041
FXUS63 KJKL 021941
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
241 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty light precipitation will wind down in the southeastern
  counties through by early to mid afternoon.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active again towards the weekend with
  additional chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1119 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

The steadier band of precipitation has departed to the north and
east with lingering flurries and likely some drizzle or spotty
freezing drizzle mixed in for the southeast as cloud top temps
are only marginal for a prevalence of ice crystals. Areas of
stronger radar returns/convectively elements would be most likely
to be flurries with this corresponding to some recent KY Mesonet
webcam imagery. Any freezing drizzle would be above 1500 feet and
probably more on the order of 2000 feet elevation per recent
observation trends. This light precipitation should end by early
to mid afternoon as drier air advects in.

UPDATE Issued at 801 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Weather is progressing pretty much on track with the forecast,
with the back edge of significant precip making its way southeast
through the area. Have updated temperatures based on latest obs
and trends, and made any necessary adjustments (which were very
few) to freezing drizzle potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 534 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Winter weather event is ongoing. An upper level trough extends
from the Great Lakes to the souther plains early this morning,
with an embedded shortwave over the lower Ohio Valley, while
surface low pressure near the FL panhandle is transitioning to
development near the Carolinas coast. Overrunning moisture from
the south along with lift from the trough/shortwave is responsible
for the ongoing precipitation. Brightbanding is observed on radar
early this morning over the northern portion of the forecast area
indicating the change from rain to snow. The switch will continue
to make its way southeast as colder air arrives, especially aloft.
However, outside of our northern/northwestern counties the period
of any snow should be brief enough to not be a concern. Areas
around I-64 northward will likely see an inch or two, with amounts
tapering off to the southeast. The most significant precipitation
is expected to taper off from northwest to southeast this morning.
As deeper moisture aloft is lost, ice production in the clouds may
also be lost, which could result in a change to drizzle (or
freezing drizzle where temps remain below freezing). Even drizzle
will eventually taper off as moisture becomes more and more
shallow, with the last of it tapering off in southeast KY in the
afternoon or early evening.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight, but cold air
advection and upslope flow will persist as the high approaches
and will make it difficult for clouds to break up. Tentatively
have decreasing clouds forecast tonight into Wednesday, but
confidence in the timing is not very high.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

The forecast period commences with surface high-pressure dominance,
yet aloft, two distinct synoptic-scale waves are poised to govern
the weather through the initial segment of the forecast. The first
is a minor shortwave trough currently ejecting from the Great Lakes,
which is expected to have negligible impact on the forecast area.
The more significant feature is a potent upper-level trough moving
eastward from the Rocky Mountains at the start of the period.

This feature is forecast to track swiftly eastward along the Red
River Valley through Thursday before lifting northeastward into the
Tennessee Valley by Friday morning. As this trough lifts, the
precipitation shield will encroach from the south, beginning as all
snow but rapidly transitioning to a wintry mix as the elevated warm
layer advects northward. Both the GEPS and GEFS ensemble
probabilities indicate the highest threat for freezing rain over
Tennessee, with approximately a 10% chance across the southernmost
tier of counties in the forecast area. Nevertheless, as the surface
cyclones warm front progresses northward throughout the day, the
wintry precipitation will transition to predominantly rain before
the system departs the region by late Saturday morning. A brief
period of a wintry mix remains possible on the backside of the
departing system as cold-air advection returns to the region.

Model confidence begins to degrade heading into the remainder of the
weekend. Some agreement exists between the ECMWF and GFS models, but
the ECMWF favors a quasi-zonal flow pattern through the weekend
ahead of another shortwave, whereas the GFS accelerates another fast-
moving shortwave with the CWA remaining under a southwesterly flow
regime through the duration of the weekend. Long-term guidance
returns to better continuity with the development of the latter
shortwave. At the surface, this translates to the return of surface
high-pressure for the weekend, but increasing PoP is expected late
Sunday afternoon with the approach of the trough. This system
appears likely to bring another round of wintry mix, as critical
thickness contours, forecast soundings, and ensemble probabilities
suggest the CWA could experience the full spectrum of winter
precipitation types through the conclusion of the forecast period.

The overall period will be punctuated by intervals of surface high
pressure interspersed with episodes of rain and wintry mix.
Temperatures are forecast to remain slightly below average
throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

A mixture of IFR and MVFR was reported at issuance with upslope
flow between a departing area of low pressure and high pressure
gradually building in from the central Conus. Spotty light
precipitation likely a mixture of snow, drizzle, and perhaps
spotty freezing drizzle lingers south of the TAF sites. That
precipitation should end over the first 2 to 5 hours of the
period, but low level moisture will linger for much of the period
and if and or when any clearing does take place, fog with some IFR
reductions may develop. In addition, as the night progresses,
some stratus build down fog with IFR or lower vis is also
possible for KJKL, KSJS, KSME, and KLOZ. Otherwise, mainly a
mixture of MVFR and IFR ceilings are anticipated areawide through
about 09Z, before high pressure building in leads to some
scattering of low clouds from that point through the end of the
period.

Winds will average northwest at 5 to 10KT to begin the period an
then become light and variable after 23Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP