140
FXUS64 KJAN 180532 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1232 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Updated POPs and weather into the overnight hours following the
latest radar trends and expected downstream motions of a current
cluster of storms in East Mississippi. Cluster should hold
together for a while longer as it moves NNW. Brief heavy downpours
and some thunder will accompany this activity, but most of the
remainder of the area should see only light rain through the
night. Rest of the forecast thinking remains on track. /NF/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight and Tomorrow...

Afternoon showers and storms will be diminishing overnight with rain
chances ending by midnight. Overnight lows will be seasonably warm
with deep layer moisture remaining in place and associated dewpoints
in the mid/upper 60s helping to support overnight lows in the lower
to middle 70s F. Remnant convective debris and high cirrus from a
tropical feature well to our south will likely result in skies
partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will remain light and generally out
of the south.

By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered near the southeastern CONUS
coast will be strengthening and beginning to retrograde, resulting
in markedly increased heights across the area. As the tropical wave
being monitored by the NHC in the Gulf of Mexico begins to slowly
drift west, deep layer moisture will consolidate in the western Gulf
while drier continental air spills westward into our area. This
combination of a drying low level environment with increasing
heights aloft will result in noticeable increases in temperatures
and a reduction in rain chances through the upcoming week.

Later This Week..

The pattern will remain rather stagnant locally through the week as
the deep layer ridge continues to strengthen and expand its
influence westward. 500 mb anomalies will likely range 7 to 10 dam
above climate normals by the weekend with some areas threatening
triple digits for afternoon highs. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm can`t be ruled out through this week, but coverage
will likely be quite sparse as PWs fall below 1.6 inches and
overall upper subsidence controls the synoptic pattern.

Triple digit temperatures will be possible and 96-99 F temperatures
likely across the area as we move into this weekend. Uncertainties
mostly concerning how much boundary layer moisture will remain which
will determine peak-heating dewpoints and therefor maximum apparent
temperatures will make excessive heat hazard forecasts challenging
but some heat-related outlook appears likely at some point. /86/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

High clouds as a result of this afternoon`s convection will
plague the area through much of the overnight hours. Some
scattered low clouds, and potentially some patchy fog, are
possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi around day break.
This could cause flight categories to briefly fall to MVFR/IFR
status between mainly 09-13Z. Both ceilings and any reduced
visibility will quickly begin improving after sunrise. VFR flight
categories will then prevail at all area TAF sites through the
remainder of the forecast period. Winds will be calm to light from
the east overnight, increasing to between 8-10 knots by late
morning, with a few gusts reaching to around 20 knots possible at
times. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       87  73  91  73 /  10   0   0   0
Meridian      88  71  91  71 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     87  73  91  72 /  20   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   88  73  92  72 /  20   0  10   0
Natchez       84  72  90  72 /  30  10  20   0
Greenville    89  73  92  73 /  10   0   0   0
Greenwood     88  73  92  73 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19