014
FXUS63 KJKL 010819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
319 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy weather event is on track for tonight and Tuesday, with
  a good potential for wintery precipitation, especially north of
  the Mountain Parkway.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active towards the weekend with additional
  chances of precipitation.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1140 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1000 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

02Z sfc analysis shows chilly high pressure in control of the
weather over eastern Kentucky. This is working to settle the CAA
on northwest of 5 to 10 mph and attempting to clear the skies
though high clouds are holding on strong in the northern parts of
the area. Currently, temperatures vary from the upper 20a west to
the lower and middle 30s in the east. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
generally in the low to mid 20s. Have updated the forecast mainly
to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 205 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

Cold front exits east of the area by this evening, with drier
conditions developing within zonal flow aloft. Models do suggest a
surge of low-level moisture moving south as ridging builds into the
area overnight, and this may push a stratus deck into the area.
However, these clouds are progged to dissipate and move quickly
north shortly after sunrise Monday.

High clouds gradually increases through the day Monday as a
disturbance moves east toward the area. Surface cyclogenesis will
occur along the northern Gulf Coast, with an inverted surface trough
building north along the western side of Appalachians. Additionally,
a strong southwesterly mid-level jet stream to the west and north
will allow for warm air to build northeast into eastern Kentucky,
with overrunning precipitation developing from southwest to
northeast through the evening. Precipitation continues through the
overnight as the surface cyclone moves across the Deep South, with
colder air beginning to advect into the region as the cyclone turns
up the East Coast Tuesday.

Initially, as precipitation overspreads the area rain will be the
primary p-type, but low-level critical thicknesses will support a
wintry mix of precipitation types as the evening progresses from
roughly the Interstate 64 corridor north. Toward dawn Monday colder
air will start to advect from the west and northwest into the
region, allowing for a changeover to snow from northwest to
southeast as precipitation ends.

Probability of exceedance values for greater than 1 inch snow
accumulation continue to remain around 35 to 55 percent for areas
from Interstate 64 north in the JKL forecast area, with values
decreasing quickly to the south of Interstate 64. As rain changes to
snow during the morning from northwest to southeast, a quick dusting
to less than one-half inch of snow, mostly accumulating on grass and
elevated surfaces, will be possible, with little to no impacts
expected.

Drier and colder air moves into the region late Tuesday afternoon
into the early evening, but with cold advection light snow showers
gradually diminishing along the high terrain of southeastern
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM EST MON DEC 1 2025

Tuesday evening opens with cloudy conditions which are expected to
slowly improving through the night as surface high pressure builds
into the area for Wednesday. Lows Tuesday night bottom out in the
lower 20s, with upper 20s across far Eastern Kentucky, such as Pike
and Floyd counties.

High pressure keeps Eastern Kentucky dry Wednesday and Thursday,
with temperatures rising into the upper 30s to low 40s each day.
Increasing clouds are expected through Wednesday night, but not
before valley locations decouple and drop into the low to mid 20s.
Ridge-tops may stay elevated in the upper 20s to low 30s. Clouds
increase from nearby systems both north and south of the area,
although dry conditions are still expected through Thursday.

The next system with potential to cause active weather for the area
stems from a short wave trough in the Gulf States. While this is
going on a northern stream of energy transiting southeastern Canada
is also taking place. A baroclinic zone will develop from the lower
Mississippi Valley through the Tennessee Valley.

With the time of year, strength and timing of storms deeply matters
in regard to precip-type. At current, deeper moisture and warmth
will be slung toward eastern Kentucky Friday into Saturday, with
precipitation chances remaining around the 60-70% range. Most will
fall as rain, with the exception of the early morning on Friday,
where enough cold air might be in place for light snow. Another low
end precip chance remains for later in the weekend, Sunday, with
another passing cold front. Precip chances for that storm remains in
the 20-35% range. With uncertainty increasing beyond Thursday,
ensemble temperature spread increases, and the plausible range of
temperatures expands to a 10 degree range Friday and beyond,
although the median temperature is generally in the low to mid 40s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2025

VFR conditions are noted for the start of the 06Z aviation cycle
and should hold well into the night. However, a secondary cold
front may bring another round of MVFR CIGs pre-dawn into early
Monday, with the highest probabilities of this occurring at KSYM
and KSJS. By midday these will clear up and attention turns to the
next burgeoning system from the southwest that will push in after
00Z with lowering CIGs and VIS in rain south and mixed pcpn
north. Northwest to west winds will continue at less than 10 kts
through the night - turning east then southeast during the day.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-060-104-106.


&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF