543
FXUS62 KJAX 241836
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
136 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog Potential Daily Through Mid Week. Visibilities down to
  a quarter mile or less possible, especially inland

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious
with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Rest of today, pleasant weather this afternoon with temps in the 70s
and lower 80s on easterly flow up to 10-15 mph in some areas. We
will probably struggle to meet any record highs today. Mostly
sunny with some partly cloudy skies in the interior areas with
at least scattered cumulus there. A high pressure system will
continue to push northeast of the area tonight with winds
becoming light to calm overnight. A few showers are possible
over the coastal waters as a weak frontal boundary stalled near
our southern zones works northward overnight. The coastal waters
are where the better low level convergence and any instability
will be overnight. The main forecast challenge will be the fog
and stratus forecast with indications from cross-over temps and
the light winds suggesting at least 3-5SM visibilities, but some
locally lower visibility are certainly possible. The HREF shows
potential for areas of dense fog for inland areas which seems
plausible given that dewpoints may recover some later in the
afternoon and early evening. Even so, the fall off in temps
tonight may not be as quick as last night so it calls into
question how strong the radiation inversion will be tonight.
SREF and HREF dense fog chances for tonight are not as high
compared to this morning. In any event, conditions are favorable
for fog development especially inland areas based on persistent
and latest guidance, dense fog advisories may be needed once
again some areas. Low temps will be mild tonight, near or just
slightly warmer than last night, in the mid to upper 50s inland
and lower 60s coastal areas. These temps are about 5-10 deg
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure continues to shift further north and east of the area
throughout the short term period as a frontal system approaches from
the northwest. Areas to possibly widespread dense fog will start us
off Tuesday Morning before dissipating by around mid morning,
leaving a mild day with a mix of sun and clouds Tuesday Afternoon
and Evening. Southerly flow will result in overall warmer temps
compared to Tuesday, as low to mid 70s will be common except for
some upper 70s near the immediate coast. Fog will be likely
once again late Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning with the
moisture advection off the Gulf. Low temps Wednesday Morning
similarly will be a few degrees warmer: generally in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Southwest flow picks up on Wednesday ahead of the approaching cold
front. Current thinking is for the front to enter interior southeast
GA by about late morning Wednesday, pushing across northeast FL late
evening through the start of Wednesday Night. Good news given the
current ongoing drought situation is this front is expected to
feature more showers/convection as compared to the previous one
earlier in the week. The bad news is that rain chances will
generally drop off the further south and east you go Wednesday and
Wednesday Night as more favorable upper level conditions remain
north of the region and diurnal instability decreases as the
boundary moves through northeast FL. In summary, highest chances for
rainfall will be the further north and west you go, with PoPs
ranging from around 15-20% near Jacksonville and Gainesville to the
40-60% range north and west of Waycross. Isolated thunder will also
be possible, though not expecting significant t`storm/strong t`storm
chances at this time.

High temps Wednesday will be a bit trickier based on the FROPA
timing as well as rainfall/cloud coverage. Main idea will be 70s
generally north and west of Waycross and lower to mid 80s south
and east. Modest to strong cool air advection fills in Wednesday
Night behind the front which brings chances for showers gradually
to an end with decreasing clouds. Strong gradient will be expected
given the cold advection, with low temps ranging from the 40s over
Southeast GA and the upper Suwannee Valley to the 50s south and
east.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Cooler temps and lower humidity prevail over the area for Thanksgiving
Day and into Friday with high pressure building in from the northwest.
The associated high slides north of the region by Saturday before
lifting north and east of the region off the Mid Atlantic coast
by the end of the weekend. High pressure in control will mean
dry/fair weather will prevail for most of the long term period.
Temps end the week generally below normal before trending closer
to and possibly even above normal for late in the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
VFR clouds with scattered to broken cumulus around 3500-4500 ft
which should gradually diminish by 00z-03z. We should again see some
lowering vsby tonight with low stratus as well. Due to differing
guidance, included mainly MVFR vsby for inland TAFs, but also
inserted TEMPO for LIFR 07z-11z for VQQ. Also, hinting at potential
for IFR for GNV and JAX with a MVFR vsby and scattered low clouds
below 500 ft. VFR should return 15z Tuesday. Sfc winds easterly up
to 5-11 kt and then decreasing tonight. Southerly flow about 4-8 kft
expected on Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure system will move northeast and east of the area
through Tuesday resulting in breezy winds turning gradually to the
southeast and south by mid week. A strong cold front approaches from
the west on Wednesday. The front will press south of the local
waters Wednesday night into Thursday, trailed by northwest to north
winds approaching Small Craft Advisory conditions, which will
continue on Friday and possibly into Saturday as winds shift to the
northeast.

Rip Currents: Low to locally moderate risk for today and then
low to moderate again on Tuesday with surf to about 1 to
possibly 2 foot.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


 -AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
- CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY AND
  FRIDAY AFTERNOON

High pressure will be north of the area today and shift east into
the Western Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, with northeasterly winds
veering to the southeast to southwest during this time frame and dry
conditions continuing. Fog is expected to develop once again inland
during the early morning hours Tuesday as a warm front lifts north
across the area with very little rain chances as it does so. A cold
front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday morning and
create breezy southwesterly winds before moving through the region
Wednesday Night and shifting flow northwesterly. Scattered to
numerous showers will spread across Southeast GA and the Suwannee
Valley, but will decrease in coverage to the coast with overall
precip amounts on the light side. Enhanced flow both ahead of and
behind the front will increase surface and transport winds and there
produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday & into Thursday
inland.

A much drier airmass arrives Thursday and Friday as strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest. Very low dewpoints into the
20s inland will create critically low Min RH values over the area
Thursday and Friday. Elevated inland winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25-
30 mph will also be close to Red Flag conditions and further
forecasts will need to be updated for this potential. Good to high
level dispersions expected to end the week.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Areas of Dense fog are expected
to redevelop tonight into early Tuesday morning, with patchy fog
possible Wednesday morning ahead of the approaching cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                       MON 11/24  TUE 11/25  WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)  86/2014    85/1992    84/1946
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)  84/2014    83/1992    83/2020
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)  86/1948    85/1955    84/1973
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)  83/1986    83/1986    84/1973

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  56  81  60  78 /   0   0  10  50
SSI  62  77  62  78 /   0   0   0  10
JAX  58  83  60  83 /   0   0   0  20
SGJ  63  80  61  83 /   0   0   0  10
GNV  58  85  60  83 /   0   0   0  20
OCF  58  83  59  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$