412
FXUS63 KJKL 202131
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
431 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rounds of rain showers continue through Saturday morning as a
  series of fronts move through the region.

- Locally heavy rainfall and a few thunderstorms are possible on
  Friday and Friday night.

- Active weather continues into next week, with a strong cold
  front expected to cross the Commonwealth by mid-week.

- Below normal temperatures are likely for the end of November and
  the start of December, although the precipitation forecast
  remains uncertain that far out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 425 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Late this afternoon an upper level low was centered south of James
Bay with an associated shortwave trough across Lake Huron to west of
Lake Michigan while a shortwave was progressing into the Lower OH
Valley and TN Valley. That shortwave was in advance of an upper
level low in NM and an associated trough axis into the Rio Grande
Valley vicinity and a broader trough in the western Conus.
Another upper level low was nearing the CA and OR coast at this
time. At the surface, a frontal zone extended from South Carolina
across the Southern Appalachians into the TN Valley and then
meanders to a sfc low developing in western parts of TX. Meanwhile
another cold front extended into the western Great Lakes to
Central Plains from a sfc low centered south of Hudson Bay.
Isentropic lift across the boundary to the south of eastern KY has
resulted into a return of mid and high clouds after low clouds
finally dissipated. An area of rain/showers was falling from this
across much of southern to eastern KY at this time. There had been
some lighting at times earlier in the day in TN, but recent
lighting activity has been south of KY.

This evening and tonight, the upper low in Canada should meander
south of Hudson Bay and near the James Bay vicinity while the
trialing shortwave trough axis moves into the eastern Great Lakes
to Upper OH Valley. A couple of shortwave in southwest flow may
also cross the Commonwealth tonight downstream of the initial
upper low that track into the eastern CO/western KS vicinity while
the associated shortwave axis reaches south across eastern OK to
TX. As this occurs, the southerly to southwest flow aloft will
continue to transport moisture into the OH Valley region as the
sfc low in the Plains tracks into KS and the warm front to the
east lifts north into the Commonwealth and may reach as far north
as the Mtn Parkway vicinity to Tug Fork by dawn on Friday. Rounds
of showers are anticipated this evening and tonight near and
ahead of the warm front. Temperatures should not fall that far
from current readings for lows tonight.

Friday and Friday night, the upper level low should trek to the
mid MS Valley vicinity Friday to Friday evening and then further
weaken to an open wave as it moves to the OH Valley region on
Friday night. An additional shortwave or two should cross the area
with the general consensus of guidance for one of those crossing
eastern KY near midday on Friday. In between this shortwave and
the main shortwave trough to near later Friday and Friday night a
relative min in rain chances is anticipated Friday afternoon,
particularly in the more southern locations. As the sfc low
approaches the mid MS and Lower OH Valley Friday to Friday evening
the warm front is expected to lift at least to near the OH River
initially. The combination of the northern stream boundary more
or less merging with that frontal zone and the initial frontal
zone should return south back into eastern KY during Friday
night. Another uptick in coverage of convection is expected as
the evening into overnight hours progress ahead of the front. Some
thunder will be possible on Friday, though chances may diminish
for a time in the afternoon to early evening in the more southern
locations. With PW forecast to reach the 1.1 to 1.4 inch range or
near or north of the 90th percentile and the frontal zone should
be nearly parallel to the upper flow. Thus, although any showers
and storms should move rather quickly, a few locations might
receive repeated rounds of heavier downpours and locally heavy
rain. WPC has a Marginal Risk for Friday into Friday night for
this threat.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 233 AM EST THU NOV 20 2025

The period begins Friday night with the area within the warm
sector of an approaching mid-level disturbance and cold front.
Thus, high PoPs are expected until cold frontal passage Saturday
morning, with decreasing PoPs favoring the typical cold advection
upslope areas across southeastern Kentucky Saturday afternoon.
Saturday night through the first half of Monday, the NBM has
begun trending cooler as models and their ensemble systems have
come into better agreement that this period will see relatively
dry conditions with decreased cloud cover and light winds.

The next system arrives late Monday into Tuesday with fairly high
confidence, though there are discrepancies in the depiction of
the evolution of the mid-level pattern between the models,
especially heading into the middle of next week and the busiest
part of the holiday travel period. Thus, PoPs have been raised by
around 20 percent on average compared to previous package from
Monday night through Tuesday night, with considerable uncertainty
remaining for Wednesday into Wednesday night based on if the upper
trough and surface front completely clear the area to the east or
if they linger back far enough west over the Ohio Valley for
another round of light precipitation before clearing the area.

A much cooler, if not downright cold, pattern appears likely
behind the expected cold front passage at the very end of the
long-term period or just beyond beginning next Thursday, so these
trends will continue to be monitored over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025

Low clouds mixed either to higher cloud bases or mixed out
entirely north to near the Mtn Pkwy at issuance time. Thus, much
of the southern locations were either VFR or MVFR with IFR
lingering near KSYM and I-64 corridor. Mid and high clouds ahead
of the next low pressure system are already streaming toward and
into the region, but VFR should hold to begin the TAF period in
the south and for northern sections such as KSYM a gradual
improvement to MVFR and then VFR is anticipated. However,
deteriorating conditions with thickening and lowering clouds and
showers will spread into the area from the southwest and west to
the east and northeast with MVFR likely to return to KEKQ by 00Z
and then over the remainder of the area through 08Z. Showers along
with isolated storms and deteriorating conditions are forecast to
arrive again from the west by the end of the period. Mainly MVFR
or IFR should remain once it develops to end the period, although
some breaks may occur near the TN border behind a warm front late
in the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...JP