916
FXUS63 KJKL 022312
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
612 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Clearing skies will set the stage for extensive fog development
  tonight, especially in the river valleys. Lows will fall into
  the lower 30s in the coldest valleys.

- Dry and fair weather is expected Monday through Thursday, with a
  warming trend bringing highs into the mid-60s and lower-70s by
  Wednesday.

- Rain chances return the forecast on Friday and persist into
  Friday evening. A rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out in this
  time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025

Interesting weather and forecast for today so far. A weakening
boundary is across portions of eastern Kentucky, along with
increased energy/lift due to a strong upper level low passing just
to our southwest. These are both resulting in continued cloud cover,
moisture, and some isolated to scattered showers - mainly across the
SW CWA. With freezing levels quite low, some of the stronger
isolated showers resulted in a couple lightning strikes and multiple
reports of pea sized hail - resulting in several SPS`s. Thankfully
these are limited in growth, pulsy, and hi-res models (which
actually did initialize these isolated storms) shows them
dissipating within the next hour or two.

As we continue through the afternoon and into the evening hours,
drier air should begin working in. The upper level low will continue
to push southeast, putting eastern KY on the CAA side, with dry and
much colder air settling in. Meanwhile, surface high pressure will
begin nosing in from the SW. The combination of light winds at the
surface and CAA will lead to a much cooler night. However, given the
moisture in place after the rain last night and today - it will be
very easy for temperatures to meet their cross over temperatures,
not only in the deeper valleys, but elsewhere across the CWA as
well. As such, kept with fog coverage for much of the area, thickest
in the deepest valleys. That being said, there is still a lot of
uncertainty when it comes to the fog. First of all, nearly all the
models are trying to put cloud cover across the CWA (and neighboring
CWA`s) overnight. Clouds usually hamper fog development - however am
a bit leery if this is true cloud cover or just the models trying to
represent impact of the fog across the area. Especially since even
the soundings show increasing dry air in the low, mid, and high
levels above the surface, with no evident cloud decks. Also, have no
doubt there will be fog and it will be impactful, but not sure how
widespread the dense fog will be. Based on the forecasted temps/dew
points, it wouldn`t support widespread fog - but if the forecast is
off by a degree or two, it could easily become widespread and dense.
With so much uncertainty, decided to hold off on any fog products
for the moment, but will pass on to the evening shift for closer
monitoring and any product issuance decisions.

After tonight, high pressure continues to take hold at the surface,
where it will remain in control into the extended portion of the
forecast. Skies should be sunny tomorrow (Monday) once the morning
fog lifts and clears out, with similar temperatures to today in the
upper 50s. Monday night will see even stronger subsidence compared
to tonight, as the surface low gets closer to the region and the
upper level system exits farther eastward. With CAA still in place,
this will result in even colder temperatures, especially in the
deeper valleys, where it wouldn`t be out of the realm to see some
locations drop below 30 degrees. It will also likely result in
another round of fog, especially in the sheltered and river valleys.
Expect it to be a bit less coverage compared to tonight, as we have
a day of drying- but still something to watch for potential
impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 610 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Progressive, quasi-zonal flow looks to set up aloft this week, with
the area`s sensible weather oscillating between the influence of low-
amplitude ridging/troughing as a result. When the period opens on
Tuesday morning, flattened mid/upper level ridging will be building
into the area. The associated surface high will slide eastward
throughout the day, allowing any lingering river valley fog to burn
off and skies to clear. Temperatures should accordingly warm into
the 60s on Tuesday afternoon before sheltered and shaded valley
temperatures quickly cool off in the late afternoon/evening. As the
night progresses, high-level clouds are expected to spread east in
the commonwealth, but MOS guidance still depicts staunch ridge-
valley splits on Tuesday night. Expect MinTs to bottom out in the
upper 30s in the hollows of Eastern Kentucky while ridgetops and
western portions of the area remain in the 40s.

