369
FXUS63 KJKL 071825
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
225 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area today and tonight, followed by cooler
  weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall today through
  tonight, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain
  possible if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.

- Cooler and dry conditions are expected from Wednesday afternoon
  through the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 210 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

Steady rainfall continues for locations near and north of the
Mountain Parkway early this afternoon; activity has been more
intermittent further south. An Urban and Small Stream Flood
Advisory is in effect through 645 PM over the Bluegrass where the
heaviest rainfall has occurred, though rates/amounts have been low
enough to preclude flash flooding concerns, so far. The strongest
forcing is currently over forecast area and will gradually shift
to the northeast through early evening. Locations north of the
Mountain Parkway remain under the most concern for potential
flooding due to the long-duration moderate (to briefly heavy)
steady rainfall. We will continue to monitor.

UPDATE Issued at 1037 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

At 1030 AM, heavier stratiform rain with embedded convection was
slowly transiting southern OH/IN and northern KY, mainly north
and northeast of a weak ~1013 mb surface low passing just south of
Henderson, KY. Regional radar imagery shows the precipitation
focused in a zone of isentropic upglide on the nose of an ~35 kt
850 hPa jet that is feeding ~2 inch PWAT air into the Commonwealth
where it then ascends into the right entrance region of an ~80 kt
300 hPa jet streak centered north of Dayton, OH. The RAP13 favors
a gradual uptick in the strength of the upper level forcing
through the afternoon as this system presses east, but overall
impacts should be offset by increasing propagation speed. With
unseasonably high PWATs coming into play as well as some very
weak, skinny MUCAPE, rainfall processes are likely to be
efficient. Spatially, the strongest and most persistent lifting is
generally modeled north of the Mountain Parkway this afternoon
and evening. Existing abnormally dry conditions and the lack of
antecedent rainfall are significant mitigating factors for
flooding concerns in this area. Additionally, the MUCAPE profiles
may be too skinny for maximizing the moist air mass`s full
potential. With that being said, there is potential for training,
and in those locations that receive multiple hours of sustained
moderate to briefly heavy rainfall, lower-end hydro concerns could
develop, especially along smaller streams by later this afternoon
and evening. South of the Mountain Parkway, the potential for any
minor hydro issues decreases with southward extent.

UPDATE Issued at 725 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
along with the placement of the measurable rain showers early this
morning. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and
web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

08Z sfc analysis shows a wave of low pressure riding northeast
along a cold front pressing into northern Kentucky. This has
pumped higher moisture into the state with generally light showers
strafing parts of northeast Kentucky. Under plenty of clouds,
temperatures are fairly uniform across the area - in the mid to
upper 60s, for most. Meanwhile, amid light southeasterly winds,
dewpoints are running in the low to mid 60s. There has also been
some areas of fog accompanying the light rain in the I-64
corridor.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are in pretty
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict deep toughing swinging south through the
Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley today and tonight. This
will push decent height falls through Kentucky - particularly
tonight - along with a mid-level impulse pressing past the JKL CWA
on Wednesday morning. Any trailing energy then stays suppressed
to the south and west later in the day while the core of the
trough departs to the northeast. A passing 3h jet streak will
accompany the trough, as well, when it moves through Ohio later
today and tonight adding some enhancement to the lift. The model
spread is rather small concerning these key features supporting
using the NBM as the starting point of the grids with minimal
adjustments needed - mainly just to include the latest PoP
guidance from the CAMs consensus through Wednesday afternoon.

Sensible weather features a cold front passing through eastern
Kentucky by tonight bringing a cooler and drier air mass to
the state by the end of the short term forecast period. This
boundary will activate well above normal PW air for rounds of
showers and potential thunderstorms today into this evening.
Instability will be a limiting factor with thickening clouds
across the area today thanks to deep moisture in place. The
models have come into pretty good agreement on the heaviest rains
and training staying along or north of the I-64 corridor - with a
rather narrow swath of 1-3 inches - showing up in the guidance.
This area will need to be watched for potential training and
localized excessive rainfall. For the most part, this rain will
be beneficial for the entire area as we head into fire weather
season and the leaves start to pile up in the forests. Cooler
temperatures will also be a noticeable trait of this transition
with highs only in the low 70s today and stuck in the 60s on
Wednesday as low clouds linger. The low clouds and diminishing
showers tonight will make for one last sesasonably mild night of
this stretch. The bulk of the heavy rain threat occurs through the
day, today, with just leftover showers in the wake of the front
around in the southeast this evening. Will continue to highlight
the limited potential for isolated flooding in the HWO, on social
media, and via a partner email.

The changes to the NBM starting point were primarily focused on
adding in the higher resolution details from the CAMs for the
PoPs, thunder chances, and timing. Temperatures were kept fairly
uniform through Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 225 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

The period begins Thursday morning with a small yet vigorous
disturbance over the Tennessee Valley within overall northwesterly
flow aloft between a strong ridge over the center of the country and
a deep trough exiting New England. This disturbance digs south to
the Southeast coastline and helps to develop a strong surface low
along the coast through Monday. Meanwhile, another upper low digs
southeast through the Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic and combines
with the Southeast low to form a large complex low off the Mid-
Atlantic coastline. Models are then in good overall agreement in
upper ridging building northeastward from the south-central CONUS
into the Ohio Valley to end the period Monday into Monday night.

Models continue to trend lower with Friday morning`s low
temperatures, especially in the most sheltered northeastern valleys,
where some isolated patchy areas of frost cannot be completely be
ruled out as temperatures dip into the mid-30s. Otherwise, cool and
dry conditions are expected to end this week, this weekend, and
early next week, though temperatures will be slowly trending upwards
after bottoming out behind the cold front that moves across the area
tonight. Any precipitation with the coastal low will remain east of
the area through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE OCT 7 2025

Rain continues at TAF issuance across the northwestern half of the
CWA with more showery activity further southeast as low pressure
and a cold front push through the region. Ceilings will generally
deteriorate through remainder of this afternoon with worsening
visibility reductions associated with heavier rainfall. The worst
conditions -- near or below airport minimums -- are expected
tonight once the steadier rains move out, leaving behind low
stratus, drizzle, and fog. Slow improvement is expected from the
northwest on Wednesday. Winds will be southerly today at generally
less than 10 kts, though locally gustier winds to around 20 kts
are possible, primarily west of I-75 through early evening. Winds
will veer northerly overnight and continue at 5 to 12 kts on
Wednesday.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...GEERTSON