092
FXUS62 KJAX 110119
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
819 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Tonight and Early Tuesday Morning. Areas Included: All of Southeast GA & Locations West of the St. Johns River. Widespread Frost and a Light Freeze Tuesday Night & Early Wednesday

- Wind Chill Values Fall to 20- 25 Early on Tuesday Morning. Cold Weather Advisories in Effect for All Locations Except Coastal SE GA

- Gale Warning Coastal Waters Tonight

- Elevated Fire Danger Expected for Most of Our Area on Tuesday

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 817 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

No big changes to the forecast this evening.

Significant deep upper level trough axis is swinging southeast
through Georgia and the FL panhandle into our area this evening.
The 00Z sounding reflects a new daily minimum value for 500 mb
height of 5,640 m for Nov 11th (previously 5,668 according to
the Storm prediction Center`s Sounding climatology) highlighting
the rarity of the strength of the trough over the region. Under
strong ridging to the west of the region, strong arctic surface
high pressure is sinking across the TX Gulf coast into the mouth
of the MS river with a lee side trough over the Blue ridge of
north Georgia into the Piedmont of the Carolinas extending SW
from a surface low near Cape Cod. The surface high will shift ESE
towards the central Gulf coast into the FL panhandle and southern
GA and AL by sunrise and breezy west northwest winds 15-20 mph
gusting to 30 mph will shift northwesterly overnight and slowly
lessen by late Tuesday morning to 10-15 mph.

These winds coupled with subfreezing lows for SE Georgia and NE
Florida west of the St Johns river will produce very low wind
chill values into the 20s across along and south of I-10 and into
the upper teens around 20 over SE Georgia after midnight. Outside
of the Freeze warning, lows will fall to the low to mid 30s from
Mayport south to Flagler Beach west to the St Johns river.

Veterans Day, the trough axis will shift eastward into the Atlantic
waters off the SE coast with sunny skies, but still chilly as
lighter north to northwest winds continue cold air advection into
the region. Highs will only reach the low 50s over SE Georgia and
the mid 50s over NE Florida. There remains potential for breaking
daily record lows and daily record low maximums at Jacksonville
and our climate sites for Tuesday (Veterans Day), but a warm up
will bring near normal temperatures back to our area by Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Forecast remains on track as unseasonably cold high pressure
builds into the local area with clear skies and brisk NW winds at
15-25 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph this afternoon and evening and
slowly diminish to 10-15 mph by the overnight hours, with
strongest winds remaining along the Atlantic Coast. Widespread
advective freeze event is expected in the strong cold air
advection regime with low temps in the mid/upper 20s across inland
SE GA and the Suwannee Valley of inland North FL. Lows closer to
30F for coastal SE GA and along the US 17/US 301 corridors from
JAX southward and just west of the St. Johns River Basin and
Freeze Warning remains in place. Temps will fall into the lower to
middle 30s from JAX southward along the I-95 corridor from the St.
Johns River Basin eastward to the Atlantic beachfront locations,
with some brief temps right around 32F, but likely not long enough
to warrant a Freeze Warning. These elevated NW winds during the
overnight and early morning hours combined with freezing temps
will push the Wind Chill values down around 20F and the Cold
Weather Advisory will remain in effect from 2am-8am time frame.
Dew point temps falling into the teens and elevated winds tonight
will prevent much in the way of any significant frost formation,
except for some patchy frost in colder/wind protected locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure will move off to the east resulting in a shift in
prevailing flow to become more out of the west, with surface level
westerly winds becoming more mild through the period due to the
weakening of the pressure gradient. Otherwise dry weather
conditions will continue through the middle of the week with clear
skies and early morning frost/freeze conditions for inland areas
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Temperatures for the
forecast area will start to rise going into midweek with daily
high temps rising from out of the 50s on Tuesday up into the upper
60s by Wednesday. Overnight low temperatures will similarly rise
from out of the upper 20s and lower 30s for inland areas up into
the lower 40s by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1209 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Dry weather conditions will continue through Saturday with a
potential for increased chances of rainfall by Sunday as high
pressure moves off into the Atlantic and moisture and instability
extending from the low pressure system off to the west extends
towards the region ahead of an advancing frontal boundary.
Temperatures for the end of the week and through the weekend will
experience a gradual warming trend with high and low temps
expected to rise to be above the seasonal average by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

The 00Z TAF period will feature prevailing VFR conditions under
clear skies with breezy west northwest winds around 15 knots
gusting to 20-25 knots through 06Z inland and until 12-14Z along
the coast. As strong high pressure moves closer to the area
Tuesday morning, the inland TAF sites will diminish and become
more northwesterly 10-12 knots with gusts 15-20 knots through
18-20Z before diminishing under 10 knots and turning more
northerly. Coastal winds will lessen to around 10 knots from
the northwest at SSI and more northerly at SGJ by 21Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Strong high pressure building into the southeastern states will
result in frequent Gale Force wind gusts through late tonight.
High pressure will shift eastward on Tuesday, with strong
northwesterly winds on Tuesday morning gradually diminishing
during the afternoon hours. High pressure will then become
centered directly over our local waters by late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. High pressure will then shift southward over the
Florida peninsula on Thursday ahead of a weakening dry frontal
boundary that will push southward across our area on Thursday
afternoon and evening then stall south of the local waters on
Friday.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents through Tuesday as
surf/breakers increase back into the 2-4 ft range due to long
period North to Northeast swells pushing into the surf zone.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1209 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

High pressure building in from the northwest will deliver a very
dry airmass with unseasonably cold temperatures arriving this
evening through Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Brisk
northwest winds of about 15-25 mph gusting up to 30-35 mph and
coupled with dewpoints down into the 20s/teens will lower MinRH
values below critical levels. A Red Flag warning will be in effect
this afternoon for inland Northeast FL areas where Min RH values
fall to the mid 20s and significant fire weather potential is
heightened. Additionally, breezy surface and transport winds will
also yield high daytime dispersions today.

High Pressure will then shift over the region by Tuesday and after
a chilly start, afternoon MinRH values will fall below critical
levels into the low to mid 20s, then repeating again Wednesday
afternoon as high pressure slowly weakens over the region, but
light winds should remove potential for a Fire Weather Watch each
day. The high will settle south of the area early Thursday as a
dry cold front moves in from the north with a brief increase in
transport winds helping bring good to high level dispersions over
the area as high pressure rebuilds north of the area. Moisture
levels will recover above critical levels Thursday through the
weekend with a return of scattered showers by Sunday as another
storm system moves in from the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Record low maximum temperatures for Tuesday:

KJAX: 53/1917
KCRG: 59/1996
KGNV: 55/1953
KAMG: 53/1968

Record low temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday:

November 11:
KJAX: 35/1977
KCRG: 37/1991
KGNV: 31/1943
KAMG: 27/1943

November 12:
KJAX: 31/2011
KCRG: 35/2011
KGNV: 30/2011
KAMG: 27/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  27  51  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  33  53  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  30  55  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  34  55  38  68 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  29  56  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  30  56  31  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-225-
     232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for FLZ021-
     023-024-030-031-035-038-120-124-125-132-136>138-140-220-225-
     232-233-236-237-240-322-325-333-340-422-425-433-522-533-633.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for FLZ021-023-024-030-031-035-120-124-132-136-137-140-220-
     225-232-236-237-240-322-340-422-425-522.

GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for
     GAZ132>136-149-151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.

     Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
     for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450-452-454-470-472-
     474.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 1 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-
     454.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ472-
     474.

&&

$$