012
FXUS62 KJAX 150003
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
703 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog potential this Weekend

- Extended Dry Spell Continues through Next Week. Severe to
  Extreme Drought over Inland Southeast GA and the Northern
  Suwannee Valley, Likely to Expand in Coverage Next Week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 655 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Not much change to the forecast for late tonight. Surface high
pressure will move into the area from the north. Fairly cool
morning lows in the lower to mid 40s inland and lower 50s along
the coastal areas. The fog forecast is a bit of a challenge. We
mixed out dewpoints into the 30s to lower 40s in many inland areas
which should overall support a lower chance of fog toward US
Highways 121 and US 441. Further east, a northeast and east wind
advected in some Atlantic moisture this afternoon with dewpoints
rising to the upper 40s and lower 50s so the eastern zones have a
better chance of areas fog, probably locally dense at times. HREF
and NBM are certainly supportive of late tonight fog tonight.
Visibility may fluctuate at times given that much drier air is
only a few hundred feet above the surface and we have dry grounds.
This may result in a lot of dew forming instead of widespread
fog. In any case, keeping a mention of patchy to areas of fog
given the current forecast guidance. Only slight changes to the
temps and the fog weather grids.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today and Tonight)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure builds into the region from the NW this afternoon,
then settles overhead NE FL/SE GA tonight. Mostly clear skies are
expected with mild afternoon temps this afternoon in the 70s,
followed by cool overnight lows in the 40s inland, and lower 50s
along the Atlantic Coast. Only weather impacts are expected to be
locally dense fog potential over inland areas late tonight and
early Saturday morning as winds become near calm and temps cool
below afternoon mixed dew point temp values. Moderate confidence
in locally dense fog potential, but low confidence if it becomes
organized enough to require any dense fog advisories around
sunrise Saturday. Latest fog guidance is suggesting along the
US17/301 corridors of SE GA and between the I-95 and I-75
corridors across most of inland NE FL, still mostly suggesting
locally dense fog, which would likely remain below dense fog
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure will continue to trek across the area on Saturday,
eventually exiting south of the area during the overnight hours
into Sunday as another frontal boundary pushes in from the north.
The dry weather will continue through the upcoming weekend.
Daytime highs will be in the upper 70s for most locations on
Saturday and Sunday as mostly clear skies are expected each day.
Cooler temps on Saturday along the coast thanks to the onshore
northeast flow bringing in cooler marine air. Winds shift to
become southwesterly on Sunday as the next frontal boundary nears
the area. During the evening hours, Lows will be mostly in the
lower to mid 50s across inland locations and mid to upper 50s
along the coast.

Light winds, clear skies, and lingering low-level moisture from
the Gulf will bring the potential for patchy to areas of fog
during early hours on Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Warmer temperatures are expected to develop over the upcoming
week after the passage of a frontal boundary at the start of the
week. Behind the fropa, high pressure will station itself over the
area which will continue the dry spell. This will lead for the
drought conditions across the area to continue and likely expand
in areal coverage during the upcoming week.

The gradual warming trend will see daytime highs rise into the
lower 80s for most inland locations, with upper 70s along the
coast for most days of the upcoming week. Fog development is
likely to occur each night/morning through midweek as dewpoints
will also begin to trend upward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR at this time but prospects for fog will increase by 11pm-
midnight as temperatures fall off quickly. The light winds and
moisture advection will bring fog chance up for most of the sites.
For the 00z TAFS, generally trended the development of fog to
occur sooner, lowered vsby for JAX to LIFR, and improved for GNV
to MVFR. Fog and any stratus should improve by 13z-14z Saturday.
VFR expected thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

High pressure will build into the region through Saturday. On
Sunday the high pressure will shift southward which will allow for
breezy southerly-southwesterly winds to develop over the local
waters ahead of the next dry frontal passage that is expected on
Sunday night or early Monday morning. High pressure will re-build
into the region for most of next week.

Rip Currents: Low Risk of Rips into the weekend with surf/breakers
generally 1-2 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1208 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Dry weather conditions this weekend as high pressure remains
overhead for much of the weekend ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary on Sunday. Min RH values expected in the upper 20% to lower
30% range across southeast Georgia Saturday afternoon. RH values
improve briefly on Sunday as winds shift to become southwesterly
ahead of a weak cold front. Lower RH values make a return on Monday
over southeast Georgia behind the cold front. Dry conditions
continue during the upcoming week as showers are not expected,
leading for the severe to extreme drought conditions to persist and
likely to expand in areal coverage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  41  77  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  51  74  56  76 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  45  79  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  52  77  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
GNV  46  80  52  79 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  47  78  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$