339
FXUS62 KJAX 291152
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
652 AM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Freeze Warning Early Saturday Morning for Inland Southeast GA &

- High Risk for Rip Currents at NE Florida Beaches Today

- Beneficial Rainfall Expected Monday Night through Tuesday. Strong
Thunderstorm Potential on Tuesday

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Warmer today and continued breezy with more passing clouds. After an
inland morning freeze and frost, temperatures will warm into the 60s
across most locations to lower 70s toward our north-central FL zones
roughly from Gainesville toward Palatka southward under breezy
easterly winds. Dry conditions continue, however, low level clouds
will increase from the Atlantic coast through the day as a coastal
trough forms offshore. A few light, spotty coastal sprinkles will be
possible tonight as the trough pivots northward up the coast, but
measurable precipitation is not expected.

With the influx of shallow level moisture today under east winds,
introduced patchy fog after midnight tonight for locations near the
I-95 corridor in southeast GA to the St. Johns River basin of
northeast Florida. Lows will range from the low/mid 40s tonight
across inland southeast GA to the 50s south of I-10 toward the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures will warm up Sunday with highs mainly in the 70s as a
warm front lifts northward over the forecast area, and a cold front
approaches from the northwest. Southwest steering flow will raise
PWATs just over an inch Sunday, increasing cold cover, however rain
chances will likely hold off until Monday but a few sprinkles are
possible Sunday. Rain chances remain at about 15-20% on Monday with
low thunder chances over land. High temperatures Monday will range
from the mid 60s over southeast Georgia and near 80 in north central
Florida. Higher rain chances will begin just after midnight Monday
night into early Tuesday morning for inland southeast Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday, a strengthening surface low will move across the area,
bringing early morning showers and thunderstorms, and much needed
rainfall across most of southeast Georgia and northeast Florida.
Strong thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday given high PWATs (1.5-
2.0 inches), a low level jet near 40-55 knots, and a low CAPE-high
shear environment. Rainfall totals are generally at about 0.25-0.75
inches (highest over inland southeast Georgia), with the NBM showing
highest probabilities for >1 inch over Coffee, Atkinson, and Jeff
Davis counties. By late evening, precipitation will be through the
forecast area, paving the way for a cooler night. Wednesday and
Thursday will be chillier, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s with
partly cloudy skies and northerly winds. At this time, low
temperatures mid-week are above freezing but perhaps some patchy
frost formation is possible over inland southeast Georgia.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
The 12Z TAF period will feature VFR conditions. Winds from the east
northeast will pick up later this morning and turn breezy 10-15 knots
with higher gusts along the coast to 20-25 knots as strong high
pressure to the north builds more to the north northeast today. Weak
inverted troughing will generate Atlantic stratocumulus clouds over
the waters and move them onshore after 20Z with cloud heights ranging
4.0-6.0 kft. Winds will subside some by 22Z-00Z to 6-10 knots inland
and around 10 knots at the coast, then 3-5 knots inland after 05Z
and remain 6-10 knots along the coast overnight, becoming easterly
at SGJ. Some patchy fog may form after 06Z tonight away from the
coast, but probabilities too low to include at this time.

&&

.MARINE...


High pressure builds northeast of the region today as a coastal
trough develops over the local waters. The coastal trough will break
down Sunday into Monday as a weakening front approaches from the
north then begins to stall just north of the local waters into
Monday night. This front will morph into a lifting warm front ahead
of a stronger frontal system as it approaches late Monday into
Tuesday. Southerly winds increase Tuesday near Small Craft levels
with a chance of thunderstorms. The front is expected to push south
of the local waters late Tuesday, then high pressure builds
northwest of the region mid-week as winds subside below Advisory
levels.

Rip Currents: SE GA Low Sunday
              NE FL Moderate Sunday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON THE SE GA COAST SUNDAY...



Moisture will recover Saturday as high pressure shifts more to the
northeast near the Mid Atlantic coast with breezy northeast winds
turning easterly and breezy by afternoon 10-15 with gusts to 25-30
mph, but with min RH levels above critical levels. Increasing
surface and transport winds will create areas of high daytime
dispersions. Sunday, light easterly winds will turn south to
southwesterly further inland as a cold front approaches from the
west. Weaker surface and transport winds will produce fair
dispersions. Chances for showers will increase Monday night as a
cold front stalls across the area. Tuesday, a stronger storm system
will bring the potential for isolated strong T`storms with a wetting
rainfall across most of the area.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS... Significant fog is not expected
over the next few nights.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  43  72  48  66 /   0  10  10  20
SSI  53  71  56  67 /  10  10  10  10
JAX  51  77  56  71 /  10  10  10  20
SGJ  58  76  61  74 /  10  10  10  20
GNV  52  79  57  76 /   0  10  10  20
OCF  53  79  58  78 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for FLZ021-023-024-
     030-035-120-220-322-422-522.
     High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for GAZ132>136-149-
     151>153-162-163-165-250-264-350-364.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$