917
FXUS63 KJKL 101629
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1129 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season continues to move into
  the region.

- The first snow the event of the season will affect the region
  into tonight. Rounds of snow showers will result in mainly light
  accumulations, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces.

- Locations at 2000 feet and above near VA should experience more
  sustained travel impacts. However, rounds of snow showers will
  lead to some accumulations and reduced visibilities areawide.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1129 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

Temperatures remain quite cold late this morning, ranging from the
mid 10s on top of Big Black Mountain to the lower 30s in the
deepest river valleys. Convective snow showers should quickly fill
in through early afternoon, becoming widespread and coalescing
into steady snow for many areas mid to late afternoon. While
ground temperatures are still warm, briefly high snowfall rates
could lead to slushy accumulations on roadways at times. Higher
elevations above 2,000 feet (where temperatures will be in the
teens to mid 20s) are likely to see more consistent accumulations
on roadways as pavement temperatures more easily fall below
freezing there. Snow accumulations through this evening are
generally expected to be up to an inch for many locations.
However, locally higher amounts nearing 2 inches are possible
along the Pottsville Escarpment from Jackson County northward and
generally 2 to 3 inches at elevations above 2,000 feet over the
far southeast. Locally higher amounts cannot be ruled atop Big
Black Mountain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 425 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

Early this morning, the axis of an upper level trough extended
from western Quebec across Ontario and the Great Lakes to the OH
valley to northern Gulf of Mexico in an amplified pattern with an
upper level ridge centered in the southwest Conus that extended
across the Great Basin to to the Northern Rockies to Saskatchewan.
An upper level low moving within this trough was approaching the
Lower OH Valley from the northwest at this time with a lead
shortwave lifting across eastern KY at this time. This and an
upslope component to the flow and continued cold air advection is
resulting in flurries and some embedded light to moderate snow
showers across eastern KY and adjacent areas of the OH Valley
region. At the surface, low pressure was centered over New England
with a cold front trailing south east of the eastern seaboard to
southern FL while sfc high pressure was centered in the Plains.
Temperatures as of 4 AM were in the low 30s in the deeper valley
locations in the south and east and mainly upper 20s elsewhere.
Temperatures had dropped into the mid 20s above 2500 feet and even
the teens above 3500 feet with Black Mtn recently reporting a
temperature of 18 degrees.

Today and tonight, the upper level low is expected to track
southeast into Central KY through midday and across eastern Ky
this afternoon and evening. The upper level low and trough axis
will move east of eastern KY this evening into the overnight and
850 mb temperatures should begin to warm through the night. Low
level moisture remains in place and this system will bring some
additional moisture with it in the low to mid levels. The
approaching upper low and associated cold air advection with 850
mb temperatures poised to drop to the -10C to -13C range as the
upper low passes will serve to steepen lapse rates when combined
with daytime heating. At the same time, the low level flow will
keep a westerly to northwest upslope component.

Thus, an increase in coverage and intensity of snow shower
activity is expected during the late morning to mid afternoon
timeframe from northwest to southeast with the more intense and
greater coverage of snow showers lingering well into the evening
in the southeast. Snow showers should decrease in intensity and
taper to flurries and eventually end with some clearing through
the late evening into the overnight as the combination of the warm
advection and increasing heights as well as low level winds
become more anticyclonic as the sfc high builds into the MS Valley
and Southeast and toward eastern Ky. At the same time,
temperatures will struggle to peak near the freezing mark for
locations below 2000 feet while temperatures at 2000 feet and
above do not make it out of the 20s with the cold airmass in
place. Some areas of more persistent snow shower bands are
anticipated, but the location of these is a bit uncertain. The VA
border counties are one area where over the higher terrain above
2000 or 2500 feet there should be a max in accumulation and where
the bands are more persistent further north and west there will
be other locations that probably pick up over an inch of snow as
well. Some places along or near the escarpment are possible
locations of the additional bands. The more widespread and
intense snow showers should occur into the evening commute today
for locations further north and west of the VA border counties
with some of this more impactful in some locations as compared to
others. Snow may melt at least from roadways in between snow
showers, but some snow showers could be intense enough for periods
of slush or snow covered roads in the afternoon to early evening
along with significant reductions in visibility. Lows tonight
should range from the upper teens to mid 20s, depending on the
degree of clearing with colder readings in the more western
locations and warmer readings nearer to the WV border.

Tuesday, the pattern will deamplify across the Conus with the axis
of the upper trough pulling further east and a gradual increase in
500 mb heights. Additional shortwaves should move through the
broadening trough with an increase in mid and upper level moisture
through the day on Tuesday with the passing shortwaves and in
advance of an approaching warm front. Thus should result in mostly
clear to clear skies late tonight to early Tuesday followed by an
increase in clouds as the day progresses. With the 850 mb
temperatures continuing to modify, temperatures will warm, but
still should average 15 to 20 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

The main change to the extended forecast this morning were to
add more terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures through the
rest of the week and into the start of the weekend. Otherwise,
mostly dry weather should hold through the first part of the
weekend before another large weather system approaches from the
west returning rain chances to the area by late Sunday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Confluent northwesterly mid-level flow on the back side of a highly
amplified upper trough exiting the East Coast Tuesday morning will
quickly transition to a more west-northwesterly flow through
Wednesday as an active jet stream remains across the area. This will
promote fairly moderate warm advection in the lower levels across
the Ohio Valley region, allowing for temperatures to quickly rebound
back to near normal levels by Wednesday. A weak cold front crosses
the area later Wednesday with high pressure moving into the area for
Thursday, before warm advection begins to increase again across the
much of the central part of the country allowing for temperatures to
rise to above normal levels for the end of the week into the
weekend. Model uncertainty increases by next weekend, especially
upstream over the central part of the country, but confidence is
high in strong warm advection will allow for above normal
temperatures during that time. Any potential precipitation chances
appear limited to the late week into the weekend time frame with
possible light rain showers associated with a passing warm front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EST MON NOV 10 2025

Generally light snow showers and flurries were ongoing at issuance
time with mainly VFR ceilings though there was some spotty MVFR at
non TAF locations in snow showers. As an upper low approaches
most locations should experience ceilings decrease to the MVFR
range through 18Z. In addition, snow shower activity is expected
to increase during the 16Z to 20Z timeframe and ceilings into the
IFR range if not briefly lower than that are expected in the more
persistent and heavier snow showers. As 00Z approaches,
improvements to VFR should occur in more northern locations with
improvements to VFR near the VA border through around 03Z as the
upper low departs departs and snow showers taper to light snow
showers and flurries and then end in most places toward 06Z. West
to northwest winds will generally be around 10KT with gusts as
high as 20 to 25KT, especially in the heavier snow showers. Winds
will tend to remain northwest to westerly from 00Z to 12Z, but
decrease to around 5KT with gusts diminishing after sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-104-106-108-111-114.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ085-
086-107-109-110-112-113-115>117-119.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ087-088-
118-120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC/GREIF
AVIATION...JP