152
FXUS62 KJAX 191906
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
206 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog through the End of the Week. Patchy Sea Fog Possible
Friday Afternoon & Evening

- Extended Dry Spell Continues this Week. Be very cautious with
outdoor flames  check for local burning bans. Severe to Extreme
Drought Inland Southeast GA & Northern Suwannee Valley

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Weak high pressure will be over the area Tonight, with a frontal
zone remainging to the north. Moisture is expected to advect off the
Gulf Tonight, leading to fog potential. The greatest chance for any
dense fog will be inland. Temperatures will trend above normal
Tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

Not a whole lot of change in the pattern will be expected
through the short term period as the region will be located
within the southwest periphery of a surface ridge as well as
above normal heights in the mid/upper levels. Very light south
to southwesterly wind will be almost variable at times for both
Thursday and Friday, and combined with the warmer temps than
normal over land will result in a modest sea breeze to develop
each day as well. Thursday will be mostly sunny with only a few
or scattered diurnal clouds thanks to the drier air still in
place. A general upward trend in mid and high clouds will be
expected for Friday, which will limit high temps just a little
bit. Highs Thursday will be generally in the low to mid 80s,
except for some upper 70s near the immediate coast. Similar but
a touch cooler Friday with more cloud cover with mid 80s likely
more scarce over the interior. Light southwest flow at the low
levels will persist jsut enough moisture for fog development to
be likely both Friday and Saturday Morning, especially over
southern areas and the I-75/Suwannee River Valley area thanks to
the flow off the Gulf.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Weak surface ridging continues on Saturday before a weakening
cold front approaches on Saturday Night and moves across the
region through Sunday. Given both the rather lackluster dynamics
aloft as well as the current drought situation, looks as though
there will be little to any rainfall/convcetive potential with
this front at all. High pressure will build back in from the
north Monday behind the front before the assocaited high moves
off the Carolinas into the Atlantic Monday and into Tuesday. Our
next front approaches around Tuesday or Tuesday Night which
looks to bring our next "higher" chances for rainfall - albeit
the frontal system and therefore same chances for rain does not
look significant at this time. Temperatures above normal are
expected to continue overall through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z/...

Prevailing VFR conditions through around midnight. Fog development
is expected tonight. The greatest chances for restrictions in this
fog will be inland. This fog will lift after sunrise Thursday,
giving way to prevailing VFR conditions from mid morning through the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure ridging will prevail across the region through
Saturday, with a frontal zone to the north. A cold front will sink
south across area Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high
pressure will then prevail again early next week.

Rip Currents: SE GA Moderate through Thursday
              NE FL Low Today, Moderate Thursday

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...


...LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS FOR COASTAL AREAS TODAY...
...AREAS OF LOW DAYTIME DISPERSIONS THURSDAY & FRIDAY...

Dry, warm weather and increasing humidity trends continue amid
the ongoing drought through the weekend, though no significant
fire weather "watch outs" are expected over the next few days.
Our main concern will be morning fog, which could be locally
dense, and poor afternoon dispersions due to minimal surface and
transport winds. Breezy southwesterly winds will start to
increase with gusts up to 15 mph on Friday as a weak cold front
slowly approaches from the northwest. That front will pass
through Saturday night and Sunday with minimal showers if any at
all.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...Gulf moisture will be more of a
factor on Thursday and Friday, with fog expected to be found mostly
into the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

...CLIMATE...

Record High Temperatures For The Rest of The Week:

Wednesday, November 19:
KJAX: 84/1958
KAMG: 82/1942
KCRG: 82/1984

Thursday, November 20:
KJAX: 86/1988
KGNV: 88/1906
KAMG: 83/1942

Friday, November 21:
KJAX: 84/1991
KGNV: 86/1973
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 82/2004

Saturday, November 22:
KJAX: 84/1973
KGNV: 86/1906
KAMG: 83/2011
KCRG: 81/1997

&&


$$