959
FXUS63 KJKL 041943
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
243 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold, dry weather persists through the daytime hours today.

- Wintry precipitation, primarily snow is expected from late this
  evening into Friday morning.

- Some accumulation and travel impacts are becoming more probable
  possible for portions of southeast KY near and south of the Mtn
  Pkwy where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued.

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Confidence is increasing that impactful wintry precipitation,
primarily snow, will arrive late this evening into the overnight
hours and affect locations mainly along and south of the Mountain
Parkway. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for most of
that portion of the area from this evening into Friday morning.
There remains some uncertainty with accumulations, but the more
northern and western portions of advisory should experience snow
accumulations around 1 inch with 1 to 3 inches expected for
locations from Bell to Perry to Martin counties and locations
further south.

UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025

A cold front continues to drop south across the region with
extensive lingering low clouds with additional mid and high clouds
passing over. Sky cover grids were adjusted upward over the next
few hours with high temperatures lowered a bit as well to
correspond.

Focus continues to be on the quick moving system that will affect
portions of the regions late this evening into early on Friday.
Guidance appears to be trending toward a consensus of an uptick
in amounts across the south with a sharp cutoff in the north from
potentially an inch to only a dusting. This cutoff area appears to
be somewhere near or just south of the Mtn Parkway vicinity. Some
intermediate adjustments upward were made to pops in the south as
well as snow amounts. This event looks to potentially end a bit
quicker as well and keep things mostly snow. With the morning
commute on Friday likely to be impacted in some areas, headlines
will be considered for the more southern counties by the normal
afternoon packages issuance.

UPDATE Issued at 742 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Forecast is still fairly well on track this morning. Loaded in
the latest observations to make sure the near term forecast was
on track with the current conditions. This only resulted in minor
adjustments. Continuing to see a band of light snow pass just
north of the CWA. Can`t rule out that far northern Fleming and
Rowan County may see a few flurries into the next hour, but
otherwise there should be no impacts other than low clouds. A few
locations are reporting some fog and visibility restrictions,
despite NW flow and cloud cover, but given how low the CIGs are in
these locations, expect that it`s more a factor of the low clouds
and not actual fog. Either way, expect VIS to improve over the
next few hours, but for CIGS to remain low through much of the
day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 513 AM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Generally zonal flow is on tap for today as a strong upper level low
moves across southeast Canada and a shortwave to our west begins to
elongate, leaving much of the Commonwealth in a W to E pattern. At
the surface, a weak cold front is expected to pass through during
the first half of the day, giving way to high pressure moving in
from the west - tracking just north of the CWA. Other than a drop in
temperatures, and a boost in some mid-level moisture (resulting in
cloud cover throughout the day), this cold front should have very
little impact and overall weather should be calm and cool throughout
the day.

That is until late this afternoon, as a strong jet streak moves over
the area and brings ovc high clouds into the region under WSW flow.
This is the first precursor to what is to come. While the center of
the surface high pressure continues to shift eastward just north of
the state tonight (Thursday night), a low pressure system and
inverted trough will be brewing across the Deep South. Models are
starting to come into better agreement that this inverted trough and
resulting boundary will reach as far north as southeast Kentucky.
Uncertainty remains, however, about how quickly moisture/precip will
move into the region, how much moisture/precip there will be, and
how far north it will reach. The evening/overnight CAMs were also in
better agreement, showing pops entering as early as 1 to 2Z, and
overspreading the S and SE CWA just before 6Z, before beginning to
exit eastward and dissipating between 12 and 15Z. The problem is
that other large-scale models (carrying over into the NBM) show a
more extensive expanse into the CWA, reaching much farther north and
taking longer to exit during the day. That being said, while we
match up well with our neighbors, and the highest pops match up well
with the CAMs, there is still some room for change, which could have
some impacts when talking about the next topic...precipitation type.

There has been a lot of uncertainty in the topic of precipitation
type as well, and while the forecasts are becoming more consistent,
it`s still a very tricky situation. Our location on the northern
fringe of this system puts us in the cold sector. However, where
precipitation and clouds are in place, temperatures will be
substantially warmer than that of the northern CWA, which may see a
bit of clearing and remain dry. The latest forecast shows overnight
low temperatures ranging from 18 degrees (well below freezing) in
the north, to around 30 degrees in the far south (just below the
freezing mark). So as the precipitation starts, the entire CWA
should be below freezing at the surface. Then as we head into the
morning hours on Friday, and the system begins to exit, surface
winds will quickly turn more southerly...and so we will begin to
warm. This may have impacts. While snow and frozen ground was the
story overnight, this warming could transition snowfall to a mix of
rain and snow, or just rain. Rain on frozen ground - freezing rain.
Thankfully, even as we start to warm, most of the precipitation
should remain snow until the temperatures are several degrees above
freezing, at which point it will just be rain. But there could be
pockets of freezing rain within the rain/snow. And just a 1 to 2
degree change in temperatures during this time period could be a
drastic difference on if the roads are fine, and if there`s more
widespread freezing rain.

