351
FXUS62 KJAX 011804
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
104 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Strong to Isolated Severe Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday. Tuesday Morning:
  Southeast GA & Suwannee River Valley. Tuesday Midday &
  Afternoon: Remainder of NE Florida. Main Strong Storm Hazards:
  Gusty 40-60 mph & Isolated Brief Tornadoes

- High Risk for Rip Currents Northeast FL Beaches Today,
  Moderate for southeast GA

- Small Craft Advisory Portions of Area Waters Tuesday

- Patchy Frost For Inland Southeast GA Wed & Thu Mornings

- Extreme Drought for Inland Areas

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cold front is south of the area with a prevailing north to northeast
flow. This is keeping temps chilly in southeast GA in the upper
50s and lower 60s, with 60s to around 70 for northeast FL. The
front will start to move back north over the area this evening
while a weak low pressure trough/low develops off the southeast
GA coast and moves northeast. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure
will form near the western FL panhandle by 1 AM tonight, and tracks
northeastward. The low will reach into the south central GA area
by about 7 AM Tuesday, and by then the warm front will push up
into southeast GA.

Mainly isolated shower activity over the area at this time. But,
a small batch of showers has now moved into the FL Big Bend and
Suwannee Valley, that will be headed through portions of
southeast GA this aftn and around the I-10 corridor.

Overnight, a stronger cold front will approach from the west and we
will see more numerous showers and possibly isolated isolated storm
chances after midnight, especially for inland southeast Georgia and
over the local waters. Higher storm coverage / strong storm
potential will increase after daybreak. Temps tonight will drop
back down into the 50s for southeast GA and Suwannee Valley and
60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move southeast across the region during the day
Tuesday. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop
along and ahead of the front. A few strong thunderstorms are
expected. Based on frontal timing, there will be a large range in
temperatures Tuesday, with highs in the middle 60s over inland SE
GA, to near 80 south of Gainesville.

The front will move off to the southeast Tuesday night, as high
pressure builds from the northwest. The high will build to the north
Wednesday. Cold advection will a northerly flow will keep
temperatures below normal Wednesday with high s about 10 degrees
lower than Wednesday. Ridging will remain in place into Wednesday
night, with lows dipping into the middle 30s over inland SE GA, and
upper 30s to lower 40s over inland NE FL. The northerly flow down
the coast, will keep temperatures a little milder at beachfront
communities. Frost will be expected over inland SE GA Tuesday night
and Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure ridging will weaken across the area Thursday, as
another low begins to lift northeast out of the Gulf. This low will
then track northeast across the southeastern US Friday into Friday
night. The cold front associated with this low will track southeast
into area Friday night, and may stall through Saturday night, before
slowly moving to the south Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure
will build to the north Monday.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be forecast from
Friday through Sunday night.

Temperatures will be above normal through Saturday, then near to
below Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Multilayered clouds over the region with more prevailing MVFR
cigs and some IFR cigs developing for the coastal TAFs through
the evening hours. Should be starting to get some MVFR cigs
around GNV by this evening, probably near or after about 01z.
Tonight and into Tuesday morning, all TAF sites should see MVFR
to IFR ceilings as a strong cold front approaches. Rain chances
come up to about 20-30 percent toward 12z, and then more numerous
showers and possibly embedded isolated storms after 12z. Subsequent
TAFs will be able to refine mention of TSRA if needed. LLWS is
likely to develop for most of the Duval TAFs by around the
11z-15z time frame as 1-2 kft south-southwest winds increase to
35-40 kt.

&&

.MARINE...

A frontal boundary south of the area will lift north across the area
as a warm front late tonight, as an area of low pressure lifts
northeast out of the Gulf. As this low tracks northeast across the
southeastern states, a cold front will move through Tuesday. A round
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany this frontal passage.
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected over portions of the
area waters, beginning early Tuesday morning until Tuesday night.
Another frontal system affects the area waters on Friday and
Saturday increasing the chances of showers and higher winds again.

Rip Currents: For Today, high risk for northeast FL, and moderate
for southeast GA. For Tuesday, moderate risk is posted.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A warm front will lift north across region through Tonight. A
cold front will move southeast across the area Tuesday. As a
result, Showers with embedded thunderstorms can be expected
Tonight and Tuesday. High pressure will build to the northwest
Tuesday, and to the north Wednesday into Thursday. An area of
low pressure will lift northeast out of the Gulf late in the
week, providing another chance for showers and storms from
Friday through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  68  36  57 /  90  90   0   0
SSI  58  73  44  62 /  70  80   0   0
JAX  60  78  44  64 /  60  70   0   0
SGJ  63  80  52  67 /  40  50   0   0
GNV  61  79  48  68 /  50  70   0   0
OCF  62  78  52  68 /  40  60   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through late tonight for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ452-
     454.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ470-472-474.

&&

$$