396
FXUS63 KJKL 110916
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
416 AM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow showers will produce spatially variable accumulations and
  localized travel impacts into Thursday morning. The greatest
  snowfall accumulation and impact will be above 1,500 feet where
  Winter Weather Advisories are currently in effect.

- A clipper system is on track to produce more widespread winter
  precipitation on Thursday night into Friday morning. An
  additional Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for this over
  northeast Kentucky.

- A much colder than normal airmass moves into the region for
  this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1135 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

Snow showers and squalls continue to move through eastern Kentucky
late this evening but the intensity is expected to start winding
down after midnight. Area web cams and the Jackson weather office
parking lot indicate that the heaviest showers are capable of
briefly coating the road surfaces but melt within 10 minutes.
Expect some of this to stick better later in the night as CAA
continues. Otherwise, updated the forecast with inclusion of the
latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids along with PoPs from
the CAMs and current radar images. These adjustments have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the
zones, SPSs, HWO, and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 705 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

23Z sfc analysis shows cyclonic flow through eastern Kentucky -
much of this coming off the open Great Lakes. As a result, there
will be ample moisture for scattered snow showers through the rest
of the evening and into the overnight hours. The tight pressure
gradient from strong low pressure to the northeast of the area
will keep winds brisk from the northwest through the evening while
bringing in a colder air mass - as well as gusts to 30 mph. An
SPS has been issued for this concern, outside of the current
southeast Winter Weather Advisories, with more scattered activity
and lesser wintry impacts anticipated. Currently, temperatures
are running in the mid 30s west to the low 40s in the southeast.
Meanwhile, dewpoints are generally in the low to mid 30s. Have
updated the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends
for the T/Td/Sky grids. Did also touch up the PoPs into and
through the night per the current radar and CAMs guidance. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs. In addition, the 00Z guidance
will be examined for possible adjustments to the forecast with
that next inbound snow system - due here Thursday evening into
Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 253 PM EST WED DEC 10 2025

At current, a band of stratiform rain is moving across the area from
the northwest, southeast towards the VA state line. Light to
moderate rain is falling with this band and temperatures ahead of
this rain remain in the upper 40s to near 50, while temperatures
across southern Indiana, Ohio, and Northern Kentucky have already
fallen into the upper 30s to low 40s. This cold front will continue
to drop temperatures through this afternoon and evening, leading to
Low temperatures in the upper 20s by Thursday morning.

Over the next several hours, behind this band of rain, conditions
will have to be carefully monitored for snow squall potential,
starting around 9 PM through the pre-dawn hours Thursday.
Conditions look at least plausible for snow bands to form, as winds
become more northwesterly later this evening. Upslope snows are
favored in this flow regime, along with lake-enhanced snows from
Lake Michigan.

The Snow Squall Parameter takes into account moisture in the lowest
2 kilometers, instability, by measuring the decrease in equivalent
potential temperature (theta-e), and wind speed in the lowest 2
kilometers. A value of 1 or greater is said to indicate favorable
conditions for snow squalls to exist.

Looking at multiple short term CAM models such as the RAP13, the
HRRR, and the NAM12, each model have a Snow Squall Parameter of
greater than 1 across  parts of the CWA, mainly east of a line
extending from Lexington to London. In general, snow amounts should
remain under an inch anywhere outside the current advisory areas.
For within the winter weather advisories, under an inch in valleys,
with up to 1 inch at elevations above 1,500 feet. For Letcher and
Harlan counties, up to 2 inches are forecast, with localized 2-4
inch accumulations at elevations above 2,000 feet on and adjacent to
Big Black Mountain. If a snow squall were to develop, areas within
the squall could expect breif but intense snowfall causing near zero
visibility and high snow fall rates leading to quick accumulations.

Thursday, flurries may linger through the morning as the Wednesday
system departs the area. Skies remain overcast with westerly winds
generally under 10 mph. Temperatures will generally remain in the
30s through the day, with the next system quickly approaching
Thursday evening through Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 416 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

The extended forecast window opens with lingering, post-frontal
upslope snow showers stemming from Fridays preceding clipper system.
Weak surface high pressure is forecast to build into the area, but
this will be very short-lived as extended model guidance and
associated ensembles remain in strong agreement and maintain
consistency regarding a subsequent fast-moving clipper system. This
second system is projected to track across the central CONUS,
reaching the CWA vicinity by late Saturday night into Sunday.

Very few significant changes have occurred with respect to the
temporal and spatial components of this incoming feature. The PoP is
expected to increase Saturday afternoon. This system is generally
forecast to maintain a more northerly track. With this northerly
trajectory, the heaviest precipitation is concentrated north of the
CWA, primarily along and north of the Ohio River. However, of note,
some model trends suggest a potential southward shift in the track,
and a few guidance runs have hinted at this possibility. This
potential shift would have significant consequences on anticipated
snowfall totals, the placement of the freezing line, and which areas
receive frozen versus liquid precipitation. Nonetheless, the highest
snow accumulations are currently forecast along and north of a line
from Powell to Pike Counties through Sunday morning, but this
delineation could change should the feature shift north or south.

Unseasonably cold surface high pressure will subsequently build into
the region behind the departing low-pressure system on Sunday,
advecting some of the coldest air of the season thus far through the
early part of the succeeding week. A gradual warming trend is
expected by the middle of next week, preceding the approach of
another synoptic system for Wednesday.

In summary, the period will be characterized by the passage of two
distinct clipper systems. Lingering post-frontal snow showers will
initiate the period from the first clipper, and a second fast-moving
clipper is forecast for Saturday night into Sunday. There remains
some uncertainty regarding total snowfall accumulations with the
Saturday/Sunday system, but at a minimum, the issuance of Winter
Weather Advisories will be necessary to cover this expected event.
Strong surface high pressure will subsequently establish itself over
the region on Sunday, driving minimum temperatures down to the upper
single digits and mid-teens. A notable warm advection regime ahead
of the next system is forecast to commence by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM EST THU DEC 11 2025

In the wake of the cold front that pushed through the area this
past afternoon colder air continues to pour into this part of the
state. Periods of IFR conditions can be expected with any brief
squall type bands that pass through a terminal early overnight.
Conditions will gradually improve during the day, Thursday. Brisk
west to northwest winds slowly diminish overnight evening and
overnight before picking up to 10 kts on Thursday. The next
system will impact mainly northern terminals by the end of the
period with lowering CIGs and the potential for visibility
restrictions before midnight.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-088-104-106>115-
118>120.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
KYZ086>088-110-113-115>118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GREIF