Again, the models seem to be more consistent in the last couple of
runs, with generally light snow, some pockets of freezing rain, and
then a transition to all rain as the system moves out in the
morning/early afternoon and temperatures rise into the upper 30s
(north) and low/mid 40s (south). This results in generally under an
inch of snow south of I-64 during the morning hours, and only
sporadic pockets of very light ice accumulation in the same region.
This forecast also lines up well with our neighboring offices.

Given the uncertainties and the limited impacts of the current
forecast, no headlines are being issued at this time. However, we
are continuing to highlight it in the HWO and Key Messages since it
could have some impacts with the Friday morning commute. Since this
is still a very fluid/dynamic set-up, will let the day shift take
one last look at the next set of model guidance to see if anything
has shifted/altered which may lead to headlines.

According to the ECWMF, the surface low driving this system should
quickly exit off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by 0Z Saturday, with a weak
area of high pressure taking hold of the state (dry conditions), and
strong WSW flow remaining in place aloft. Despite this, the latest
forecast keeps lingering low pops across eastern KY into Friday
evening/night. Expect these pops are an artifact of the NBM (pulling
in previous data and some higher moisture models) and will be
removed in future runs...as is further discussed in the extended
portion of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

The forecast period commences with surface high pressure building
across the region in the wake of Fridays departing synoptic system.
Aloft, persistent upper-level southwesterly flow is anticipated,
which will sustain relatively mild temperatures for Saturday.
However, a pronounced temperature gradient is forecast to establish
itself over the area. Concurrently on Saturday, a perturbation
translating within a stalled upper-level trough positioned over the
Hudson Bay will advect a predominantly dry cold front southeastward
through the Great Lakes and into the Ohio Valley. Deterministic
model runs indicate this mostly dry frontal boundary will traverse
the CWA; yet, due to the limited moisture available, PoP are
forecast to be negligible. Subsequently, an approaching shortwave
trough and an associated surface low-pressure feature moving out of
the Rockies will track eastward along this established zone of
baroclinicity.

This secondary, more moisture-rich system is expected to yield
higher precipitation probabilities, with a mixture of rain and snow
beginning early Sunday morning and enduring through late Monday
morning. The specific precipitation type will be critically
temperature-driven; daytime thermal profiles are generally
supportive of rain, whereas overnight temperatures will favor a
wintry mix or snow.Model confidence remains low concerning the
precise thermal profiles and the exact track of the low-pressure
center. Consequently, there is limited confidence in current
deterministic snowfall totals. Following the departure of this
system, surface high pressure is expected to rebuild across the area
for Tuesday. However, model trends suggest yet another system will
approach the region by the end of the forecast period, potentially
bringing another round of rain, wintry precipitation, and the risk
of stronger winds, particularly on Wednesday.

The entire period is characterized by multiple synoptic disturbances
traversing the area, introducing a variety of precipitation types
punctuated by transient interludes of high pressure. Temperatures
throughout the forecast are generally expected to remain below
average for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST THU DEC 4 2025

Low clouds and even some reduced visibilities at times are
occurring near and behind a cold front. A mixture of MVFR and VFR
was reported at issuance time in the more southern locations
while IFR and locally lower conditions were reported futher north.
A mixture of VFR and MVFR should occur from near KSME to KLOZ to
south of KPBX during the first 6 hours of the period with a
deterioration fro ceilings in most places to MVFR or IFR between
00Z and 06Z as mainly snow overspreads southern portions of the
area. Snow should continue spreading east through 09Z and and then
begin to taper off from the west thereafter. The snow may bring
IFR or lower reductions in visibilities at times as well.
Northern locations such as KSYM should not experience any
precipitation. A brief mix with freezing rain or rain may occur
before the precipitation tapers off late tonight and early
Friday. Reduced ceilings of MVFR north and IFR or lower south
should linger as the precipitation tapers by the 12Z to 18Z
timeframe. Winds will generally be light and variable throughout
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
Friday for KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-112-114-116.

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Friday for KYZ087-088-110-113-115-117>120.


&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP