037
FXUS63 KJKL 061928
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
228 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations are possible behind a cold frontal
  passage on Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday
  ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active next week, although confidence
  remains low in each passing system`s precipitation type forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 228 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

The latest surface analysis depicts a surface high-pressure center
over the Mid-South, which is currently dominating the weather
pattern across much of the eastern CONUS . To the northwest, a cold
front is tracking southeastward, moving through the Great Lakes and
into the Ohio Valley. Locally in eastern Kentucky, breaks in the
stratus cloud deck are allowing for intermittent periods of sunshine
for the first time in what seems like several days; however, an
expansive stratus deck is building eastward from central Kentucky
and is slowly advancing into the eastern part of the state.

For the remainder of the day and into the early overnight hours, the
influence of the surface high-pressure system will persist. The
approaching cold front is not expected to significantly advance much
closer to the forecast area than its current position, but the
region immediately ahead of it will become an area of enhanced
baroclinicity as a larger synoptic system approaches from the west.
Notwithstanding this, the daytime will feature partly cloudy skies
with periods of sunshine. Maximum temperatures are forecast to range
from the upper 30s in the Bluegrass region to the mid-40s
southeastward toward the VA/KY/TN state lines. The overnight
temperature forecast presents a challenge due to uncertainty in the
low-level cloud cover. Forecast guidance suggests the southeastern
portion of the CWA will experience clear skies tonight, while the
Bluegrass and areas northwest of the escarpment will remain under
low-level clouds. The location of this clearing line will
significantly impact minimum temperatures, leading to a noticeable
ridge-valley temperature split across the southeast and
comparatively warmer minimums in the Bluegrass due to the insulating
effect of the cloud layer.

Concurrently, to the northwest, a surface low-pressure system
(currently tracking through northern Nebraska) is forecast to move
eastward along the aforementioned cold front. This feature is
expected to track into the Ohio Valley through the overnight period
and is the source of the low clouds expected over the Bluegrass
tonight. This system, which exhibits characteristics of a clipper-
type low-pressure system, is then forecast to lift northeastward
toward the Adirondacks. This progression will drag the surface cold
front toward the forecast area, resulting in increasing PoP
beginning Sunday afternoon and persisting into the first half of the
next work week. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures will be
sufficiently warm to support liquid precipitation, with Sundays high
temperatures expected to climb into the mid-40s to lower 50s.
However, as CAA begins to take hold behind the departing system, a
transition from rain to snow is anticipated to occur through Monday
morning.

The forecast period begins with another day of dry conditions
featuring partly sunny skies and cloud breaks, followed by the quick-
moving clipper system that will introduce rain first, which is then
expected to transition to snow Sunday night into Monday morning as
the colder air arrives.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

To start the new work-week, Monday will start off with snow
showers, expected to taper off through afternoon. The region
will be under light northerly flow through the day, with
occasional northwest flow. While northwesterly flow is most
favorable for upslope snows, the more northerly winds should
limit orographically enhanced snows. That said, a couple tenths
of snow is currently expected along and south of the Mountain
Parkway, with highest totals possible across the far southeastern
most counties. Temperatures Monday will generally remain in the
30s, with regional ranges from the low 30s across NE Kentucky, to
upper 30s across the south. A trough axis will pass through the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day leading to clearing
skies and variable winds Monday evening. Temperatures overnight
are likely to drop into the teens and low 20s for sheltered
valleys, and mid 20s for ridge-tops.

Tuesday, Eastern Kentucky looks to be under zonal flow, with quiet
weather across the area. Temperatures are expected to rebound into
the lower 40s across the north and upper 40s, approaching 50 across
the south. Overnight, temperatures benefit from increasing cloud
cover ahead of the next approaching system, dropping into the mid to
upper 30s. Speaking of the next system, models and ensembles are in
agreement on a trough approaching the area Tuesday overnight out of
the northwest.

By day-break Wednesday, They`ll be a slight chance of showers. Rain
shower chances slowly spread south across the day and increase in
coverage as this trough deepens and progresses across the area. A
tightening pressure gradient with this system will lead to breezy to
gusty winds during the day. At current, the 00Z data of the ENS, a
member of the LREF ensemble, suggests that there is a 25-40% chance
of wind gusts reaching wind advisory criteria (40-57 mph for any
duration). This is the third run of the LREF showing the gusty wind
potential, with each runs probabilities increasing. Given the time
of year it should be mentioned that winds of this magnitude are
likely to blow any unsecured holiday decorations. With strong
southwesterly winds through the day temperatures could rise into the
upper 40s to lower 50s before dropping into the upper 20s to low 30s
at night.

Active weather looks to continue Thursday and beyond, with a series
of systems approaching the Greater Ohio River Valley one after
another. Periods of rain and snow are likely to  accompany  these
systems however the uncertainty int track, timing, and evolution in
each make it increasingly challenging and subject to change with new
data. There is however a bigger overall signal of cooler weather
towards the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Continued low CIGS will impact TAF sites through the period.
Looking at current satellite imagery, there`s an MVFR stratus
deck building eastward from central Kentucky and will soon start
to impact KSME (which is currently VFR) and eventually KLOZ. The
other remain sites have been up and down through the morning due
to lingering stratus or passing mid-level clouds. The overall
trend is that the stratus deck will continue to shift eastward
through the afternoon before stalling out overnight. Where this
stalls out will depend which terminals move to VFR or remain MVFR
through the remainder of the period. The forecast has KSME, KLOZ
and KSYM remaining MVFR with KJKL and KSJS moving into VFR. Aside
from pesky clouds, light and variable winds are forecast through
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...VORST