357
FXUS62 KJAX 251818
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
118 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Morning Fog Potential Wednesday Morning. Visibilities down to a
quarter mile or less possible, especially inland areas

- Near Record Warmth & Dry Conditions Continue through. Be very
Cautious with Outdoor fires  check for local burn bans

- Hazardous Marine Conditions Thursday into the Weekend. Small Craft
Advisory conditions arriving Thursday

- Potential Light Freeze/Frost Friday & Saturday Morning

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 mph will continue through the
rest of the day as a warm front lifts through the area. Temperatures
across the area are already in the lower 80s. Some locations could
reach near or above record levels by peak heating as daytime highs
will range in the lower to mid 80s over inland locations with lower
80s along the coast. Overnight lows will be similar to Monday night,
with upper 50s to lower 60s across inland locations and lower 60s
along the coast. There will likely be enough low level moisture from
the Gulf to bring about fog development over portions of inland SE
GA, but predominantly over NE FL during the predawn hours.

Along and ahead of an approaching cold front, showers and isolated
storms will look to push into far interior SE GA during the later
part of Tonight into Wednesday Morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Showers with potential embedded thunderstorms will build into the
forecast area from out of the northwest on Wednesday, ahead of an
advancing cold front with the highest chances for convection
occurring over southeast Georgia and into northeast Florida west of
Duval County and extending through the Suwannee Valley region.
Rainfall amounts are expected to be upwards of 0.1 inches for
affected inland areas. Breezy southwesterly-westerly winds will
shift to become more out of the north as the front passes. High
temperatures will drop significantly between Wednesday and Thursday
with max temps in the upper 70s and lower 80s dipping down into the
60s following the frontal passage. Overnight low temperatures will
experience a similar drop with min temps in the 40s and 50s dropping
into the lower 30s over southeast Georgia and in the lower 40s for
inland northeast Florida. Potential for patchy frost developing
overnight Thursday and into early Friday morning over inland
southeast Georgia.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Dry weather conditions will be in place for the Friday and Saturday
as high pressure and dry air settle over the region. Chances for
showers and possible thunderstorms will return on Sunday as high
pressure moves off to the northeast and moist southwesterly flow
develops over the region ahead of an advancing frontal boundary
building in from out of the northwest. Overnight and early morning
frost is forecasted for early Friday and again on Saturday night
into Sunday morning, primarily affecting southeast Georgia and
inland portions of northeast Florida. Temperatures will experience a
warming trend through the weekend and into the beginning of next
week with max and min temps rising to be above the seasonal average
by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conds and South to Southwest winds at 5-10 knots through the
afternoon, with a weak SE sea breeze wind shift expected at
CRG/SSI/SGJ by 18-20Z time frame. VFR conds continue into the early
evening hours. Fog chances are expected after 06Z across inland
sites of GNV/VQQ, clearing closer to 12Z. Shower chances remain low
during the TAF period, left out any mention for now.

&&

.MARINE...

Departing high pressure along the eastern seaboard will bring breezy
southerly winds across the local waters through the rest of Today.
Winds shift to become southwesterly by Wednesday as an approaching
cold front begins to press across the waters. By late Wednesday into
Thursday, winds shift to become northwesterly to northerly behind
the front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible by
Thursday. Conditions may persist on Friday and possibly into
Saturday as winds shift to the northeast and east.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents as surf/breakers
slowly build into the 2-3 ft range.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

High pressure will continue to move off to the northeast of the
region today as a warm front lifts north across the area and winds
shift to become southerly. A cold front will approach from the
northwest Wednesday morning with increasing breezy southwesterly
winds 10-15 mph. Scattered showers will spread into the Suwannee
Valley and inland Southeast GA with afternoon isolated
thunderstorms, but less chances eastward towards the coast as
showers dissipate late in the day along the front, limiting total
rainfall amounts. Increasing southwesterly surface and transport
winds will produce areas of high daytime dispersions on Wednesday.

Much drier air mass arrives Thursday and persists through Friday as
strong high pressure builds from the northwest. Very low dew points
into the upper teens/low 20s over inland Southeast GA and into the
Suwannee Valley of Northeast FL will create critically low Min RH
values 20-25 percent Thursday and Friday afternoons. While winds
appear marginal 10-15 mph, gusts may exceed 25 mph at times and
support Elevated fire danger conditions Thursday. Southeast Georgia
10 hour fuels appear to not reach thresholds as well, staying well
above 6 percent.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS..Areas of fog, locally dense, will
develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across the I-75
corridor to near highway 301 over Northeast FL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures at local climate sites...

                       TUE 11/25  WED 11/26

Jacksonville, FL (JAX)  85/1992    84/1946
Craig Exec Arpt  (CRG)  83/1992    83/2020
Gainesville, FL  (GNV)  85/1955    84/1973
Alma, Georgia    (AMG)  83/1986    84/1973

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
AMG  60  77  39  60 /  20  40   0   0
SSI  63  79  46  63 /   0  20   0   0
JAX  60  84  46  66 /   0  20   0   0
SGJ  63  83  53  67 /   0  10  10   0
GNV  60  84  50  68 /   0  20   0   0
OCF  60  82  53  68 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$