539
FXUS64 KJAN 040617 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1217 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Wet weather and cool temperatures will settle into the
    forecast area through Saturday.

  - Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible at times across
    portions of southern and southeastern Mississippi through
    Saturday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Clouds are on the increase this evening out ahead of a shortwave
that is approaching the area. Moisture will also increase
overnight and rain will move into the southwestern portions of the
area very early on Thursday and spread eastward through the
morning hours. Temperatures will remain generally steady
overnight, ranging from the low 30s across the Pine Belt area to
the low/mid 40s in Northeast Louisiana./15/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Our persistent low stratus deck has finally thinned and mixed out
across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to warm
into the 40s and 50s this afternoon, then drop into the 30s for most
places overnight. While low-level moisture this afternoon has mixed
out, the next surge of moisture is not far off.

A strengthening jet stream oriented from West Texas to New England
will keep broad synoptic scale lift in place over the Gulf Coast and
Deep South regions through the end of this week. Pattern will favor
steady rainfall in rounds as upper-level disturbances moving through
the flow aloft enhance mid-level frontogenesis. PWAT values over the
Northern Gulf are expected to be around 1.5+ inches. Values in this
range are above the 90th percentile for our forecast area, so
moisture transport will be efficient and some heavy rain is
possible. The plume will mostly be south of our area but will extend
across mainly the Pine Belt area of southeast Mississippi.
Expectation is that between tonight and the daytime Saturday,
average rainfall amounts will be about 1 to 2.5 inches for areas
south of Interstate 20, and about 1/4 inch to 1 inch for areas north
of Interstate 20. A reasonable upper range for rainfall for areas
along and south of the US Highway 84 corridor in southern
Mississippi would be localized amounts up to around 4 inches.

This pattern into the weekend will keep temps fairly stable between
mostly 40s and 50s. Then Sunday into next week, the pattern will
shift. The upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward, and
drier northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the country. A
reinforcing cold front and surface high pressure will push through
the eastern CONUS through the early week. Monday night appears to be
our coolest of the next 7 days, with the potential for temperatures
to drop below freezing (down to the mid 20s or so) with that air
mass. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1211 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

MVFR cigs were observed already in the nw at 530Z while -RA was
moving into the sw. Widespread RA/-RA will develop over the area
from the sw tonight and continue through 18Z before starting to
taper off from the nw during the aftn. This will result in
widespread IFR conditions prevailing through much of the TAF
period but LIFR cigs are expected to develop after 00Z Fri and
prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       39  49  40  57 /  90  30  30  40
Meridian      38  51  39  54 /  90  40  40  50
Vicksburg     37  49  39  57 /  70  20  30  30
Hattiesburg   44  55  45  58 /  90  60  60  60
Natchez       38  50  41  59 /  70  30  40  40
Greenville    34  44  37  51 /  60  10  10  20
Greenwood     35  47  36  54 /  80  10  10  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

15/NF/22