886
FXUS62 KJAX 180525
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1225 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Patchy inland fog this morning. Localized dense fog along
  highway 301 corridor from Gainesville area to Hilliard, west of
  Jacksonville.

- More Widespread Dense Fog Event possible Wednesday morning,
  mainly across NE FL.

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with
  outdoor flames check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme
  Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

- A Low-End Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)...

Calm conditions exist behind yesterday morning`s frontal passage.
Not a significantly dry airmass and there is enough near-ground
moisture in place to allow patchy to areas of fog to develop, mainly
across NE FL this morning. Some patches may become dense at times,
especially around sunrise. Fog that forms should lift quickly this
morning.

Surface ridging moving off the Mid Atlantic coast today will direct
flow onshore today. Within that onshore flow, a weak inverted trough
will develop and potentially provide enough convergence to trigger a
few showers, which should stay offshore and over the waters for the
most part with only stratocumulus being pushed inland.

Tonight, a bit of moistening under the influence of another area of
high pressure consolidating over the northern Gulf coast. The
combination of the moistening and calm conditions will lead to
another potential fog event Wednesday morning with a broadened
concern area for dense fog development. Dirty ridging moving in from
the west will stream cirrus in overhead which may limit fog extent.

Comfortable temperatures today after a cool start in mid 40s to low
50s this morning, inland temperatures will rise to the low 80s (only
a few degrees off from daily records - see CLIMATE section for
details). At the coast the onshore flow will lead to cooler
conditions with highs in the mid/upper 70s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday night)

Dry weather conditions will continue after midweek as high
pressure over the forecast area shifts further towards the east
and allowing for more humid air to settle in over the region.
Potential for overnight and early morning fog developments through
Thursday. Daily high temperatures may potentially challenge record
high levels for the period as max temps rise in the lower to mid
80s. Overnight low temperatures will range between the lower to
mid 50s for inland areas and in the lower 60s along the coastline.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)

Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to build across
inland southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida along and
north of the I-10 corridor on Saturday as high pressure ridging
over the region moves off to the southeast into the Atlantic and
instability ahead of an advancing cold front. Dry weather
conditions will return by the end of the weekend and into next
week as dry air following the frontal passage settles in over the
forecast area. Temperatures will experience a slight cooling trend
going into the weekend and into next week, however temps are
expected to remain above the seasonal average throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Less confident in dense fog development at TAF sites this morning
but cannot be entirely ruled out at KGNV and KVQQ. Otherwise, mist
may develop at other area terminals. Winds will favor a northeast
then easterly direction today around 4-9 knots. The onshore flow
will spread scattered VFR stratocumulus clouds and moisture
inland today, setting the stage for a more extensive fog event
during the early morning hours Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...

There will be a weak and brief coastal trough over the waters
which may lead to isolated showers off the northeast Florida coast
through the afternoon and evening before lifting away to the
northeast. Otherwise, high pressure will be the dominant weather
feature through the end of the week resulting in light winds and
low seas across the local waters. Over the weekend winds turn
offshore and become breezy as a cold front approaches and passes
Sunday night. High pressure building in behind the front will move
offshore to the northeast early next week setting up onshore flow
and development of a coastal trough.


RIP CURRENTS: A low-end Moderate risk is expected today due to
onshore flow. A Low Risk is anticipated Wednesday through the
weekend.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Drier air over the forecast area will result in MinRH values in
the lower 30s over inland southeast Georgia today, however low
wind speeds today will keep conditions from reaching elevated fire
danger levels. The mild and variable winds through today will
result in lower mixing heights and poor daytime dispersion values.
MinRH values will gradually rise as the week progresses, however,
poor/fair dispersions and dry weather will persist through Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                          WED 11/19  THU 11/20  FRI 11/21  SAT 11/22

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)     84/1958    86/1988    84/1991    84/1973
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)     82/1984    86/1988    82/2004    81/1997
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)     90/1906    88/1906    86/1973    86/1906
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)     82/1942    83/1942    83/2011    83/2011

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  77  50  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  73  57  77  58 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  79  55  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  78  58  80  58 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  82  54  84  54 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  81  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$