841
FXUS62 KJAX 141715
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
1215 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Increasing Fog potential into the Weekend

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to
  Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern
  Suwannee Valley, Likely to Expand in Coverage Next Week

- Moderate Rip Current Risk Northeast FL Beaches Today

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure builds into the region from the NW this afternoon,
then settles overhead NE FL/SE GA tonight. Mostly clear skies are
expected with mild afternoon temps this afternoon in the 70s,
followed by cool overnight lows in the 40s inland, and lower 50s
along the Atlantic Coast. Only weather impacts are expected to be
locally dense fog potential over inland areas late tonight and
early Saturday morning as winds become near calm and temps cool
below afternoon mixed dew point temp values. Moderate confidence
in locally dense fog potential, but low confidence if it becomes
organized enough to require any dense fog advisories around
sunrise Saturday. Latest fog guidance is suggesting along the
US17/301 corridors of SE GA and between the I-95 and I-75
corridors across most of inland NE FL, still mostly suggesting
locally dense fog, which would likely remain below dense fog
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure will continue to trek across the area on Saturday,
eventually exiting south of the area during the overnight hours
into Sunday as another frontal boundary pushes in from the north.
The dry weather will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s for most locations on
Saturday and Sunday as mostly clear skies are expected each day.
Cooler temps on Saturday along the coast thanks to the onshore
northeast flow bringing in cooler marine air. Winds shift to
become southwesterly on Sunday as the next frontal boundary nears
the area. During the evening hours, Lows will be mostly in the
lower to mid 50s across inland locations and mid to upper 50s
along the coast.

Light winds, clear skies, and lingering low-level moisture from
the Gulf will bring the potential for patchy to areas of fog
during early hours on Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warmer temperatures are expected to develop over the upcoming
week after the passage of a frontal boundary at the start of the
week. Behind the fropa, high pressure will station itself over the
area which will continue the dry spell. This will lead for the
drought conditions across the area to continue and likely expand
in areal coverage during the upcoming week.

The gradual warming trend will see daytime highs rise into the
lower 80s for most inland locations, with upper 70s along the
coast for most days of the upcoming week. Fog development is
likely to occur each night/morning through midweek as dewpoints
will also begin to trend upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR with SKC through the evening hours along with light NE winds
less than 10 knots. Cooling boundary layer tonight and calm winds
will lead to increased fog potential with IFR VSBYS now introduced
into all TAF sites, but confidence only high enough for LIFR conds
at VQQ for now, but may have to be expanded to GNV/JAX/CRG in the
09-13Z time frame (4am-8am) in later TAF packages. Fog should lift
and dissipate by the 14-15Z time frame on Saturday Morning with
VFR and SKC conds through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure will build into the region through Saturday. On
Sunday the high pressure will shift southward which will allow for
breezy southerly-southwesterly winds to develop over the local
waters ahead of the next dry frontal passage that is expected on
Sunday night or early Monday morning. High pressure will re-build
into the region for most of next week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of Rips into the weekend with surf/breakers
generally 1-2 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Dry weather conditions this weekend as high pressure remains
overhead for much of the weekend ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary on Sunday. Min RH values expected in the upper 20% to lower
30% range across southeast Georgia Saturday afternoon. RH values
improve briefly on Sunday as winds shift to become southwesterly
ahead of a weak cold front. Lower RH values make a return on Monday
over southeast Georgia behind the cold front. Dry conditions
continue during the upcoming week as showers are not expected,
leading for the severe to extreme drought conditions to persist and
likely to expand in areal coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  78  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  78  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  77  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  45  79  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  46  78  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$