726
FXUS63 KJKL 091820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
220 PM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This cool and dry weather pattern will continue through the
  weekend and into early next week. Expect sunny days and clear
  nights with seasonable temperatures and early morning fog in the
  valleys.

- Thursday night will be the coldest night of the week.
  Temperatures in some of the most sheltered valleys could briefly
  fall into the mid-30s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 150 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

Forecast remains on track early this afternoon. Temperatures are
warming through the 60s under full sun.

UPDATE Issued at 1009 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

River valley fog has lifted/dissipated, leaving mostly sunny to
sunny skies across the area. Forecast through the remainder of the
day remains on track. Expect seasonably cool high temperatures in
the mid 60s to around 70.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 445 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure over the Ohio Valley with its
suppressive influence working down into Kentucky. This has led to
clear skies and decent radiational cooling for eastern parts of
the state. As a result, a small ridge to valley temperature
difference was noted through the night along with the development
of fog in the valleys - becoming locally dense. Currently,
temperatures range from around 50 degrees on the hills to the low
and mid 40s in the low, sheltered spots. Meanwhile, amid light and
variable winds, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 40s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in
terrific agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky in an area of general ridging
at 500mb, though a weak trough does slip to the south of the JKL
CWA through the end of the work week keeping any energy too far
away for any impact locally. Toward Friday evening, another
stronger, but compact, shortwave trough will be diving east
southeast through the Great Lakes. The model spread remains
fairly small concerning these features - supporting using the NBM
as the starting point of the grids with minimal adjustments needed
- mainly just to include some terrain driven enhancement for the
hourly temperatures tonight.

Sensible weather features cool and dry conditions heading into the
weekend despite plenty of sunshine thanks to nearby high
pressure. These more seasonable conditions will make for a
pleasant end to the week, though valley fog can be anticipated at
night along with a modest ridge to valley temperature difference.
In fact, some of the coldest valley spots could see mid 30s for
temperatures for a brief time late tonight but frost is not
anticipated.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
elevation/terrain differences in the temperatures tonight along
with some extra drying to the dewpoints and RH each afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

The global ensemble model system is in overall good agreement in
a significant coastal storm impacting the Mid-Atlantic this
weekend, with upper ridging extending north over the central part
of the country from a closed high in the vicinity of Texas
thereafter. This leaves our region in primarily dry northwesterly
flow aloft this weekend through the middle of next week. It
should be noted that the operational GFS model continues to be a
notable outlier in bringing an active west-northwesterly jet
stream with return southwesterly surface flow and much milder and
wetter conditions at the end of the period (i.e., the middle of
next week).

Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected through the duration of
the extended from Saturday through Wednesday night, with gradually
warming highs through the 70s and lows gradually warming through the
40s and lower 50s each successive night. Some uncertainties begin to
creep into the temperature forecast as the NBM probabilistic
envelope shows an inflection point back downward beginning around
Wednesday of next week, which seems to be indicative of a dry cold
frontal passage around that time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail across all TAF sites at 18Z as high
pressure remains firmly in control of our weather. VFR conditions
will continue through the remainder of the TAF period outside of
limited fog in the sheltered river valleys tonight. Winds will be
northeasterly at 5 to 11 kts this afternoon before slowing to
light, variable this evening and veering southeasterly tonight/
Friday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON