841
FXUS63 KJKL 011847
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
247 PM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain is expected to move into the region tonight and will
  continue into Sunday, especially across southwestern portions
  of the area.

- Below normal temperatures return for early next week with highs
  only reaching the 50s to low 60s and nights deep in the 30s.

- Warmer weather returns for the middle of next week, with dry and
  fair conditions.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1056 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Forecast has remained well on track throughout the morning hours.
Fog was being a little stubborn in wanting to dissipate this
morning out of the valleys, but within the last half hour it looks
like most of it is finally gone. Therefore, waited a bit after
10am to do the update so as to remove all fog wording from the new
ZFP/SAF forecast package. Otherwise, the only other update was to
make sure the near term temperatures/winds/etc were on track with
the current conditions. Loading in the latest observations,
overall resulted in some minor temperature changes, but hasn`t
impacted the overall forecast, as more SW winds should start
kicking in and quickly start rising the temperature into the 50s
and possibly low 60s during the afternoon. All updates have also
been finalized and sent to NDFD/web.

UPDATE Issued at 715 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Forecast is on track. Blended latest obs into hourly forecast, but
no significant changes were needed.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 440 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

Temperatures range in the low 30s to low 40s early this morning,
cold enough for areas of frost in the colder spots. High clouds
are drifting in while locally dense fog laces the river valleys.
The latest weather analysis shows a sub-980 mb low over the
Canadian Maritimes while surface high pressure ridging extends
from the Northern/Central Plains down into the Southeast US. A
weak low pressure wave is noted near Minneapolis-St. Paul. Aloft,
a 500 hPa trough remains east of the Rockies with a pronounced
embedded upper low over NE Iowa. A positively-tilted ridge extends
from the Desert Southwest northward into the Canadian Arctic.

The upper low will drop southeast to over the Southern
Appalachians through the period. The weak surface wave will follow
a similar trajectory, dropping across the Commonwealth tonight
and Sunday. This will result in increasing moisture, initially
aloft today, then at the lower levels tonight, and gradually
diminishing on Sunday. Resulting rainfall will be limited,
generally a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch, with the
heaviest amounts toward south-central Kentucky.

In sensible terms, look for morning fog and/or frost to yield to
mostly sunny skies, fading to increasing clouds during the
afternoon. It will be milder with highs in the upper 50s to lower
60s. Intermittent light rain can be expected tonight with milder
lows in the mid 40s. Leftover showers linger on Sunday as sunshine
increases. It will be a little cooler, with highs in the mid to
upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

The long term opens with a closed low over the southeast with
ridging building in from the west. Zonal flow will dominate the
extended through Thursday. This will result in dry and quiet
weather. Models do depict an upper level low passing through the
Great Lakes region on Wednesday, however, there should be little
to no impact on local weather in Eastern Kentucky.

A trough begins to deepen across the Central Plains on Friday,
leading to a frontal passage and rain. Active weather continues for
the weekend with a quick shortwave passage Saturday into Sunday
leading to the next chance of precipitation.

Temperatures will warm through Wednesday, with afternoon highs
generally in the 60s through next week. Wednesday and Friday may
reach upper 60s. For the evenings, clear skies and light winds will
favor strong ridge valley splits. As much is expected Monday and
Tuesday night, with valleys and colder hollows dipping into the low
30s. Along ridgetops, slightly stronger winds will favor
temperatures being in the lower 40s. Beyond night, lows will
generally be in the 40s, getting slightly warmer each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025

VFR conditions are currently on tap after fog dissipated in the
valleys this morning. Unfortunately this is not set to remain in
place, as an incoming low pressure center and weak cold front will
result in deteriorating conditions into the overnight. Clouds will
begin moving in from the west during the afternoon. These clouds
should generally remain just above VFR until tonight, at which
point rainfall will begin to accompany, possibly lowering VIS and
CIGs into MVFR. Can`t rule out some additional drops at times,
depending on if the rate of the rain picks up. Otherwise, most of
the rain should diminish and increase conditions heading into the
daytime Sunday. Winds should generally be under 10 kts through the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...JMW