993
FXUS64 KJAN 201847
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Rain chances will increase tomorrow with a chance for
    thunderstorms as well

  - A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger
    storms will be a concern early next week (late Monday to
    Tuesday)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Through the weekend: We remain in an unseasonably warm and humid
regime with mostly zonal upper flow over the eastern CONUS.
However, a deepening trough this weekend will nudge a front across
the area tomorrow night into Saturday, with at least a temporary
airmass change to follow. With the front generally stalled from
the Southern Plains into the Mid South, convection over the past
24 hours has remained focused north and west of the area with only
scattered showers clipping our southeast AR and northwest MS Delta
counties through the day. As the front begins to advance eastward
overnight, a ribbon of richer moisture will advect into our area
ahead of the front with scattered showers expected to increase
into tomorrow morning. Through the daytime, coverage is expected
to increase, with most guidance focusing development across
central and south MS spreading eastward into AL. It`s likely our
northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS areas will miss out
on substantial rainfall accumulations during the day tomorrow,
and some of these areas may not receive any rain. On the other end
of the range of possibilities, very localized rainfall amounts of
2-3 inches may occur mostly into south and east MS where training
convection is possible. A brief period with sufficient overlay of
deep shear and instability resulting in a strong storm is also
possible during the daytime tomorrow, but the overall threat for
severe weather in our area is rather low. Much of the convection
will move out during the afternoon. Then, additional showers will
be possible ahead of the cold front sweeping eastward across the
area tomorrow night into Saturday with storms possible mainly over
north MS. Behind the front, dry and cooler (albeit still above
normal) conditions will carry Saturday night into Sunday.

Another round of low stratus clouds is a near certainty overnight
tonight into Friday morning, and it is likely some of this will
build down to become dense fog across portions of south and east
Mississippi. The potential fly in the ointment that we have not
had in the equation the past few nights is potential for
increasing showers disrupting fog development in the area where
fog is otherwise most favored. Fog could also be transient or
waver back and forth to low ceilings with acceptable visibility.
We have posted a limited dense fog threat for much of the
southeastern portion of the area for tonight and will allow later
shifts to make refinement decisions based on guidance and
observational trends. /DL/

Next week (Monday-Wednesday): As shortwave ridge builds eastward
to start the work week, a more potent cold core low aloft will be
moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains.
Sharp jet energy (60-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will
swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by
early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more
potent surface 1005-1006mb low across the Central Plains and
drive a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong
southwesterly shear (25-45kts) will set up but remain mostly
line-parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the
62-65F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With
southwesterly mean bulk shear, limited residence time of warm
sector and less favorable timing closer to the diurnal minimum,
this looks to be short duration potential. Can`t rule out some low
end (non-zero) strong to severe potential Monday night into early
Tuesday morning but holding off mention in HWO. Rain totals will
be sufficient, up to around 2 inches or even locally higher in
convection or areas of training in line-parallel situations.
However, recent dryness lowers confidence enough to not add
anything in hazard graphics for now. Pattern into mid week gets
more sketchy as synoptic/surface features are in multiple camps,
with Euro more progressive with the front and less sharp of
longwave trough/continued ascent and more zonal flow, while GFS
more sharp cold core over the Great Lakes/northern Plains and
continued southwesterly flow and rain chances. Sticking with rain
chances from the blended guidance for now. If features are more
progressive, 1028-1030mb surface high will bring drier, cooler and
more seasonable conditions into mid to late next week. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Though ceilings have recovered in most areas, areas of MVFR
stratus deck still persist mainly in the southern half of MS and
northeast LA/southeast AR. Ceilings are expected to recover to
VFR within the next few hours. Scattered SHRA will be possible
across mainly southeast AR/north MS through the remainder of the
day. Scattered mainly light SHRA are possible across the entire
area overnight, then additional development is expected during
the daytime Friday with TS also possible. Another round of low
clouds is expected late tonight with ceilings ranging from MVFR at
sites farther north to LIFR conditions across portions of south
and east MS. Fog will also be possible again, especially in the
corridor between HBG and MEI and across southeast MS. Fog should
improve by mid-morning, but at least MVFR ceilings may persist
through much of the daytime hours. /DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  78  64  78 /  50  80  20  10
Meridian      60  77  62  78 /  30  70  30  10
Vicksburg     64  80  63  78 /  50  70  20  10
Hattiesburg   63  82  64  83 /  20  60  10  10
Natchez       65  82  64  80 /  50  60  20  20
Greenville    65  79  60  75 /  50  60  30  10
Greenwood     63  77  62  76 /  40  70  30  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/DC