081
FXUS63 KJKL 101953
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
253 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Southwesterly wind gusts to between 30 and 35 mph are likely
  this afternoon, with locally higher gusts possible. Lake Wind
  Advisories are in effect for the Cave Run Lake and Lake
  Cumberland areas.

- Snow showers are expected to produce spatially variable
  accumulations and localized travel impacts tonight into Thursday
  morning. The greatest snowfall accumulation and impact will be
  above 1,500 feet ASL where a Winter Weather Advisory is
  currently in effect.

- A clipper system is expected to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning.

- A much colder than normal airmass is forecast to move into the
  region for this upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 253 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

At current, a band of stratiform rain is moving across the area from
the northwest, southeast towards the VA state line. Light to
moderate rain is falling with this band and temperatures ahead of
this rain remain in the upper 40s to near 50, while temperatures
across southern Indiana, Ohio, and Northern Kentucky have already
fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s. This cold front will continue
to drop temperatures through this afternoon and evening, leading to
Low temperatures in the upper 20s by Thursday morning.

Over the next several hours, behind this band of rain, conditions
will have to be carefully monitored for snow squall potential,
starting around 9 PM through the pre-dawn hours Thursday.
Conditions look at least plausible for snow bands to form, as winds
become more northwesterly later this evening. Upslope snows are
favored in this flow regime, along with lake-enhanced snows from
Lake Michigan.

The Snow Squall Parameter takes into account moisture in the lowest
2 kilometers, instability, by measuring the decrease in equivalent
potential temperature (theta-e), and wind speed in the lowest 2
kilometers. A value of 1 or greater is said to indicate favorable
conditions for snow squalls to exist.

Looking at multiple short term CAM models such as the RAP13, the
HRRR, and the NAM12, each model have a Snow Squall Parameter of
greater than 1 across  parts of the CWA, mainly east of a line
extending from Lexington to London. In general, snow amounts should
remain under an inch anywhere outside the current advisory areas.
For within the winter weather advisories, under an inch in valleys,
with up to 1 inch at elevations above 1,500 feet. For Letcher and
Harlan counties, up to 2 inches are forecast, with localized 2-4
inch accumulations at elevations above 2,000 feet on and adjacent to
Big Black Mountain. If a snow squall were to develop, areas within
the squall could expect breif but intense snowfall causing near zero
visibility and high snow fall rates leading to quick accumulations.

Thursday, flurries may linger through the morning as the Wednesday
system departs the area. Skies remain overcast with westerly winds
generally under 10 mph. Temperatures will generally remain in the
30s through the day, with the next system quickly approaching
Thursday evening through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025

The forecast period commences with the approach of an Alberta
Clipper, tracking southeast toward the Commonwealth. At the onset of
the forecast, this surface low is anticipated to be traversing the
Central Plains. Analysis of forecast wind patterns and isotherms
suggests that the warm front will remain south of the area, and as
this system tracks from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley, the
forecast area will be situated within the precipitation shield north
of the warm frontal boundary. Deterministic models and their
ensemble members exhibit strong consensus regarding this systems
trajectory across Missouri into Kentucky before its eventual
northeastward ejection toward the Mid-Atlantic states. Given this
path, the forecast area is expected to be bisected by the crucial
540 dam critical thickness line. Although the precise location of
this boundary is subject to spatial and temporal shifts with
subsequent model cycles, the overall trend indicates a north-to-
south split in p-types across the CWA. The northern half of the CWA
will likely experience accumulating snow, while a wintry mix is
anticipated along the freezing line, transitioning to all rain
further to the south. Providing exact accumulation values for the
northern CWA is premature; however, the current forecast supports
the potential need for Winter Weather Advisories from Thursday night
through Friday morning to address the snow hazard.

Following the departure of the first system, a weak surface high
pressure is forecast to build back into the area. Model guidance
maintains consistency regarding a subsequent Clipper system tracking
through the central CONUS, reaching the CWAs vicinity by late
Saturday night into Sunday. PoP is expected to increase Saturday
afternoon; however, guidance for this second system is generally
more northerly, suggesting the heaviest precipitation will be
concentrated north of the CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio
River. Nonetheless, isolated light accumulations across the northern
CWA cannot be entirely ruled out through Sunday morning. A cold
surface high-pressure system will subsequently build into the region
behind the departing low, ushering in some of the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far through the early part of the
succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is expected by the middle
of next week, preceding the approach of another system toward the
end of the forecast period.

In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two
distinct Clipper systems, one from Thursday night into Friday and
the second Saturday night into Sunday. Both systems are forecast to
bring periods of light snow accumulation. Strong surface high
pressure will subsequently establish itself over the region on
Sunday, driving cold temperatures down to the upper single digits
and mid-teens. A notable warmup ahead of the next system is forecast
to commence by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

A cold front moving in from the northwest continues to spread
rain showers southeastward to the VA/KY border and ceilings
have fallen to MVFR. Rain showers transition to snow this evening
and overnight and a brief squall cannot be ruled out. Strong
westerly winds at 10 to 15 kts with gusts of 20 to 30 kts slowly
diminish this evening and overnight. Breif periods of IFR
conditions can`t be ruled out with any snow squall type bands this
evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ051-052-
060-079-080-083-084-106.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Thursday for KYZ086-087-110-113-115>117-120.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for KYZ088-118.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK