768
FXUS64 KJAN 181948
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
148 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

  - Dense fog will impact areas south of I-20 again Wednesday
    morning.

  - Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the
    end of this week.

  - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late
    this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Through Wednesday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis
showed a closed low over northern Illinois. This closed low will
track east and open up tonight as it supports an attendant surface
low that will also be tracking east. The surface low will drag a
weakening cold front into northern Mississippi that will bring a
diminishing chance of light rain close to our northern most zones.
As the chance for any measurable rain in our CWA remains too low to
carry pops wl continue a dry forecast through the period. The main
concern for tonight remains the redevelopment of dense fog across
our south. The surface ridge will continue to nose west across the
Gulf coast through Wednesday. This will maintain a moist low level
feed from the Gulf into our CWA. Areas of dense fog are likely along
the Highway 84 Corridor and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for
our southern zones. Wednesday in addition to the surface ridging
across the south, ridging aloft will strengthen over our region.
This will help lead to well above normal afternoon highs in the
lower 80s at most locations. Although most sites will remain a few
degrees shy of record highs, the record high is only 81F at
Greenwood for the date so that site may set a new record high. Lows
tonight will be well above normal as well. Most sites will fall shy
of record warm lows but the record warm low for Greenville is only
62F so that site may tie or set a new record warm low for the date.
/22/

Wednesday night through Monday: The prevailing upper-level
weather pattern across the CONUS for the remainder of the week
through this weekend will feature ridging centered over the Gulf
Coast/Southeast and troughing over the West/Southwest. Minor
shortwave disturbances will be deflected north of our forecast
area under this pattern, and then a more pronounced shortwave
trough will eject eastward from the western trough Thursday
through Saturday. The main chance for showers or thunderstorms in
this 7-day forecast cycle will track with this disturbance and its
associated low pressure system.

At this time, some thunder is possible during the Thursday night
through Friday time frame, but the lack of height falls and weak
low-level forcing across our area suggest no organized risk for
severe thunderstorms at this time. Additionally, the wave may pass
during the late night to early morning hours with limited
surface-based instability and warm mid-level temperature profile.
The expectation at this time is for potentially heavy rain showers
and embedded thunderstorms with localized rainfall totals of one
to two inches possible. Current guidance favors the heaviest
rainfall setting up south of the I-20 corridor. The window for the
most significant heavy-rain potential looks to be Friday
afternoon and early evening. Then a cold front should arrive
Friday night and moderate temperatures a little closer to normal
for mid/late November as we go through the weekend into early next
week. /NF/EC/KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

A gusty south wind to 20kts this afternoon wl subside by 00Z.
The MVFR cigs at several TAF sites will lift to VFR by 19Z and
VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until after 07Z. After 07Z MVFR
cigs wl begin developing in the north while IFR/LIFR conditions
develop cntrl and south. These lower flying conditions wl take
until after 15Z Wed to improve to VFR. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  83  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      60  83  58  81 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     64  82  61  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   61  84  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       62  83  60  81 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    64  81  63  79 /   0   0   0  10
Greenwood     64  82  62  80 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
     MSZ057>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ024-
     026.

AR...None.
&&

$$

22/KP/22