663
FXUS62 KJAX 301741
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hurricane Imelda Local Impacts This Week. High Risk of Rip
  Currents, High Surf & Small Craft Advisory through Friday. Minor
  Coastal Flooding Possible Thursday through the Weekend. Monitor
  forecasts at hurricanes.gov

- Increased Chances of Showers/Storms Friday through Sunday.
  Multiple rounds of showers and a few storms. Locally heavy
  rainfall/flooding rain possible for coastal areas

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Breezy to Windy North to Northeast flow between Hurricane Imelda
off the FL East Coast and High Pressure ridge to the North and
Northwest will continue through tonight. Sustained wind speeds of
15-25G35 mph along the Atlantic Coastal areas this afternoon will
weaken to 10-20G30 mph tonight, while breezy winds of 15G25 mph
over inland areas will fade to 5-10 mph by the overnight hours
later tonight. The abundant cloud cover today and scattered
showers along the Atlantic Coastal areas will hold Max temps into
the upper 70s/near 80F this afternoon, while some sunny breaks
over inland areas should allow for some Max temps into the 80-85F
range. Scattered Rainfall chances along the Atlantic Coastal areas
this evening will become more isolated during the overnight hours
as Imelda continues to slowly pull away, while inland areas remain
dry with some partial clearing during the overnight hours. The
decreasing winds and some clearing skies over inland areas, will
allow for Min temps to fall into the lower 60s across inland SE GA
and the mid/upper 60s across inland NE FL, while the elevated
winds along the Atlantic Coast will only allow for temps to fall
into the lower/middle 70s. Likely too much wind for any
significant fog formation tonight, except for maybe some patchy
fog across far inland SE GA around sunrise Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Thursday night)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Strong high pressure will be located to the north Wednesday, with an
inverted trough along the coastal Atlantic waters. An enhance
pressure gradient between these two features will result in elevated
onshore flow. With the ridge in place inland areas will be dry, with
greatest chances for showers along the NE FL coast due to
convergence associated with coastal trough. Highs Wednesday will
range from the lower 80s at the coast, to the mid 80s inland.

For Wednesday night through Thursday the high will become stronger,
and centered more toward the northeast. The troughing will remain
along the coastal Atlantic waters. The best chances for showers
Wednesday night, will remain along the coast of NE FL. The best
chances for showers Thursday will generally be east of a line from
Gainesville to Brunswick. The chances will spread across all coastal
areas of SE GA and NE FL Thursday night.

There is a slight chance for a few thunderstorms to be embedded with
showers Wednesday through Thursday night.

Temperatures will trend near to a little below normal this period.
With the onshore flow, the coolest day time readings will be near
the coast, with the coolest night time readings inland.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

High pressure will remain centered to the northeast Friday and
Saturday, with inverted troughing over the coastal waters.
Precipitation chances will increase Friday into Saturday, with
greatest chances along the coast.

The high will move further away to the northeast Sunday through
Tuesday. The moist onshore flow will continue, with precipitation
chances spreading across area.

Daytime temperatures are expected to be near normal inland, and near
to below near the coast. Overnight lows will trend above normal this
period, especially near the coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Widespread MVFR CIGS continue at all NE FL/SE GA terminals, while
light rainfall will impact Atlantic coastal terminals through 00Z,
with some potential for IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS at SGJ during this
time frame. Gusty winds of 15G25 knots will continue for Atlantic
coastal terminals this afternoon, with lesser winds inland.
Rainfall chances diminish at coastal terminals this evening with
just lingering VCSH, while CIGS lift slightly into the 2000-3000
ft range at all terminals tonight, but too soon to place any
confidence in any widespread VFR conds, but may be possible after
sunset over inland TAF sites with SCT clouds developing along with
diminishing winds at all locations. These lighter winds and some
partial clearing may allow for lower MVFR or even some IFR CIGS to
re-develop late tonight at GNV/VQQ and have trended in that
direction but confidence remains low in this scenario. Mostly dry
conds expected for Wednesday morning, later in the TAF period as
NE winds start to increase after 15Z, with mostly MVFR CIGS
expected, but could be VFR in some locations as lower levels of
the atmosphere dry out temporarily.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions with breezy north-northeasterly
winds and high seas will persist across the coastal waters through
the week and into the upcoming weekend, along with occasional wind
gusts to gale force at times. The local area will be between
Tropical Storm Imelda lifting away from the Florida east coast and
strong high pressure building down the eastern US. Winds slowly
shift to easterly Friday into the weekend as the strong high
pressure shifts further down the eastern seaboard.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1216 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025

A few spots may push close to Minor Flood levels along the St.
Johns River Basin and NE FL Atlantic beachfront to the south of
Jacksonville today and Wednesday, but likely not widespread enough
to warrant Coastal Flood Advisories at this time. A more
significant push of NE winds and the approach of the full moon
later this week will likely bring more widespread Minor coastal
and tidal flooding on Thursday/Friday and expect Coastal Flood
Advisories to be posted sometime on Wednesday. The latest PETSS
guidance is suggesting potential for Moderate (Coastal Flood Watch
and/or Warning) water levels Friday Night into the upcoming
weekend, with the best chances for the St. Johns River Basin as
potential heavy rainfall could fall into the basin and bring
higher confidence in Moderate Coastal Flooding with water levels
reaching 2 ft above MHHW in the St. Johns River Basin, and into
the 2 to 2.5 ft above MHHW along the Atlantic beach front
locations.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  63  85  62  80 /  20   0   0   0
SSI  67  81  71  79 /  20   0  10  30
JAX  67  84  70  82 /  20  10  10  40
SGJ  71  83  72  83 /  30  10  30  50
GNV  67  87  69  85 /  20  10  10  20
OCF  68  87  70  85 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for GAZ154-166.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$