285
FXUS62 KJAX 231415
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
915 AM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Areas of Inland Fog Late Tonight.

- Near Record Highs Inland through Wednesday

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Wednesday. Be very cautious
with outdoor fires  check for local burn bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Expanding Across Inland Areas

&&

.UPDATE...
A weak cool front was moving through the deep southeast and we still
have some low stratus and some fog but dissipating at this time.
The front will slowly move into northeast FL with some potential
for a few showers late today into this evening mainly over the
inland northeast FL zones south of about Gainesville, so have
kept that in the forecast. Little change to the max temps but
made some changes to the dewpoints based on the trends of higher
values over northeast FL. For tonight, some slight changes for the
fog forecast, and still looking at good potential for low stratus
and fog once again after midnight. We may need at least a special
weather statement, and perhaps a low to medium chance of a
dense fog advisory.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning...Weakening frontal boundary still on track
drifting into SE GA, although most of the isolated shower activity
along this feature has faded. Next impact will be low stratus and
fog development ahead of the low level boundary across inland NE FL
as moisture pooling develops and expect at least areas of dense fog
development along and south of the I-10 corridor through sunrise as
low temps only fall into the 60s for most locations. Too early for
any dense fog advisory placements, but will be possible along the I-
75 corridor in the GNV/OCF vicinity around sunrise.

Today...Weakening frontal boundary sags southward through NE FL and
ends up stalled across Central FL by late this afternoon. Drier air
mass will slowly filter in across SE GA, while an isolated shower
not out of the question across inland NE FL during the afternoon
hours, but overall rainfall chances remain at 10 percent or less.
Not much cooler air behind this boundary and above normal temps will
continue as Northwest winds at 5-10 mph in the morning, become NE by
the late afternoon hours. Max temps around 80F across SE GA and
lower 80s for NE FL, except for mid/upper 70s along the Atlantic
Coast in the developing onshore flow.

Tonight...High pressure builds in north of the region while old
frontal boundary remains stalled across Central FL. Light NE flow
under mostly clear skies will promote fog formation over inland
areas, with at least areas of dense fog formation expected by late
night and through sunrise Monday Morning, with dense fog advisories
possible once again. Low temps in the lower 50s across inland SE GA
and mid/upper 50s across inland NE FL and lower 60s along the
Atlantic Coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday, a mid to upper level short wave trough will move east of New
England through Nova Scotia with ridging aloft over the eastern
third of the country. The departing trough will remove the upper
level support for a cold front to the south and cause it to stall
over the FL peninsula as high pressure over the central Appalachians
slowly moves east to the Mid Atlantic coast. As the high to the
north moves east, northeasterly winds 10-15 mph at the coast will
turn easterly, lessening with inland extent to 5-10 mph. Skies will
be mostly sunny under high level cirrus clouds. Highs will be above
normal in the upper 70s over inland SE GA, lower 80s over inland NE
FL and the low to mid 70s along the coast.

Monday night, the high will move into the western Atlantic waters as
low level ridging moves between NE FL and Bermuda. High level clouds
from the west will drift over the area with increasing Atlantic
stratocumulus moving in from the southeast as light east to
southeasterly flow veers southerly with height. Lows will be above
normal in the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s along
the coast and the St Johns river. Patchy fog will develop away from
the coast over NE FL.

Tuesday, high pressure will exit away to the northeast with low
level ridging extending westward over the area from the ENE. Flow
will become southeasterly near the coast and southerly inland as a
developing storm system approaches from the northwest. Warmer
conditions under a mix of low level clouds from the Atlantic and
high level cirrus will allow highs in the low 80s over SE GA and the
low to mid 80s over NE FL with upper 70s along the immediate coast.

Tuesday night, A potent shortwave trough will drive ESE across the
upper Midwest and deepen troughing east of the Rockies. A strong
cold front will move quickly eastward through the deep south states
into Wednesday morning. Moist south to southwest flow off the Gulf
waters will allow for patchy fog to develop over NE FL areas. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 50s inland and the low to mid 60s over
the coast/St Johns river. Showers will remain west of the area
though sunrise.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Wednesday, a deep trough will shift east through the eastern half of
the country with an embedded negatively tilted shortwave trough
swinging through the Great Lakes. This feature will drive a cold
front through the area on Wednesday, but strongest mid to upper
level support and broad scale lift will shift north of the region
and limit the risk of rainfall and T`storms to generally isolated
coverage from the Suwannee Valley into SE GA while much less chances
towards the NE FL coast. One more warm day expected as good mixing
will boost highs to near record levels (see climate section) in the
mid 80s over NE FL and upper 70s/low 80s over SE GA with near 80
readings along the coast.

