828
FXUS62 KJAX 052340
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
640 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Isolated Strong TStorms Possible Along I-10 Late Friday Afternoon.
Hazards: Strong Wind Gusts of 40-50 mph, Frequent Lightning & Small
Hail

- Beneficial Rainfall Across Southeast GA through Sat Night

- Periods of Heavy Rainfall Shifts Across North Central and Northeast
FL

- Sunday and Sunday Evening. Isolated TStorms Possible South of I-10.
Severe Weather Not Anticipated.

- Severe to Extreme Drought Continues for Inland Areas

- Light Freezes & Frost Possible Inland on Mon & Tues Nights

&&

.UPDATE...
Pre-frontal line of showers and isolated storms with gusty winds and
heavy rainfall continues to track into the I-10 corridor of North FL
early this evening and is on track to slowly weaken as it tracks
through the rest of NE FL through midnight. Rainfall will re-develop
across inland SE GA after midnight ahead of the next batch of
rainfall, while NE FL will remain cloudy and cool with low clouds
and areas of fog area-wide. Low temps will only fall into the upper
40s across inland SE GA, 50s for the I-10 of north florida and lower
60s for the rest of NE FL from GNV-SGJ and southward. Locally dense
fog can be expected towards morning in some locations, mainly near
the stalled frontal boundary across NE FL, to the south of the I-10
corridor.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early afternoon surface analysis depicts a wavy frontal boundary
stretching from the Okefenokee Swamp in southeast GA southwestward
across the FL Big Bend. A weak wave of low pressure (1012
millibars) was traversing this front near the FL/GA border.
Meanwhile, weakening high pressure (1028 millibars) was centered
over New England. Aloft...deep west-southwesterly
flow prevails across the southeastern states, as our area lies
between stout ridging over the southeastern Bahamas and
broad troughing that extends from the Upper Midwest eastward
across the eastern Great Lakes. Scattered convection was developing
ahead of the frontal wave across the FL Big Bend and southern GA,
with the "warm sector" nosing northward through the Okefenokee
Swamp. Isentropic lift / overrunning continues in the "cool sector"
from Waycross northward, where temperatures and dewpoints remain
stuck in the 50s this afternoon. Temperatures across northeast and
north central FL have soared into the 70s to around 80 as of 19Z,
with dewpoints climbing to the mid and upper 60s.

The aforementioned wave of low pressure along the frontal boundary
will push east-northeastward across the FL/GA border and Okefenokee
Swamp this afternoon and will move offshore this evening, resulting
in the frontal boundary slowing its forward progress as it moves
south of Interstate 10 overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will
increase in coverage and possibly intensity this afternoon in the
"warm sector", with a few surface-based thunderstorms developing
from locations south of Waycross southward across the Interstate
10 corridor, where CAPE values will rise to the 500-1,000 j/kg
range. Bulk shear values around 50 knots could create a few strong
storms  through early this evening, mainly for locations along and
north of I-10, before instability weakens before midnight. Stronger
storms this afternoon and evening may create localized downburst
wind gusts of 40-50 mph, small hail, frequent lightning, and briefly
heavy downpours.

Weakening convection pushing southeastward across north central and
coastal northeast FL will provide some brief but beneficial
downpours through around midnight tonight. Isentropic ascent /
overrunning will remain in place in the wake of the frontal wave
overnight across southeast GA, where light rainfall and drizzle will
likely develop as a deck of low stratus cloud cover expands across
our region from north to south. Locally dense fog may also develop
in the immediate wake of the frontal passage by the predawn and
early morning hours, especially across north central FL, where lows
will only fall to the lower 60s. Weak cool air advection will
otherwise allow lows to fall to the upper 40s and lower 50s for
southeast GA and northeast FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will continue to take its time dropping southward
throughout this weekend, with the key takeaway being mostly cloudy
skies with periods of rain and generally light winds for the
majority of the area through at least Sunday Evening. More detail
for each period:

Saturday: Majority of rainfall during the day Saturday is expected
to be over interior GA, mainly north and west of Waycross. However,
just a bit of diurnal instability and slightly more breaks in the
clouds may spawn a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorms over
northeast FL, especially south of about SR-20. Cooler high temps
will be expected area wide as the front nudges south. Expecting
mainly 50s over interior GA, 60s surrounding the I-10 corridor, and
low to mid 70s south of about SR-20.

