054
FXUS64 KJAN 011735 AAC
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1135 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - There is a low probability (~15-25%) for minor impacts from
    light freezing rain over far northwest portions of the area
    late tonight.

  - Widespread rain is expected today through tonight, and this
    will be followed by cold and dry conditions Tuesday and
    Tuesday night.

  - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of
    the week with additional rain events Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rest of this Afternoon...A disturbance embedded in west southwest
flow aloft will begin lifting northeast through the Lower
Mississippi River Valley today.  As this happens, moisture currently
in the form of widespread cloud cover across the region associated
with it, will overspread the forecast area.  As this moisture
steadily overruns the drier air currently in place over the region,
light rain will eventually begin falling and will likewise
overspread the CWA during the course of the afternoon. Essentially
this, along with continued cold air over region will yield a chilly
wet afternoon across the forecast area as highs range from the upper
30s across the Delta to around 60 across the Pine Belt.

The overall forecast is in good shape.  Other than a few minor
adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on trends, no
major changes will be made on this morning`s update. /19/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today through tonight: Cold and wet conditions are expected today,
and we still have at least a small risk for minor ice impacts
associated with light freezing rain over far northwest portions of
the area. A significant shortwave trough is expected to move
across the Southern Plains today and into our region tonight.
Moist isentropic ascent is underway as return flow has developed
above a shallow cold polar airmass entrenched across the region,
and we should see light rain/drizzle increase across western
portions of the area early this morning. Over far northwest
portions of the forecast area (mainly Ashley and Bolivar counties),
surface temperatures will be near to just below freezing as
precip chances begin, and this will raise the potential for a few
slick spots on bridges/overpasses, which have chilled down in the
recent cold. Otherwise, all rain is expected later today through
this evening with a few locations potentially receiving as much
as an inch of rainfall. A brief change-over back to light wintry
precip can`t be ruled out over northwest portions of the area late
tonight in a strong cold advection pattern as the system departs,
but no significant impacts are expected if this does occur in our
area.

Tuesday through Wednesday night look drier and quite cold,
especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the
departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in
strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much
above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to
even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and
diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow
temperatures to fall well into the 20s for most of the area, then
modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a
good bit by Wednesday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday through Sunday: The next significant shortwave trough
will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of
another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the
forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding
the potential for a couple of rounds of moderate to locally
rainfall in the Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should
be suppressed to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather
potential should be mostly south of the forecast area in the
continued chilly airmass. On the northern side of the system,
we`ll need to monitor for additional light freezing rain threats
due to the influx of fresh polar air. Otherwise, drier conditions
are mostly likely to return for the weekend with seasonably cool
temperatures. /EC/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Flight categories will gradually deteriorate at all area TAF
sites through the afternoon and evening as both low stratus and
eventually light rain set in across the region. Categories
currently look to remain at mainly IFR levels tonight into Tuesday
morning, with most sites recovering to at least MVFR status by
18Z Tuesday. Winds this afternoon will maintain an easterly
component between 3-8 knots, but they`ll become breezy from the
northwest overnight into early Tuesday as a surface low pressure
system develops and lifts northeast across the area. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       50  32  47  26 /  90  90   0   0
Meridian      52  35  47  24 /  80 100  10   0
Vicksburg     48  32  46  26 /  90  90   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  42  53  29 /  60 100  10   0
Natchez       52  32  47  27 /  90 100   0   0
Greenville    40  30  42  27 /  80  90   0   0
Greenwood     45  30  43  24 /  90 100   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

19