297
FXUS62 KJAX 191153
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
753 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Quick update to add a High Surf Advisory for the NE FL beaches as
latest buoys reports at 41070 and 41117 off the NE FL coastline
have now reached 9 feet, so this supports surf/breakers of 5-7 ft
that will likely last through Thursday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Strong onshore/Easterly flow will continue through tonight with
mainly scattered light to moderate showers moving onshore at
times, although occasional slugs of deeper moisture will bring
brief periods of heavy rainfall and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm, but overall storm chances remain low through tonight
over inland areas and will likely mainly be seen tonight over the
Atlantic Coastal waters and possibly coming onshore at times.
Sustained Easterly winds will remain in the 15-25mph with gusts
into the 30-40 mph range along the Atlantic Coast, just below Wind
Advisory headlines, and will push inland at these levels during
the daytime hours and mix down with any shower activity that
develops. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal with
highs in the middle 80s at the Atlantic beaches, upper 80s along
the I-95 corridor and around 90F over far inland areas. Winds
diminish over inland areas tonight with the Easterly flow will
remain breezy along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered
showers pushing onshore into the Atlantic Coastal areas at least
as far inland to the US 17 corridor and the St. Johns River Basin
through the night. Lows temps will fall into the lower 70s across
inland areas, with the onshore flow keeping the Atlantic Coastal
areas warm and muggy in the middle to upper 70s, otherwise low
temps in the next 24 hours may actually occur during rain cooled
shower activity for most location along the Atlantic Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure will be centered to the northeast through this
period, continuing the prolonged period of onshore flow. Waves of
low pressure will move through this flow, producing enhanced
chances for precipitation. The strongest of these waves will move
across the area Thursday afternoon through Thursday night.

During the day times on Thursday and Friday, there will be a
chance for a few storms with diurnal heating. During the nights,
convective potential will be minimal.

Highs will be below normal due to the onshore flow, while this
same flow will keep readings above normal at night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The high will build more toward the east northeast Saturday into
Saturday night. This will result in a more southeast to south
flow. This change in flow will result in warmer temperatures, and
greater convective chances, especially Saturday afternoon and
evening. The high will move more to the east on Sunday, yielding a
mostly southerly flow. This will help produce an even warmer day
on Sunday, with above normal convective chances occurring.

A weak frontal boundary will move south southeast across the area
Monday into Tuesday. The resultant flow will be from the
southwest. This will keep temperatures above normal, with these
warmer readings pushing all the way to the coast. Convective
chances will continue to run above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 752 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Abundant low level moisture continues today with low level RH values
that are at least 75 percent with the breezy easterly flow. Current
observations show scattered to broken stratocumulus/cumulus over
the region with some low chances of MVFR cigs this morning, mainly
around SGJ. Still quite a bit moisture for brief periods of the
MVFR cigs even during the aftn. As mentioned before, enhanced chances
of showers expected tonight and have brought in some prevailing MVFR
by midnight for JAX, CRG, VQQ, and SGJ, with the shower activity probably
more persistent around SGJ. Held off on TEMPOs for showing SHRAs for
now. Winds will be increasing to about 15-20G25-30kt by late morning
and aftn, and will generally weaken tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Small Craft Advisories will continue through Thursday with East
winds in the 20-25 knot range with frequent gusts to 30 knots at
times. Models still on track with inverted surface trough under
area of low pressure aloft pushing into the FL East Coast Atlantic
waters Thursday Night and/or Early Friday which will likely
continue strong onshore flow at Small Craft Advisory levels with
low chances of potential Gale Force winds if an organized low
pressure center can develop. Winds will then shift to the
Southeast following the wave by this weekend with a decrease in
wind speeds to 10-15 knots and slowly subsiding seas below
headline levels.

Rip Currents: The strong onshore flow will continue a high risk of
rip currents this week with surf/breakers of 4-6 ft Today and
Thursday, but will need to keep an eye on local surf/beach reports
today for potential high surf advisory for surf/breakers of 7 ft
or higher. With the approach of the full moon later this week,
water levels will start to run above normal but coastal flooding
is not expected at this time in the onshore flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  89  69  90  69 /  20  20  20  20
SSI  85  75  87  77 /  40  40  50  60
JAX  87  74  87  73 /  40  40  70  50
SGJ  87  76  86  76 /  30  60  70  60
GNV  91  72  89  71 /  30  30  60  30
OCF  90  73  91  73 /  40  30  60  30

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125-
     133-138.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ124-125-133-138.

GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for AMZ450-452-454-
     470-472-474.

&&

$$