Saturday Night & Sunday: Higher rainfall chances shift further south
Saturday Night and through Sunday as the front continues to slowly
nudge southward, with the highest PoPs and QPF expected to be across
northeast FL but especially near the I-10 corridor. Otherwise mainly
cloudy skies with lows a touch cooler Saturday Night: Mainly in the
40s across southeast GA and 50s over northeast FL. High temps Sunday
will be similar to Saturday overall across northeast FL with mid 60s
to low 70s common. Less of a gradient heading northward into GA on
Sunday however thanks to lower rainfall coverage: in the upper 50s
to mid 60s will be expected.

Sunday Night: Drier air both near the surface and aloft starts to
slowly intrude into the region Sunday Night as a secondary front
approaches from the northwest, likely entering southeast GA counties
by early Monday Morning. Still enough moisture for rain chances to
continue Sunday Night, especially from about I-10 southward in
northeast FL though mainly dry elsewhere. Low temps will be similar
to Saturday Night, with upper 40s to near 50 over interior GA and
50s over northeast FL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drying trend expected overall through Monday as the aforementioned
secondary front drops southward, settling over south FL by Tuesday.
A few isolated showers will be possible Monday afternoon over
interior GA as the base of an upper shortwave passes just north of
this area, but otherwise dry for most Monday and especially Tuesday.
Surface high pressure shift southward into the area through mid
week, though A coastal trough will try to form by Tue and into early
Wednesday, keeping the coastal northeast FL breezy at times though
rain chances appear minimal at this time. The high makes further
progress southward Wednesday night and through Thursday, as a weak
dry front moves through the forecast area. Temps will trend mostly
below normal early in the week before slowly rebounding closer to
normal Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
LIFR conds have already set up at the SSI terminal behind the
frontal boundary and will continue through the entire TAF period
with rainfall starting up again after 12Z Saturday. Band of showers
and isolated storms (VCTS) still on track to push through the NE FL
terminals through 03Z with MVFR CIGS and gusty winds, then IFR CIGS
developing through 06Z, before LIFR CIGS and IFR VSBYS settle in at
all NE FL TAF sites and remain in place through most of the rest of
the TAF period, with some lifting of CIGS to IFR at GNV/SGJ after
18Z, but still high confidence in low LIFR and IFR CIGS to dominate
the terminals through most of the upcoming TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...


Weak low pressure moving across our region late this afternoon will
bring an increasing chance for showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm through this evening before this feature moves offshore
tonight. A cold front will then cross the northeast Florida waters
overnight before stalling over north central Florida on Saturday and
Saturday night. A wave of low pressure will then develop along this
front just south of the northeast Florida waters on Saturday night,
with widespread rainfall and a few embedded thunderstorms
overspreading our local waters through Sunday evening. Low pressure
will move offshore on Sunday night, resulting in strengthening
northwesterly winds. High pressure will then build over the
southeastern states early next week, creating strengthening
northerly winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions from Monday
afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Saturday
              NE FL Low Saturday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
     WIDESPREAD LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...



Mostly cloudy and wet conditions will continue today and into the
weekend as well as a cold front slowly sinks southward, moving
through the area by Sunday night. The showers will be heaviest today
over Southeast GA into the Suwannee Valley with the axis of heavier
showers moving into Northeast FL for late Saturday into much of
Sunday before ending by Sunday Night. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible with the heavier showers as well, but no severe storms are
expected. Cloud cover, rain coverage, and light winds will result in
low mixing heights and low daytime dispersions through the weekend.
Drier and seasonably cool conditions will be expected for the start
of next week as weak high pressure builds over the region.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: Significant fog is not expected
over the next few days, but there`s some potential for rain mixed
with fog for early Saturday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  48  55  45  60 /  90 100  50  40
SSI  53  59  50  63 /  80  90  70  50
JAX  55  63  51  67 /  60  80  70  60
SGJ  60  67  55  69 /  40  40  70  70
GNV  60  70  55  70 /  40  40  70  70
OCF  63  74  57  73 /  30  40  70  80

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$