On Wednesday, the commonwealth will be positioned between a clipper-
type low in the Great Lakes and the previous day`s surface high, now
over the Carolina. Surface winds will veer towards the southwest and
become gusty within the resultant warm air advection regime. As the
morning`s radiational inversion mixes out on Wednesday afternoon,
winds could gust up to 25mph, and valley locations could climb into
the 70s. The latest COOP MOS guidance suggests that some of the
deeper valley sites could climb above 75 degrees in this time frame,
but confidence was not high enough to deviate that significantly
from the baseline NBM MaxT guidance. Valley highs were raised a few
degrees into the lower 70s on Wednesday afternoon, but most of the
area is forecast to see highs in the upper 60s or closer to 70
degrees proper. Skies should remain mostly clear during the daytime,
but clouds could increase overnight as a frontal boundary moves
through the forecast area. The quality/depth of moisture return out
ahead of that boundary looks rather meager, and measurable
precipitation is not expected with this first system.

Temperatures look to cool off a little bit behind that boundary`s
passage on Thursday, with AM lows in the 40s and PM highs back in
the 60s. Another round of low-amplitude ridging will build into the
region in this time frame, as will a quick-passing surface high.
Expect one more day of dry and clear conditions before that high
shifts into the Mid-Atlantic states and another low pressure system
develops in the vicinity of the Great Lakes.

Thus, the area once again looks to be in a regime of southwesterly
return flow on Friday. The tight pressure gradient between the
aforementioned synoptic means that Friday`s winds could gust upwards
of 30 mph, but the SW flow on Friday is forecast to be more
vertically stacked than it was on Wednesday. Models resolve
relatively deeper parent troughing with this second low pressure
system. As said troughing digs into the Lower Ohio River Valley on
Friday morning, the flow in the bottom half of the atmospheric
column will collectively become southwesterly. This alignment favors
deeper moisture return and increasing rain chances ahead of the
system`s cold front. The related increase in cloud cover introduces
uncertainty into Friday`s temperature forecast, and there is a
noticed increase in model spread around this timeframe. For now,
stuck with the baseline NBM data of highs in the upper 60s/near 70,
but if pockets of clear skies can emerge in the afternoon, there may
be just enough diurnal warming to to squeeze out some gusty
thunderstorms ahead of the frontal passage. Thunder currently
appears most likely in southwestern portions of the forecast area on
Friday evening, but as higher-resolution models begin to resolve
this system and a clearer consensus on FROPA timing emerges, this
could change. Interests with outdoor plans on Friday and Friday
night should continue to monitor the convective aspects of this
forecast, but confidence is high that there will be wet sensible
weather in this time frame.

Looking ahead to next weekend, there is a signal for deeper longwave
troughing to emerge over much of the Eastern CONUS. However, model
spread substantially increases on Saturday, with greater than 10
degrees difference in the 25th and 75th percentiles of the NBM and 3
to 4 standard deviations of spread in the European Ensemble MOS. As
shortwave disturbances and their associated surface systems navigate
through the mean troughing aloft into early next week, the pattern
remains active. Persistent NW flow aloft and a secondary surface
cold frontal passage at the very end of the long term forecast
period period favor the advection of a cool, continental polar
airmass into the region to start the week of November 10th. This
could yield the season`s coldest temperature readings thus far, but
the significant uncertainty in the currently-avaialble ensemble data
precludes the mention of sensible weather specifics at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025

Varying conditions (generally MVFR to VFR) were occurring across
the area at TAF issuance time. Rain has moved out of most TAF
sites, but a few showers can`t be ruled out mainly at KSME and
KLOZ this afternoon, therefore kept tempo wording in for a few
more hours. Otherwise, the overall trend should be for skies to
begin clearing through the afternoon. The forecast gets a bit
tricky, however, as we head into the overnight hours. With much of
the region still wet from the passing rain overnight/this
morning, along with the clear/calm skies and stronger subsidence
moving in- it`s very likely that most places will see fog,
regardless of elevation. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty, however, on the exact impacts and just how far the
VIS will drop overnight. Expect the worst impacts at KSME, KLOZ,
and KJKL where the heaviest rain fell - but will need to continue
to monitor this into the overnight for any updates. As it stands,
it`s entirely possible that low end IFR to LIFR conditions will
occur. Fog will diminish during the morning hours Monday, giving
way to mostly sunny skies and light westerly winds under 10 kts
through 18Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...JMW