101
FXUS62 KJAX 021822
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
122 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Minor Tidal Flooding along the Atlantic Coast & Portions of the
  St.

- Johns River Basin Begins Tuesday

- Moderate Rip Current Risk at Area Beaches Today. High Risk
  Possible at the Northeast FL Beaches on Tuesday

- Small Craft Advisories Likely Mon Afternoon through Tues Night

&&

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Potential for light showers today starting in the late afternoon
and evening hours and progressing from west to east, ahead of an
advancing cold front that will settle across the forecast area
overnight and into the early morning hours. Otherwise, nice
weather conditions are expected through the early and mid
afternoon. Northerly winds will strengthen before Monday,
following the fropa. High temperatures this afternoon will be in
the lower 70s over southeast Georgia and in the mid to upper 70s
for northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop down
into the upper 40s for southeast Georgia and int the lower to mid
50s for northeast Florida, with min temps in the mid to upper 60s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Potent shortwave troughing will pivot across our region early on
Monday morning, pushing a cold front offshore and through the FL
peninsula. A drier air mass will quickly overspread our area in
the wake of this frontal passage during the early morning hours,
likely negating any measurable rain chances. Cool air advection
following the frontal passage will likely bring a period of low
stratus clouds to our region around sunrise, but the rapidly
drying air mass, featuring PWATs falling below 0.5 inches before
noon, will likely mix out these lower clouds late in the morning.
Breezy northerly winds will counter full sunshine during the
afternoon hours, keeping highs in the upper 60s for portions of
inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee Valley, ranging to
the lower 70s elsewhere, except for mid 70s for portions of north
central FL.

Strengthening high pressure will build into the southeastern U.S.
from the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday night. A tight local
pressure gradient will persist at coastal locations, keeping a
northerly breeze in place throughout the night at coastal
locations, where lows should remain in the 50-55 degree range.
Winds will gradually decouple at inland locations, with clear
skies allowing lows to fall to the low and middle 40s, except
upper 40s for portions of inland north central FL.

Strong high pressure will migrate from the southern Appalachians
eastward to the Carolinas on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Meanwhile,
troughing departing the U.S. eastern seaboard will be replaced by
ridging aloft that will expand along the northern Gulf coast.
This evolution of the weather pattern will allow for northeasterly
winds to develop and briefly become breezy along the I-95
corridor on Tuesday. Breezy northeasterly winds may bring some
marine stratocumulus clouds onshore from the Atlantic waters by
late Tuesday afternoon, keeping highs in the upper 60s to around
70. Otherwise, plenty of sunshine, a dry air mass and rising
heights aloft will boost highs into the 70s at inland locations.
Winds will decouple at inland locations early on Tuesday evening,
allowing lows to again fall to the low and mid 40s for inland
southeast GA and northern portions of the Suwannee Valley. Lows
elsewhere will fall to the 50-55 range, while a light onshore
breeze keeps coastal lows generally in the 55-60 range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Ridging aloft over our area on Wednesday will flatten late this
week as a trough migrates eastward across the Plains states and
the Upper Midwest. A seasonably dry air mass will otherwise remain
in place across our area on Wednesday and Thursday, with plenty
of sunshine and light winds at inland locations boosting highs to
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Afternoon sea breezes will keep
coastal highs in the mid to upper 70s. Radiational cooling and the
persistent dry air mass will still allow lows to fall to the mid
and upper 40s for inland southeast GA and the northern Suwannee
Valley, with 50s elsewhere, except around 60 for coastal northeast
FL.

Long-term guidance diverges late this week and next weekend with
regards to the strength and evolution of progressive troughing
that will be migrating across the eastern U.S. Southwesterly flow
aloft will strengthen ahead of this trough and its associated cold
front, with the latest 12Z GFS, GFS A.I. and 06Z ECMWF A.I.
guidance indicating higher moisture values advecting into the
southeastern states ahead of this front than compared to 12Z
Canadian and 06Z operational ECMWF guidance. Model blends for the
extended period currently keep our area dry with this potential
frontal passage next weekend, and inland highs are expected to
reach the low and possibly middle 80s from Friday through the
weekend. Afternoon sea breezes will likely keep coastal highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm air advection in advance of this
approaching trough should keep inland lows in the 50s on Friday
and Saturday nights, ranging to 60-65 at coastal locations.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions for most sites through the period with increased
cloud cover and possible light showers progressing through the
forecast area ahead of an advancing frontal boundary. highest
likelihood for showers will be in the vicinity of SSI, between
about 00z-06z with conditions clearing by Monday morning with
winds strengthening from out of the north by around 10z-12z
following the frontal passage.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

High pressure positioned over our area will weaken and move
northeastward this afternoon while a cold front approaches our
region from the west. Coastal troughing over our local waters will
develop into a weak low pressure center off the southeastern
seaboard tonight and will move north-northeastward, paralleling
the Carolina coast. The cold front will cross our local waters
late tonight, accompanied by widely scattered showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms. Northwesterly winds will strengthen in the
wake of the frontal passage late tonight and will shift to
northerly on Monday afternoon, with Small Craft Advisory
conditions set for NE Florida area waters. High pressure will then
build into the southeastern states by Wednesday, allowing
northeast winds and seas to gradually subside.

Rip currents: A low-end moderate risk of rip currents today given
the surf is about 1-2 ft and we see only slight onshore wind
today. Moderate risk mostly expected for northeast FL beaches
Monday, with a lower rip current risk for southeast GA beaches
given the parallel or slight offshore wind flow Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 112 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface and transport winds will shift to northwesterly after
midnight tonight and then northerly by the late morning hours on
Monday, with breezy transport speeds expected during the late
morning and afternoon hours on Monday. Breezy surface winds are
expected for locations along and east of Interstate 95 from late
Monday morning through the afternoon hours. These breezy
conditions will create marginally high daytime dispersion values
on Monday afternoon for inland locations along and north of
Interstate 10, with good values expected elsewhere. Surface and
transport winds will shift to northeasterly on Tuesday, with
breezy transport speeds continuing and breezy surface speeds again
expected for locations along and east of I-95. Fair daytime
dispersion values are forecast for southeast GA, with fair to good
values expected for northeast and north central FL. A drier air
mass will briefly build into inland portions of southeast GA on
Tuesday afternoon, where minimum relative humidity values will
fall to the 25-30 percent range during the afternoon hours.
Diminishing surface and transport winds on Wednesday will
generally yield fair daytime dispersion values, with poor values
possible for coastal southeast GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  44  69  41  73 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  53  70  52  69 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  51  72  46  73 /  10   0   0   0
SGJ  58  71  55  73 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  51  73  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
OCF  53  72  46  76 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ452-454-472-474.

&&

$$