334
FXUS63 KJKL 100455 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1155 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lake Wind Advisories have been issued for the Cave Run Lake and
  Cumberland Lake areas. A heads up SPS is in effect elsewhere.

- Gusty southwesterly winds between 30 and 40 mph are likely on
  Wednesday.

- Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable
  accumulations and localized travel impacts on Wednesday night
  into Thursday morning.

- A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning.

- A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the
  region for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers. Did also add in some flurries or sprinkles in the north
for the overnight hours. These minor adjustments have been sent
to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones
and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 735 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

00Z sfc analysis shows an area of strong low pressure moving into
the northwest Ohio Valley while high pressure has been shunted
southeast of the state. This is creating a rather tight pressure
gradient through eastern Kentucky that will tighten up
considerably later this night. Otherwise, skies are partly cloudy
with generally south to southwest winds of around 10 mph.
Currently, temperatures are running in the upper 30s to lower 40s
on the ridges and near 30 degrees in the sheltered valleys.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 20s across
the area. Have updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest
obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a
freshening of the zones and the issuance of an SPS for gusty
winds away from the lakes late tonight and through Wednesday
afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 413 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Added a Lake Wind Advisory for the Cave Run Lake area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Current conditions show mid and high level clouds slowly clearing out
across Eastern Kentucky. Current temperatures around the area are in
the low to mid 40s, these are likely the highs for this afternoon.
Winds and cloud cover are expected to both increase ahead of the
next system this evening. With elevated winds and increased cloud
cover, temperatures are not expected to decouple, and remain
elevated overnight. Low temperatures should remain in the mid to
upper 30s. A strong low level jet is expected to move across the
area later this evening and overnight. While winds will be
"screaming" a few hundred feet off the surface (50-60 kts), winds
from this boundary layer are not expected to mix down to the surface,
at least not for an extended period of time. BUFKIT Soundings
comparing multiple models across multiple locations indicated the
momentum transfer from this boundry-layer low-level jet wouldn`t be
sufficient enough to reach Wind Advisory conditions. Cross sections of
each model run showed perhaps better chances of this would be along
or right behind the cold frontal passage later Wednesday morning-
afternoon. Lots of collaboration occurred between JKL and neighboring
offices, however it was ultimately decided confidence was too low
earlier today and with the current guidance to issue any products
such as a Wind Advisory. That said, winds will still be gusty,
and later guidance may offer greater confidence on the above.

During the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, rain will begin to spread
across the areas from the northwest to southeast. Winds may be
strongest along the cold front as it passes through the area. Winds
will be out of the southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph,
approaching 40 mph in spots. Strongest winds should be near/west of
I-75 and near/north of I-64. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued
for Lake Cumberland through 6 PM Wednesday. After the front moves
through winds should slowly taper off. Temperatures are expected to
peak in the mid 40s to near 50 through Wednesday afternoon. Winds
then become westerly and eventually northwesterly heading into the
evening. Behind the cold front, temperatures will drop rapidly
through the afternoon. Towards sunset, and into the evening, rain
will mix with and eventually changeover to all snow. By this
point most snow showers should be across SE Kentucky. Some of the
more persistent snow showers may put down a quick skiff or coating
of snow across grassy or elevated surfaces. Only a few tenths of
snow is expected in those areas. Low temperatures eventually drop
into the mid to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 233 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a deep trough over Eastern
Seaboard moving quickly out to sea, with cold advection snow showers
continuing to gradually wind down through the morning. Highs only
recover into the lower to mid 30s Thursday with surface high
pressure ridging moving through during the afternoon.

A warm front approaches from the southwest in advance of another
clipper system for Thursday evening into Friday. Though the column
will be warming as the system advances across the northeastern half
of the forecast area, precipitation will be overrunning a
sufficiently cold atmosphere for accumulating snow to fall, with the
highest accumulations and thus impacts expected along and north of
the Mountain Parkway, where most areas could see around 1 inch of
snow accumulation, with the low potential for 2 inches toward
northeastern Kentucky. Temperatures will be warming as the event
progresses, with surface temperatures warming quickly through the
30s especially as, and/or shortly after, precipitation ends from
southwest to northeast behind the warm front passage.

A milder air mass then persists across the region for Friday and
Saturday, with highs returning to the 40s. However, another clipper
system dives southeast across the area the second half of Saturday
into the first half of Sunday, with rain chances changing to snow
chances as temperatures fall quickly behind the front. This front
will be the leading edge of an arctic air mass, with some of the
coldest conditions of the winter possible Sunday night into Monday,
especially if good radiational cooling conditions can develop.

Model uncertainty increases to end the long-term period next Monday,
with the temperature forecast largely dependent on how quickly warm
advection becomes re-established along with associated clouds (and
perhaps precipitation chances) with the next clipper system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST TUE DEC 9 2025

Mid and high level clouds are still currently crossing the area.
Winds have settled to generally from the south to southwest at
10 kts or less. However, winds aloft will begin to ramp up
tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. With that, a Low Level
Jet (LLJ) moves across the area tonight, leading to the threat of
LLWS for most of the night. Around 12Z, that cold front starts to
pass through producing a potential for mainly light rain for most
TAF sites between 13-18Z Wednesday along with CIGs falling to IFR
or lower by evening. Winds will remain out of the southwest with
gusts of 25-30 kts, though the threat of LLWS diminishes with the
frontal passage and more effective mix down.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 6 PM EST Wednesday for KYZ051-
052-060-079-080-083-084-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GREIF