800
FXUS63 KJKL 192147
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
447 PM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds linger and patchy drizzle lingers into the evening
  followed by areas of dense fog on ridges late this evening and
  overnight.

- Active weather continues through the end of the work week, with
  a seasonably mild and moist airmass in place.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Late this afternoon, the axis of an upper level ridge extended
from the Gulf to the mid MS Valley while an upper level shortwave
extended from Canada south to the western Dakotas. Meanwhile an
upper level low was centered over the southwest Conus. Further
west, an upper level trough was nearing the west coast of the
Conus and BC. At the surface, a frontal zone continues to
gradually sag south of eastern KY with a north to south
temperature gradient in place with mainly 40s to near 50 degree
readings near and north of the Mtn Parkway and low to mid 60s
nearer to the TN border. Low clouds and stratus build down/reduced
visibilities were present, especially on ridges in the north
while some drizzle was also falling from these low clouds
generally near and north of JKL.

This evening through tonight, the axis of the upper level ridge
will shift east and across the Commonwealth though the ridge will
be flattening and a trend of height falls is anticipated. As this
occurs, the upper level low/trough in Canada to the Dakotas will
progress east and near Hudson Bay south to Manitoba and the upper
MS Valley region. The upper low in the southwest meanwhile should
meander to AZ downstream of the upper trough nearing the west
coast of the Conus. The upper low should weaken to an open wave
that rotates toward the Southern Rockies and then into sections
of the Plains downstream of the trough entering the west coast of
the Conus the southern portion of which closes off to another
upper low near the Southern CA coast. Weaker shortwaves in
southwest to west flow from the Southern Plains should cross the
Commonwealth Thursday into Thursday night. As the shortwave
trough moves from the Southwest Conus toward the Plains, a sfc low
should organize over the TX and OK panhandle region by late on
Thursday and then track into KS. At the same time, a northern
stream front should drop across the western and central Great
Lakes and approach the OH Valley. The boundary currently dropping
south of the area will return north as a warm front into the TN
Valley and OH Valley late tonight and Thursday and then into
central and eastern KY Thursday night.

Drizzle may linger into the evening as the frontal zone drops
south though another round of stratus build down and fog on the
ridges, particularly in the north, is anticipated tonight. Some of
this may be dense in the northern half of the area. Low clouds may
tend to lift and mix out a bit during the day on Thursday, but
high and mid level clouds will be moving in ahead of the next
system. Thickening and lowering clouds should occur with
isentropic lift over the warm front lifting toward the area late
Thursday and into Thursday night. Chances of showers will increase
with this from the west and southwest late Thursday. As moisture
in the column deepens Thursday evening and night and forcing
increases, widespread rain or showers and even some thunder with
elevated instability is anticipated. Limited diurnal ranges are
anticipated in the near term period. However, temperatures in the
northern half of the area should be milder on Thursday as
compared to the past two days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 429 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025

The extended period starts with the continuation of an active
pattern. Models and ensembles are in good agreement of a warm front
working into the area from the southwest late Thursday evening. By
Friday morning, the front will become stationary, with showers
through the day. After sunset, an area of low pressure over the
Ozarks will progress eastward, introducing a small chance of
thunderstorms across the area.

Saturday morning, A cold front in the Ohio Valley from a passing
Canadian low will help move the stationary front over Kentucky out
of the area. This will lead to showers and thunderstorms tapering
off in coverage in in the afternoon-evening. This cold front will
also clear out some of the skies over the area, however there
remains some uncertainty on the timing and how far south the
clearing occurs which has lead to a good spread in plausible low
temperatures.

Sunday, weak ridging tries to build into the region however the next
system is on the horizon. An upper level low is modeled to come out
of the Southwest U.S. heading into Monday. Cloud cover may initially
be thin enough where a ridge valley split could occur however clouds
will increase after midnight as the system approaches. Overnight
temperatures have been adjusted to where the low occurs slightly
after midnight rather than just before sunrise. Lows Sunday night
will generally be in the upper 30s in hollows and sheltered valleys,
and lower 40s along ridge tops.

Model and ensemble spread starts to rear their heads heading into
Monday and beyond. Most guidance does keep the area dry for the
most part, however there are some (not in the majority) models that
area more progressive with the approaching system. This has lead to
PoP chances of 15-24% being held through the forecast, introducing
an isolated chance of showers. Tuesday, most of the guidance shows a
cold front moving trough the area producing showers. Showers are
then expected to taper off heading through Wednesday morning as the
system departs the area.

Temperatures generally remain in the low to mid 60s through Tuesday.
Friday will be the warmest day, in the upper 60s to low 70s.
Wednesday, temperatures return closer to normal in the upper 50s. As
for low temperatures, Friday lows will likely be in the 50s, with
other nights generally somewhere in the 40s. Colder air looks to
move in to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025

Extensive low clouds and fog on ridges remain across northern
sections of the area including KJKL, KSJS, and KSYM, while some
breaks or at least in the way fog was in place near KSME and KLOZ
and point south. Northern locations are at or below airport mins
while from near KLOZ and KSME south IFR and MVFR was observed.
Through the afternoon, some minor improvements are generally
forecast and a category improvement may occur. However, by 00Z
and after, the boundary that has been lingering over the region
will have sunk south and low clouds and stratus build down may
occur once gain and IFR ceilings and or vis should return near or
north of a KSME to KLOZ line including KSYM, KJKL, and KSJS. as
the night progresses. During the last 6 hours of the period,
gradual improvements to MVFR or VFR are anticipated. Winds will
remain light through the period at all terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JP