730
FXUS63 KJKL 052115
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
415 PM EST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

- Temperatures will average below normal through at least the next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 235 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

The most recent surface analysis indicates that low pressure system
from last night and this morning is propagating eastward and is
positioned near the North Carolina Outer Banks as of the 1627Z
surface analysis. To the north and northwest, minor disturbances are
progressing within the mean flow but are having very little impact
on the local area. Locally, while it doesn`t seem like it, surface
high pressure centers situated to the southwest and northeast are
exerting their influence over the JKL CWA.

Surface high pressure is anticipated to prevail over the region for
the remainder of the day and throughout much of the current forecast
period. However, low-level moisture is projected to persist, trapped
beneath a robust inversion situated near the 800 mb level. This
trapped moisture will maintain widespread stratus clouds across the
majority of the region. While diurnal heating may induce temporary
breaks in the cloud deck, nocturnal saturation will swiftly
reestablish the cloud cover, ensuring the persistence of the stratus
layer.

Saturday`s weather will be largely similar to today`s, with the
notable exception of the approach of a weak, mostly dry cold front.
This feature originates from then an upper-level perturbation
tracking through a quasi-stationary H5 trough anchored over the
Hudson Bay region. The primary upper-level disturbance and surface
wave is forecast to remain largely over southern Canada, but its
associated frontal features are expected to propagate across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Based on forecast soundings, a
discernible layer of low-level dry air is present, which will
effectively limit the overall PoP potential for Saturday. However,
isolated sprinkles or flurries cannot be entirely dismissed,
particularly for locations along and north of the I-64 corridor.
Aside from this transient wave, areas south of the I-64 corridor
will be under the influence of surface high pressure leading to dry
conditions. Following the passage of this weak wave, surface high
pressure is expected to rebuild and come to dominate the weather for
the rest of the short-term forecast period.

The overall forecast period is anticipated to remain dry, punctuated
only by localized areas of drizzle this afternoon and the potential
for sprinkles and flurries on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
below the seasonal average. High temperatures are forecast to reach
the mid to upper 30s today and upper 30s to mid 40s for Saturday.
Overnight low temperatures will be comparatively mild, falling into
the upper 20s to lower 30s. Any period of significant cloud breaks
overnight could allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level low in the
Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending south across the Great
Lakes to the MS and OH Valleys to eastern TX while an upper level
ridge is expected to extend from the eastern Pacific into
portions of the western Conus. A shortwave associated with that
system is expected to be moving into the Northern Great Lakes with
another in mid MS Valley vicinity a that point. At the surface,
ahead of these shortwaves, a sfc low is expected to be over
southern MI with another sfc wave in the mid MS Valley vicinity
along a frontal zone that should extend across Southern New
England and the mid Atlantic states to southern MI to the mid MS
Valley to the Southern Plains.

The more northern shortwave crossing the Great Lakes and the
second nearing the Lower OH Valley should progress east and
northeast to begin the period into Quebec and the Northeast to Mid
Atlantic and TN and OH Valleys through Sunday and Sunday night.
This should result in the 500 mb trough axis shifting into the
eastern Conus and nearing eastern KY by late Sunday night. As this
occurs additional shortwaves should move into the trough in
northwest flow aloft this weekend. West to northwest flow should
remain through much of next week as the ridging remains from the
Pacific into western portions of the area with troughing from
Canada into Central and eastern portions of the Conus. Additional
shortwaves should move through this troughing through the period.
The first frontal zone should move into eastern KY later Sunday
and southeast of the area Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Moisture should gradually increase ahead of it on Sunday.

By the time the atmosphere saturates enough for precipitation to
fall on Sunday, late in the morning to early afternoon, just plain
rain is anticipated. Colder air will arrive behind the cold front
later Sunday evening through Sunday night, and any remaining
precipitation should change from rain showers to snow showers.
12Z LREF probabilities for more than a dusting/tenth of an inch of
snow are in the 30 to 60 percent range for the 24 hour period
ending at 7 PM EST on Monday, while the 12Z LREF probabilities for
more than a half of an inch of snowfall during that timeframe are
currently in the 10 to 30 percent range. Thus with these grand
ensemble probabilities and 12Z operational runs of the GFS and in
particular the 06Z and 12Z ECMWF also suggesting a chance for
some light accumulations for some locations, opted to add this
potential to the HWO.

A brief window of sfc and shortwave upper ridging follows later
Monday into early Tuesday before the next shortwave and associated
system in northwest flow aloft move to the Great Lakes to OH
Valley region for midweek. As this system approaches, the
pressure gradient and winds aloft will both increase, as early as
Tuesday afternoon, and especially later Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The 12Z BUFKIT momentum transfer suggests that wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph and nearing the 40 mph wind advisory
threshold could be reached. Mean wind gusts midday Wednesday into
the afternoon in EPS based guidance are mainly 30 mph or stronger
in central to eastern KY. This would be the initial forecast
concern with mid to late week systems across eastern KY.
Otherwise, precipitation chances should again return at midweek
for Wednesday into Wednesday night, initially in the form of rain.
Then as colder air moves in Wednesday night to early Thursday,
lingering rain showers could mix with or change to snow showers. A
third cold front and shot of colder air should arrive from later
Thursday night into next Friday as yet another system nears in
west to northwest flow aloft. This front should bring additional
chances for showers and pending the thermal profile these could
fall as rain or snow showers or a mix thereof.

Highs should average near 5 degrees below normal, in the 40s, on
Sunday ahead of the cold front, with highs in the 30s or about 15
degrees below normal forecast for Monday. Lows should be
seasonably cold for Monday night with high pressure dominating,
mainly in the upper teens to mid 30s. Temperatures should again
have a moderating trend from Tuesday into Wednesday with highs
nearing normal for this time of year on Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures return to below normal levels to end the work week
behind the second cold front in the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

LIFR to low-end MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through
much of the forecast period as a layer of moisture is trapped
under an inversion. Until this inversion breaks, low-CIGS can be
expected. A few breaks in the clouds will be possible this
afternoon but those breaks will be short-lived. Otherwise, the
period will be LIFR to MVFR. Guidance does have improvement to VFR
toward 18Z/Saturday and opted to trend that route in the TAF.
Lastly, winds will be light and variable.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...VORST