589
FXUS62 KJAX 031903
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding Possible along the Atlantic Coast &
  Portions of the St. Johns River Basin Beginning Midweek

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at the Northeast FL Beaches. High Risk
  Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisory for the Northeast FL Waters through Late
  Tonight

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Afternoon surface analysis depicts strengthening high pressure
(1030 millibars) stretching across the lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys. Meanwhile, a cold front that pushed across our
area overnight was slowing its forward progress across south FL
and the FL Keys. Aloft...a potent shortwave trough was pivoting
eastward across North Carolina`s Outer Banks, with ridging
building eastward along the northern Gulf coast from Deep South
Texas. Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery
indicates that a much drier air mass has advected into our area in
the wake of the overnight frontal passage, with PWATs falling
below one half inch throughout our region. Fair skies were in
place region-wide this afternoon, with a seasonably dry air mass
and sunshine countering cool air advection, resulting in
temperatures climbing to the upper 60s and lower 70s at most
locations as of 19Z. Dewpoints were falling through the 40s
inland, ranging to the low and mid 50s along the northeast FL
coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure will shift northward from the lower Mississippi
Valley towards the southern Appalachians tonight, keeping a
tighter local pressure gradient in place along the Atlantic
coast. Winds will mostly decouple at inland locations this evening,
allowing lows to fall to the low and mid 40s, except upper 40s
for portions of north central FL and coastal southeast GA. A
northerly breeze will lows mostly in the lower 50s along the
northeast FL coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday and Wednesday)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure to the north will shift to the northeast by
Wednesday allowing for an onshore breeze to keep coastal
temperatures a few degrees cooler than inland locations. Highs
Tuesday will be in the 70s inland and upper 60s near the southeast
Georgia coast, with a warm up on Wednesday with some inland
northeast Florida areas seeing 80 degrees. Low temperatures both
nights will generally be in the 40s for inland southeast Georgia
and 50s to low 60s elsewhere. No precipitation in the forecast
this week, with sunny skies forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue during this period,
temperatures will reach into the the upper 70s to lower 80s across
most locations, while onshore flow will keep coastal locations in
the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and Friday.

A beautiful weekend is forecast, with mostly sunny skies and and a
light breeze. Saturday will be the warmest day of the week with
most areas seeing highs in the lower to mid 80s, except the
immediate coast north of Jacksonville which will stay in the upper
70s. Looking ahead to Monday, it will be much chillier following
the frontal passage on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1250 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals. Brief
periods of MVFR conditions will be possible after 06Z Tuesday at
VQQ, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF at this
time. Northeasterly winds will remain sustained at 10-15 knots
through around 22Z at SGJ and CRG. Northerly or northeasterly
winds will remain sustained around 10 knots at the rest of the
terminals through around 22Z. Surface winds will shift to
northwesterly at the SSI and SGJ terminals by 04Z, with sustained
speeds remaining sustained around 5 knots overnight. Winds
elsewhere will diminish below 5 knots after 02Z. Northeasterly
surface winds will develop by 14Z Tuesday at the regional
terminals, with speeds increasing to 10-15 knots at SSI and SGJ
and 5-10 knots elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure building into the southeastern states this
evening will shift northward over the southern Appalachians
tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions over the northeast
FL waters, featuring sustained winds around 20 knots, will
continue through later tonight before winds shift to northeasterly
while gradually weakening during the predawn and early morning
hours on Tuesday. Caution level northeasterly winds of 15 to 20
knots will continue on Tuesday for all but the near shore waters
adjacent to southeast GA. Seas of 3 to 5 feet will prevail for
most of our local waters through Tuesday evening, while seas of
2-4 feet prevail for the near shore waters adjacent to southeast
GA. High pressure will then shift eastward towards the Carolina
coast by Tuesday evening, allowing onshore winds and elevated seas
to diminish on Tuesday night. Weakening high pressure is then
expected to settle over our local waters late this week ahead of
an approaching cold front. This front is slated to cross our local
waters on Sunday, possibly accompanied by widely scattered
showers.

Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds will likely create a high rip
current risk at the northeast FL beaches on Tuesday, with a higher
end moderate risk forecast for the southeast GA beaches.
Diminishing onshore winds will result in a moderate risk at all
area beaches on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 914 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Breezy north-northwesterly transport winds will shift to northerly
this afternoon. These winds will usher in a seasonably dry air
mass, with relative humidity values falling to the 30-35 percent
range at most inland locations this afternoon. Breezy transport
winds will create good daytime dispersion values at most locations
this afternoon. Surface and transport winds will shift to
northeasterly early on Tuesday morning, with breezy speeds
continuing across northeast and north central FL, where good
daytime dispersion values are again expected. Diminishing speeds
inland southeast GA will yield generally fair daytime dispersion
values. A seasonably dry air mass will persist across southeast GA
and the Suwannee Valley, where minimum relative humidity values
will again fall to the 30-35 percent range on Tuesday afternoon.
Transport winds will shift to southwesterly across southeast GA on
Wednesday, with easterly transport winds forecast for most of
northeast and north central FL. Continued light speeds will yield
fair daytime dispersion values at most locations, with pockets of
poor values for the Suwannee Valley and portions of southeast GA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 203 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Wednesday`s "Supermoon" will result in gradually increasing tide
levels by midweek, mainly along the Atlantic coast. Guidance
shows the combination of onshore winds and rising astronomical
tides pushing water levels to action stage along the Atlantic
coast and possibly for locations east of downtown Jacksonville
along the St Johns River during Tuesday morning`s high tide.
Tidal levels may then approach minor flood thresholds during
Wednesday and possibly Thursday morning`s high tides. A coastal
flood advisory may be required for these locations towards
midweek. Current guidance suggests from downtown JAX southward
may escape minor flooding levels, but we will continue to monitor
water levels and guidance forecasts. Total water levels may peak
around the 1.5 to 2 foot range above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW)
during times of high tide along the Atlantic coast and for
portions of the St. Johns River east of downtown Jacksonville
around times of high tide on Wednesday and Thursday mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  42  74  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  48  68  55  74 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  46  73  50  80 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  53  73  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  46  77  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  48  77  53  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-454-472-
     474.

&&

$$