


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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736 FXUS64 KJAN 171116 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 616 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning for parts of the area. - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air. Rain chances return Monday evening into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Today through Saturday Afternoon... Another round of quiet and dry weather conditions is in the forecast for today as near term guidance continues to highlight a ridging pattern over the MS River Valley. Cloud cover will start to gradually increase from the west this morning/early afternoon with daytime highs peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. The ridge will begin to migrate eastward later this evening. This will cause winds to gradually shift from N/NE to S/SW and allow for moisture to increase across the are ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Heading into the overnight period, sky conditions will be generally clear across our CWA. Expect overnight lows to dip into the upper 50s/low 60s across the area. Saturday morning will start off quiet as the ridge continues to migrate eastward. Heading into Saturday afternoon, near term guidance continues to show a mid-level trough pushing a cold front towards the ArkLaMiss region. This will bring scattered showers/t- storms chances (along with severe wx potential) to parts of the region. Saturday Evening through Sunday Morning... Severe storms will continue heading into Saturday evening/Saturday night with model consensus agreeing that the best area of instability and thermodynamic parameters will be confined across portions of north MS including portions of southeast AR and portions of northeast LA. A few adjustments have been made to the severe graphic for Saturday evening/Saturday night. The "Slight" risk has been expanded eastward to cover portions of north MS. The "Marginal" risk has been expanded further east to cover the remainder of our area. Primary hazards for areas highlighted in the "Slight" risk will be damaging winds up to 60 mph along with quarter to golfball size hail. A brief spin-up tornado cannot be ruled out. For NE LA to to parts of southern MS, a "Marginal" risk (1 out of 5) for severe wx will continued to be advertised. Main hazards will be damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. Saturday night/overnight into Sunday morning still looks to be the best timing for severe wx potential. Be sure to check back to refinement on severe wx potential and timing as the system evolves and we get closer to Saturday night. Storms will continue heading into early Sunday morning as the cold front continues through the area. Rain chances will come to an end late Sunday morning/Sunday afternoon as the cold front finally exits our CWA. Sunday Afternoon through next Thursday... The cold front will continue to push south away from our area Sunday afternoon. This will help bring drier air across our CWA and help keep temperatures average to slightly above average (roughly 5-10 degrees above climatology) in the forecast. A 1020mb sfc high pressure will build over our forecast area looking ahead into Monday keeping weather conditions quiet. Scattered showers will make a return to the area Monday night (15-20% rain chances) into Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening (20-30% chances) as long term guidance shows a shortwave trough disturbance moving moving over the southeast CONUS region. Rain chances will come to an end Tuesday evening into Wednesday as high pressure builds over the ArkLaMiss Region giving us a brief little break from the rain. Future guidance shows a cold front from the central CONUS slowly propagating southeastward towards our region. This will help introduce scattered showers across our area heading into Thursday. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 All TAF sites are VFR this morning and this will continue through the period. The winds will mainly be light and variable./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 90 65 88 65 / 0 0 20 80 Meridian 89 63 89 65 / 0 0 10 80 Vicksburg 90 65 88 64 / 0 0 30 80 Hattiesburg 90 65 89 67 / 0 0 10 60 Natchez 90 65 88 65 / 0 0 30 70 Greenville 90 65 89 61 / 0 0 30 90 Greenwood 90 65 89 60 / 0 0 20 90 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /15