735
FXUS64 KJAN 021455 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
855 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Very cold conditions are expected through tonight.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of the
    week with additional rain events Wednesday night through
    Friday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 854 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Rest of Today...Clouds will remain a near permanent fixture across
the forecast area today, while colder drier air advects into the
region.  The center of high pressure building in from the west
through mid-afternoon, will cause the pressure gradient to gradually
relax across the area.  Thus, causing the current breezy northwest
winds to subtly subside a bit in the afternoon.  Still, a cold
dreary winter day is on tap across the forecast area as highs this
afternoon struggle to climb out of the 40s.

The ongoing forecast is currently in pretty good shape. I`ll have to
keep an eye on temperatures through the day as guidance may be a tad
too high with them given the aforementioned abundance of cloud cover
over the region through much of the period and the continuing
northerly flow.  This may cause lower high temperatures this
afternoon than what`s currently being forecast.  Otherwise, outside
of the normal adjustments in hourly elements of the forecast based
on current trends, no major changes will be made on this morning`s
update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 250 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

A large and anomalously cold longwave trough continues to be the
primary weather influence for most of the CONUS, and that will
continue to be the case for at least the next several days with
colder and wetter than normal conditions expected.

As of this morning, an expansive stratus deck in a strong cold
advection pattern extends as far west as eastern OK/TX. A cold
thermal trough responsible for the stratus will gradually shift
east across the area this afternoon and eventually bring a
decrease in the stratus, but the combination of cold advection,
stratus, and blustery northwest wind will today very cold. As the
thermal trough shifts east tonight and surface high pressure
becomes centered over the forecast area, temperatures will drop
well into the 20s. The airmass will moderate Wednesday with
increased sun and diminishing wind helping to make for more
tolerable conditions.

Wednesday night through Monday: The next significant shortwave
trough will most likely approach Wed night into Thursday resulting
in the development of another frontal wave with increased warm
frontal ascent over the forecast area. Confidence is increasing
that moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be mostly confined to
southern portions of the area, and any severe weather potential
should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued
chilly airmass. Some guidance indicate that a second shortwave
trough will quickly follow and bring another round of moderate
rainfall Friday. Otherwise, drier conditions are most likely to
return for the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 540 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

IFR flight conditions to start the period as low stratus clouds
linger over the region. North/northwest winds around 10 kts with
higher gusts are expected. Cloud cover will start decreasing during
the evening hours, improving conditions to MVFR/VFR by the end of
the period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       44  26  57  40 /   0   0   0  60
Meridian      46  24  56  35 /  10   0   0  30
Vicksburg     45  27  56  41 /   0   0   0  70
Hattiesburg   51  29  61  43 /   0   0   0  50
Natchez       46  27  60  43 /   0   0   0  80
Greenville    42  27  50  40 /   0   0   0  50
Greenwood     42  25  53  38 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19