300
FXUS62 KJAX 130557
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION,
MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Drought conditions will expand across our region as an extended
  dry spell continues through next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Overnight surface analysis depicts weakening high pressure (1025
millibars) positioned over the northeast Gulf. Meanwhile, another
high pressure center (1022 millibars) was building southeastward
from the Upper Midwest, pushing a weak and dry frontal boundary
southward from the Ohio Valley towards the southern Appalachians
and the Tennessee Valley. Aloft...troughing remains situated from
the Upper Midwest through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states,
while flat ridging was gradually building northward from the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. This weather pattern was creating a
deep and dry northwesterly flow across the southeastern states. A
very dry air mass persists across our area, with latest GOES-East
derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicating PWATs ranging
from around 0.75 inches for locations near the Altamaha/Ocmulgee
Rivers in southeast GA to around 0.4 inches across north central
FL. Fair skies prevail throughout our area, with a light west-
southwesterly breeze persisting at coastal locations, while winds
inland were slowly decoupling. Temperatures were falling through
the 40s at most inland locations, ranging to the lower 50s at
coastal locations. Dewpoints at 05Z were slowly rising through the
upper 30s and lower 40s at most locations.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

High pressure will continue to weaken and shift southward along
the FL Gulf coast today in response to another high pressure
center building southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the
Tennessee Valley. This feature will push a moisture-starved,
weakening "backdoor" frontal boundary southward across the
Carolinas this afternoon, with this boundary crossing our area
this evening and overnight tonight. Dry northwesterly flow aloft
will prevent PWATs from rising significantly ahead of this
approaching boundary, and the frontal passage will only be
accompanied by a few mid and high altitude clouds tonight, mainly
for locations along and north of Interstate 10.

Following a seasonably chilly start to the day, full sunshine and
a dry air mass will allow highs to climb to the low to mid 70s
nearly area-wide this afternoon. Our local pressure gradient will
loosen enough this afternoon to allow for the Atlantic sea breeze
to develop and slowly push inland, with coastal temperatures
slowly falling into the upper 60s by the mid to late afternoon
hours now that near shore water temperatures have cooled to the
60s following our cold snap this week.

A light northwesterly breeze will develop after midnight at
coastal locations following the passage of the frontal boundary
during the evening hours tonight. Mid and high altitude cloud
cover will otherwise thin out towards sunrise as surface ridging
builds over the southern Appalachians. The dry air mass over our
region will be reinforced overnight, and decoupling winds during
the evening hours will allow lows to again cool to the low and mid
40s at inland locations, with the northwesterly breeze developing
late keeping coastal lows in the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

A weak front will pass through the area Friday morning, with high
pressure settling overhead afterwards. Clear skies, pretty calm
winds, and warm temperatures are expected both Friday and
Saturday. High temperatures will be in the mid 70s inland Friday
with an onshore breeze keeping the coast a little cooler, and a
few degrees warmer on Saturday. Low temperatures will dip into the
40s Friday night for inland areas west of the St. Johns river
basin, and a little bit warmer Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Two more weak cold fronts will approach Sunday evening and again
on Tuesday, however dry conditions will persist with high
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s each day with mostly
sunny skies. Low temperatures will be above normal, in the 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Westerly
surface winds sustained around 5 knots overnight and early
Thursday morning will shift to northwesterly by 14Z, with speeds
increasing to 5-10 knots. The Atlantic sea breeze will develop
during the early to mid afternoon hours on Thursday and will push
slowly inland through late afternoon, allowing surface winds to
become onshore at the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals by 19Z. Winds
will then quickly diminish at the regional terminals towards 00Z
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

High pressure positioned over the FL peninsula will continue to
slowly weaken and slide southward on Thursday as a dry and weak
frontal boundary pushes southward towards the GA waters. Breezy
westerly winds offshore with shift to northwesterly overnight,
with speeds gradually weakening ahead of the frontal passage on
Thursday afternoon. Another high pressure center will build over
the southeastern states on Friday in the wake of the frontal
passage, resulting in a brief period of northeasterly winds. High
pressure will then weaken as it settles directly over our local
waters on Friday night and Saturday. This feature will then shift
southward on Saturday night and Sunday, resulting in strengthening
southwesterly winds ahead of the next dry frontal passage that is
expected on Sunday night or early Monday morning. Seas of 2 to 4
feet will prevail both near shore and offshore during the next
several days.

.Rip Currents...Prevailing northwesterly winds this morning and
low surf heights will result in a low risk at area beaches today.
Breezy onshore winds developing on Friday afternoon will create a
lower end moderate risk at the northeast FL beaches, with low
surf heights keeping the risk low for the southeast GA beaches.
Prevailing offshore winds and low surf heights will yield a low
risk at area beaches this weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1257 AM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Relative humidity values will remain in the 30-40% range over
inland southeast GA today, with improvement over northeast FL. A
dry cold front will move through Friday morning, leaving low minRH
values in it`s wake through Saturday in the 25-35% range.
Dispersion will be fairly good the next couple of days, with some
higher values Saturday over southeast GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  73  42  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  50  69  51 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  75  46  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  72  51  74  53 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  75  46  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  74  46  76  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$