736
FXUS64 KJAN 171116
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
616 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday
   morning for parts of the area.

 - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air.
   Rain chances return Monday evening into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Today through Saturday Afternoon...

Another round of quiet and dry weather conditions is in the forecast
for today as near term guidance continues to highlight a ridging
pattern over the MS River Valley. Cloud cover will start to
gradually increase from the west this morning/early afternoon with
daytime highs peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. The
ridge will begin to migrate eastward later this evening. This will
cause winds to gradually shift from N/NE to S/SW and allow for
moisture to increase across the are ahead of the approaching frontal
boundary. Heading into the overnight period, sky conditions will be
generally clear across our CWA. Expect overnight lows to dip into
the upper 50s/low 60s across the area.

Saturday morning will start off quiet as the ridge continues to
migrate eastward. Heading into Saturday afternoon, near term
guidance continues to show a mid-level trough pushing a cold front
towards the ArkLaMiss region. This will bring scattered showers/t-
storms chances (along with severe wx potential) to parts of the
region.

Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning...

Severe storms will continue heading into Saturday evening/Saturday
night with model consensus agreeing that the best area of instability
and thermodynamic parameters will be confined across portions of
north MS including portions of southeast AR and portions of
northeast LA. A few adjustments have been made to the severe
graphic for Saturday evening/Saturday night. The "Slight" risk has
been expanded eastward to cover portions of north MS. The
"Marginal" risk has been expanded further east to cover the
remainder of our area. Primary hazards for areas highlighted in
the "Slight" risk will be damaging winds up to 60 mph along with
quarter to golfball size hail. A brief spin-up tornado cannot be
ruled out.

For NE LA to to parts of southern MS, a "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5)
for severe wx will continued to be advertised. Main hazards will be
damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Saturday night/overnight
into Sunday morning still looks to be the best timing for severe wx
potential. Be sure to check back to refinement on severe wx
potential and timing as the system evolves and we get closer to
Saturday night.

Storms will continue heading into early Sunday morning as the cold
front continues through the area. Rain chances will come to an end
late Sunday morning/Sunday afternoon as the cold front finally exits
our CWA.

Sunday Afternoon through next Thursday...

The cold front will continue to push south away from our area Sunday
afternoon. This will help bring drier air across our CWA and help
keep temperatures average to slightly above average (roughly 5-10
degrees above climatology) in the forecast. A 1020mb sfc high
pressure will build over our forecast area looking ahead into Monday
keeping weather conditions quiet. Scattered showers will make a
return to the area Monday night (15-20% rain chances) into Tuesday
afternoon/Tuesday evening (20-30% chances) as long term guidance
shows a shortwave trough disturbance moving moving over the
southeast CONUS region. Rain chances will come to an end Tuesday
evening into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the ArkLaMiss
Region giving us a brief little break from the rain. Future guidance
shows a cold front from the central CONUS slowly propagating
southeastward towards our region. This will help introduce scattered
showers across our area heading into Thursday. /CR/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

All TAF sites are VFR this morning and this will continue
through the period. The winds will mainly be light and
variable./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       90  65  88  65 /   0   0  20  80
Meridian      89  63  89  65 /   0   0  10  80
Vicksburg     90  65  88  64 /   0   0  30  80
Hattiesburg   90  65  89  67 /   0   0  10  60
Natchez       90  65  88  65 /   0   0  30  70
Greenville    90  65  89  61 /   0   0  30  90
Greenwood     90  65  89  60 /   0   0  20  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

/15