011
FXUS64 KJAN 182354
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
654 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

As the remains of this tropical disturbance over our region become
absorbed in the general flow over the CONUS, the chance for
showers and thunderstorms will shift northwestward and then out of
our area by Sunday. Cannot rule out isolated heavy storms, but
there is no organized flash flooding threat with this system at
this time. Otherwise expected showers and embedded thunderstorms
to continue pivoting over our region through tomorrow.

In the wake of the tropical disturbance, upper-level ridging will
generally reestablish its presence over the region and retrograde to
the west. Ensemble mean 500mb height values place a 594dam ridge
squarely over the Interstate 40 corridor through the Ozarks and Mid-
South regions. This should promote hot weather and keep precip
chances a little more restricted in our forecast area. Current
guidance keeps POPs on the periphery of this ridge - mainly south
and east of the Natchez Trace corridor. More heat headlines will
likely be needed next week with the potential for more 105 to 110
or greater heat index values. A multi-day stretch of heat index
values over 110 degrees may end up warranting Significant to
Extreme heat stress wording as we move into next week. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 647 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

SHRA/TSRA activity is waning and will continue to diminish through
the TAF period. This will result in prevailing VFR until after
07Z when lowered ceilings and brief patchy fog could result in
flight categories to MVFR/LIFR through 10Z when conditions could
improve. While SHRA/TSRA activity will increase after 18Z,
isolated nature of coverage precludes mention in the TAF. /86/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       74  91  74  95 /  30  50   0  20
Meridian      73  92  73  95 /  30  40   0  20
Vicksburg     76  90  75  95 /  30  50   0  10
Hattiesburg   75  94  75  97 /  20  50   0  20
Natchez       74  91  73  94 /  20  50   0  20
Greenville    75  89  75  93 /  30  40   0  20
Greenwood     76  89  75  93 /  30  50   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035.

LA...None.
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

NF/NF/LP