Thursday, strong high pressure centered near the upper plains will
build a colder and drier airmass through the southeast states into
NE FL. Brisk NW winds 10-15 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph. Skies will
be mostly sunny with high level clouds over NE FL as fast jet stream
winds streak across the FL peninsula. Highs will be in the mid 60s
over SE GA and the upper 60s to low 70s over NE FL.

Friday, the strong high will build to the north over the central
appalachians and north winds will turn northeasterly. While dry
conditions and sunny skies prevail, cold air advection will limit
highs to the low 60s over SE GA and the mid to upper 60s over NE FL.
Lows Friday morning will be chilly in the mid 30s over inland SE
GA/upper 30s west of Trail Ridge.

Saturday, the high will move onto the Mid Atlantic coast with
increasing gradient winds from the east as another deep trough
develops over the central US, spurring a developing storm system
over the lower MS valley. Highs will warm into the upper 60s over SE
GA with low 70s over NE FL. Another chilly start with lows in the
mid 30s will greet inland SE GA, but winds may be too high to allow
frost formation.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
LIFR to IFR continues for most sites with SGJ currently VFR but that
could change quickly. The stratus and fog will dissipate over the
course of the next 2-3 hours and then drier air will filter in as a
weak cool front slowly moves through the northeast FL area.
Winds are generally westerly, and will transition to northwest 5-10
kt, with some onshore/northeast flow possible for SGJ, CRG, and SSI
after 20Z.

Another round of low clouds and fog looks likely late tonight and
for now showing MVFR vsby near or after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
.SYNOPSIS...

A weak and mostly dry frontal boundary will push south across the
local waters today. High pressure builds north of the region tonight
into Monday, with breezy onshore winds. The high builds east of the
Atlantic coast Tuesday as a stronger cold front approaches from the
west. The front will press south of the local waters late Wednesday
into Thursday, trailed by offshore flow and winds near Small Craft
Exercise Caution levels.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate Monday
              NE FL Moderate Monday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...

     PATCHY HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 THIS
AFTERNOON...

     AREAS OF HIGH DAYTIME DISPERSIONS ON WEDNESDAY...

     CRITICALLY LOW MIN RH VALUES RESUME OVER INLAND AREAS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

Cold front will press through the area early this morning and into
Northeast Florida this afternoon with northwest winds 5-10 mph as
high pressure builds in from the northwest today. Fair daytime
dispersions expected south of I-10 with good to patchy high end
dispersions along and north of I-10 due to elevated mixing heights
behind the front. High pressure will be north of the area Monday and
shift off the Mid Atlantic coast by evening with northeasterly winds
turning easterly in the afternoon hours. High pressure will exit
northeast of the region Tuesday with a warm front lifting north
across the area allowing winds to become southerly, but no rain
expected. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning and then push through the area late
Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and isolated T`storms
over Southeast GA, but with swift enough movement to prevent a
wetting rainfall. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport
winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions Wednesday.

A much drier airmass arrives for the end of the week as strong high
pressure builds in from the northwest that will place critically low
Min RH values over the area Thursday and Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Areas of dense fog will develop
early this morning, becoming widespread along the I-75 corridor and
the Suwannee Valley. Areas of dense will develop tonight away from
the coast as the cold front slowly shifts south of the area. Patchy
fog will remain possible across NE FL both Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                       SUN 11/23  MON 11/24  TUE 11/25  WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)  84/1992    86/2014    85/1992    84/1946
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)  83/2013    84/2014    83/1992    83/2020
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)  88/1906    86/1948    85/1955    84/1973
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)  84/1941    83/1986    83/1986    84/1973

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  51  78  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  60  73  62  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  57  78  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  62  78  63  80 /  10  10  10   0
GNV  57  82  59  84 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  59  81  58  83 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$