613
FXUS62 KJAX 141255
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
855 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 855 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Little change in the forecast today with prevailing north to northeast
winds, and little chance of showers for the coastal areas. The highest
rain chance will be through early this aftn for the southern marine
waters, and mainly St Johns and Flagler counties, and possibly
isolated showers and tstorms for portions of Putnam and Marion
counties this afternoon. These latter 2 counties may realize
higher instability this afternoon than yesterday with model
forecast MLCAPE rising up to about 1800-2000 J/kg. But, otherwise,
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and dry. The pinched gradient
along the coast is weaker today and so expect northeasterly winds
of up to 15-20 mph with few higher gusts for the coastal areas
and generally up to 10-15 mph inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Local Nor`easter conditions today will fade tonight as low
pressure along frontal boundary well offshore over the Atlantic
waters lifts northward towards the Carolinas. This will slowly
weaken the pressure gradient and onshore/NE flow through the
period. Still expect breezy to windy conditions along the NE FL/SE
GA coastal areas with NE flow at 15-25G30-35 mph today, likely
remaining below wind advisory levels, before weakening to NE 15G25
mph tonight. Over inland areas NE winds will increase to near
breezy levels at 15G25 mph this afternoon before weakening to 5-10
mph again tonight. The onshore flow will continue scattered to
numerous showers and storms over the Atlantic Coastal waters
through tonight, while only widely scattered showers are expected
along the I-95 corridor and as far inland as the St. Johns River
Basin from JAX southward to Palatka today, with isolated storm
potential along the NE FL coastal areas and inland to the US 17
corridor/St. Johns River Basin. Max temps will continue at
slightly below normal levels in the onshore flow with lower 80s
along the Atlantic Coast to the middle 80s along the I-95/US-17
corridors to the upper 80s over far inland NE FL/inland SE GA
areas. Weakening pressure gradient and mostly clear skies over
inland areas will continue below normal temps with lows in the
upper 50s over inland SE GA and lower/middle 60s over inland NE FL
and near 70F along the Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Monday, the upper level pattern will feature a closed low over the
region that will retrograde NW onto the Carolinas south of ridging
parked over the Great Lakes. A surface weak coastal low NE of our
local waters will slowly move towards the Carolina coastal waters
through the day and allow our local pressure gradient to relax as
it moves further away and less organized coastal showers activity
that will move onto the coast south of the Jacksonville Beaches
with perhaps an isolated T`storm. The onshore NNE winds will be
less at the coast 12-18 mph gusting to 25 mph and 10-15 mph inland.
Skies will be mostly sunny west of I-95. Highs will be in the low
80s at the coast, the mid 80s along/west of I-95 and the upper 80s
much further inland.

Monday night, clear skies will allow lows to fall in the low 60s
over inland SE GA and the Suwannee Valley and mid 60s over NE FL
south of I-10, the upper 60s along I-95 and the low 70s confined
at the NE FL coast with coastal winds diminishing to 5-10 mph
overnight. Few coastal showers will remain offshore.

Tuesday, The upper low will lift slowly towards the Mid Atlantic
states and pull the surface low onto the Carolina Outer Banks.
Drier air rotating through the base of the trough will keep our
area dry with only a few showers over southern zones near the St
Johns river/coast where higher dewpoints/low level moisture will
remain allowing partly cloudy skies, but sunny farther inland.
Highs will be a little below normal again due to low heights from
the low aloft near the region and onshore northeast winds keeping
highs along the coast in the low/mid 80s and warming to the upper
80s west of I-95.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

During the period, the pattern of light NE onshore flow continues.
The upper low will lift away to the north Wednesday and Thursday
and the surface low will weaken as it travels up the Mid Atlantic
coast before dissipating on Thursday. Low to mid level ridging over
the deep south will keep moisture levels below normal with dry
conditions Wednesday with southern zones having an increase in
moisture from the south Thursday leading scattered showers and
isolated T`storms in the afternoon across north central FL.

Friday, an upstream mid to upper level trough will swing across
the Midwest into the OH valley with shortwave energy from the
eastern Gulf lifting NE in response to the upstream approaching
trough. This will lift a frontal boundary northward along the FL
peninsula and spread more showers into southern zones Friday and
into more of the area by next weekend with a risk of locally heavy
rainfall returning to coastal portions of NE FL.

Temperatures will return to near normal levels during the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Mostly clear to partly cloudy today with VFR prevailing. There is
potential for MVFR cloud decks again today from about 13z-17z but
lower than yesterday. Estimating that chance at about 40-50 percent
at SGJ, CRG, and GNV, and well below 40 percent for the rest of
the sites, though still quite moist via model fields for scattered
to broken cumulus and stratocumulus late morning and early aftn.
Winds strengthen from out of the northeast by around 15-18z,
extending over JAX metro sites with gusts rising up to around 20
knots. Winds decrease after sunset to 5 knots or less inland,
remaining closer to 10 knots along the Atlantic Coast while VFR
conds continue.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

A wave of low pressure will track slowly northward along a stalled
frontal boundary well offshore through early next week as high
pressure persists northwest of the region. Gusty northeast winds
between these two features will continue Small Craft Advisory
conditions across the local waters today before the onshore flow
slowly weakens early next week and seas slowly subside during the
upcoming week. Waves of showers and isolated to scattered storms
are expected, mainly across the northeast Florida waters. Shower
and storm activity will slowly decrease during the upcoming week.

Rip Currents: NE flow will continue a high risk of rip currents
through Monday, as surf/breakers of 4-6 ft today will subside
slowly to 3-5 ft on Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

Minor Coastal flooding/Coastal Flood Advisory will continue
through Monday during each high tide cycle along the NE FL
beachfront and along the St. Johns River Basin as strong NE flow
continues. Latest PETSS guidance suggests the SE GA and Nassau
county coastal areas should remain just below Minor Flood levels
during this afternoon high tide cycle. For now peak high tides
along the NE FL coast should remain around 2 ft MHHW and in the
1.5 to 2 ft MHHW range in the St. Johns River Basin, with only
some locally Moderate peak flood levels this afternoon, so will
hold off on any Coastal Flood Warning upgrade with this package.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  87  59  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  83  68  82  68 /   0  10  10  10
JAX  85  64  86  66 /  10  10  20   0
SGJ  84  69  85  70 /  20  20  30  10
GNV  88  62  90  65 /  10  10  10   0
OCF  87  64  89  67 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ125-132-137-
     138-225-233-325-333-633.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450-
     452-454.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470-472-
     474.

&&

$$