will help a few showers to potentially develop before
daybreak, but otherwise drying trend through the afternoon into
evening hours. PWs and dewpoints fall as the frontal passage moves
through this afternoon through early tomorrow morning (PWs of 0.4 to
0.6 inches and dewpoints in the 52F to 58F range. Temperatures will
be seasonably warm today, 11F to 16F today (highs of 70F to 82F)
while relaxed on Sunday, 5-8F above (highs of 67F to 75F and lows
48F to 52F Saturday morning and 45F to 52F Sunday night). Record
warm temperatures (highs) are possible in the Pine Belt today.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high will build across the
Ozarks into the OH Valley by late Sunday. With drier air and
shortwave ridging, dry and less seasonable warmth is expected
tomorrow.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Strong cold core is progged to move
across eastern CO and eject out of the Intermountain West and into
the Central Plains in NE to KS in the Central Plains. Sharp jet
energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will swing across
the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by early week. This
increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more potent surface
1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a stronger cold
front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong southwesterly shear (30-
55kts) will set up but remain line-parallel. This will help drive
dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of
Interstate 20. With southwesterly mean bulk shear and timing
generally close to the diurnal minimum, this looks to be short
duration potential. However, there are some lapse rates, favorable
thermo (6C to 6.5C in mid levels and 700 J/kg to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE)
and slower eastward progression there remains low end severe
potential Monday night persisting into Tuesday afternoon. Amplitude
differences of the closed low aloft/shortwave persist, with the Euro
slightly digging a little more. This will affect how long rain
chances persist another 24-36 hours. Rain totals remain sufficient,
but slightly decreased to around 1.5 inches (locally higher in
convection or training line-parallel storms). However, recent
dryness and limited preceding rain accumulation Friday limits
confidence and holding off in HWO. Synoptic discontinuity is
decreasing, with Euro and GFS trending towards further north
amplitude in northern Plains to Great Lakes, but intensity of closed
low is question. This pattern favors continued southwesterly flow
and rain chances through at least midnight Wednesday and latest
around noon. Regardless, mean northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1033mb
surface high and drier thermal profiles (PWs around quarter inch)
favor dryness and seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into
late this week on Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into
Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s are possible
both Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a light frost
possible Thursday night. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Low stratus continues to be pesky this morning, ranging from
200-900 feet. Conditions will improve around mid morning.
Thereafter, VFR should prevail. Fog has been reported off and on
throughout the night, but visibilities overall have improved.
There may still be occasional dense fog, but the very low stratus
deck has become dominant. GTR is likely to see low stratus yet
again tomorrow morning./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       79  51  70  50 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      79  50  71  47 /  10   0   0   0
Vicksburg     78  51  70  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   83  53  76  49 /  10   0   0   0
Natchez       80  50  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
Greenville    74  50  68  50 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     76  50  70  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ026>033-
     036>039-042>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ016-
     023>026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/DC/SAS20