420
FXUS64 KJAN 101114 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
514 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Freeze warnings are in effect for central to northern
    portions of the area tonight, and for the entire forecast area
    Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Today through Tuesday night: Strong cold advection is underway and
will continue through today as unusually cold and amplified upper
level trough swings across the eastern CONUS. The cold and dry
polar airmass will keep temperatures from climbing out of the 40s
today for most of the area (up to 25 deg F departure from normal
for our area), and blustery northerly wind will make for very
uncomfortable conditions. In addition, the combination of very
low RH and gusty winds following recent dry weather raises some
concern for fire danger, but the cold temperatures should help to
mitigate the risk, so will maintain a limited threat for fire
danger in our hazard graphics. We continue to expect very cold
temperatures tonight with the surface high becoming centered over
the forecast area. Near record lows in the low to mid 20s will be
common outside of the Delta region. The thermal trough will exit
quickly to the east Tuesday, and this will result in quick
moderation of the temperatures as wind shifts to a more southerly
direction.

Wednesday through Sunday: Dry weather with a return to well above
normal temperatures can be expected from mid to late week and
into the weekend. While most guidance indicate a progressive upper
level pattern will take control over the CONUS and potentially
send a shortwave trough with thunderstorm potential toward the
forecast area by later this weekend, there are differences from
run to run in how phased the northern/southern streams will be. A
more separate southern stream system would be slower, and as of
now, that is the most common solution. The more phased and faster
full latitude system doesn`t have quite as much support, but it
is still a plausible outcome. With all that said and with
confidence in the forecast timing being low, will hold on getting
into much sensible weather detail at this point. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 514 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Northwest to
northerly winds will be gusty during the daytime hours today.
Winds will substantially subside by sunset this evening. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       46  26  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      47  23  57  37 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     48  27  60  44 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   51  26  60  38 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       50  27  61  44 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    44  30  58  44 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     44  26  58  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019-
     025>059.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023-025.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.

     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM CST Tuesday for
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

EC/DL