226
FXUS63 KJKL 111218 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 AM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The coldest airmass so far this season will gradually move east
  of eastern KY today.

- A few slick or icy spots on secondary and untreated roads,
  bridges, and overpasses will linger until a couple of hours
  after sunrise when temperatures will rise above freezing.

- Temperatures moderate back to near normal levels by Wednesday,
  then rise to above normal levels to end of the week and
  continuing over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 530 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

Early this morning, an upper level low was centered over the
upstate NY vicinity with a trough axis extending south through
the mid Atlantic states to east of the southeast US Coast to FL.
Meanwhile an upper level ridge was centered over the eastern
Pacific into northwestern Mexico area and extended north into
parts of the western Conus and also east to the Southern Plains.
In between these two systems, a northwest to northerly flow
extended from the Plains east to the MS Valley and Great Lakes as
well as OH Valley to Appalachians including the Commonwealth. A
couple of shortwaves of note were moving through this flow, on
over the Dakotas and another over northwestern Ontario. Meanwhile
at the surface, high pressure was centered over the Gulf coast
states and extended north to the TN and OH Valleys to Lake
Michigan vicinity. Further northwest, With rising mid level
heights and the lower level flow becoming more anticyclonic as
well as a trend of warm air advection aloft, nearly all low clouds
have cleared eastern KY expect for a few patches near the KY/VA
border and near the Tug Fork. Temperatures have dropped into the
low to mid 20s for most locations, while higher elevation
locations above 2500 feet and some of the typical cold spots were
in the teens.

Today and tonight, a general trend of height rises at 500 mb are
expected to continue through the day. However, the shortwave now
over the Dakotas vicinity should reach the OH Valley later today
and cross the Lower to middle OH Valley early this evening.
Meanwhile, a sfc system ahead of the more norther shortwave in
Ontario will track north of the Great Lakes to northeastern
sections of Ontario through tonight in advance of the shortwave
currently over northwest Ontario moves to the Central to eastern
Great Lakes and another shortwave behind it moves into Ontario.
The warm front associated with this system should cross the
Commonwealth this evening into the overnight hours while the
trailing cold front works across the western to Central Great
Lakes to mid MS Valley to Central Plains and nears the Lower OH
Valley late tonight. The passing warm front and the above
mentioned shortwave is expected to lead to nothing more than than
increase in mid and high clouds later today through this evening
and some wind gusts up to around 20 to 25 mph later today and this
evening. With the airmass moderating, temperatures will moderate
generally into the low to mid 40s for most locations, or 15 to 20
degree below normal. Some deeper valley locations in the east and
southeast may manage to decouple at least at times tonight and
reach the upper 20s with mid 30s for ridges/more open terrain
locations. However, lows tonight will trend milder as well.

For Wednesday, the more northern shortwave initially over Ontario
should track into the Northeast/New England with the sfc low
reaching Quebec while the trailing cold front crosses the
Commonwealth. A few gusts to around 20 or 25 are possible as the
front works through the region, though, otherwise, temperatures
will moderate further to within 5 degrees of normal for highs. The
cold front will be moisture starved and not many clouds are
anticipated with it.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 545 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

The long term period is expected to begin with an upper level
ridge extending from Mexico into the Rockies and portions of the
Plains while an upper level trough over eastern Canada extends
into the Northeast to eastern seaboard/eastern Conus. Further
west, meanwhile, an upper level trough is expected to be nearing
the west coast of the Conus.

For Wednesday night to Thursday night, northwest flow aloft is
expected to begin the period across the Commonwealth and west to
northwest flow aloft is expected through the period as the upper
level axis moves off the eastern seaboard and the axis of upper
level ridging moves to the western Gulf and toward the
Plains/Central Conus. Over eastern KY, 500 mb heights should
change little, however, sfc high pressure should build east to the
TN and OH valley on Thursday and settled over the Appalachians
for Thursday night. A shortwave moving within the northwest flow
aloft may near the Lower OH valley late in the period and the
boundary that will have crossed the Commonwealth on Wednesday
begins to return north/northeast as a warm front and near the
Lower OH valley. This may result in cloud cover at least at times
with a possible increase in mid level clouds Thursday night. With
high pressure building into and across the area, the pattern
would support at least a moderate ridge/valley temperature split
and some upper 20s or around 30 degrees lows for valleys both
Wednesday and Thursday night and mid to upper 30s for
ridgetops/more open terrain locations. Temperatures remain within
5 degrees of normal for highs on Thursday.

Friday to Saturday night, a shortwave is expected to cross the
area as the period begins on Friday before the upper level ridge
axis moves to near the MS Valley to western Great Lakes and then
to the Central Great Lakes to mid MS Valley through Friday night.
The ridge axis is expected to continue shifting east Saturday and
eventually east of eastern KY by Saturday night. Per the
consensus of guidance a shortwave trough should approach the Lower
OH Valley late Saturday to Saturday night. During this time, the
warm front should lift north into and across the Commonwealth
Friday into the day on Saturday and then to the eastern Great
Lakes to mid Atlantic through Saturday night as sfc low pressure
tracks to the Great Lakes vicinity and the trialing cold front
nears the mid MS and Lower OH Valley as early as late Saturday
night. Temperatures are expected to continue to moderate through
this period while weak passing shortwaves/ disturbances as well as
the warm front lifting into and across eastern KY leads to small
chances for rain showers at times. At this point, these chances
appear to be in the weak passing shortwave on Friday and then
continuing into Friday night as the warm front nears. A bit of a
lull in chances for rain showers is currently forecast on Saturday
as the upper ridge axis passes, but then as heights begin to fall
and the cold front approaches and another shortwave nears as well
by late Saturday night, chances for rain showers increase again.

Sunday to Monday, the consensus of guidance brings a shortwave
across the Great lakes and Lower OH valley for Sunday and the
associated cold front should near but should begin to stall and
become stationary by Sunday night over or near eastern KY. A
shortwave ridge may lead to a lull in rain shower chances again
late Sunday night into Monday per some of the guidance, but with
the boundary over or near the region, unsettled weather may return
as early as late Monday ahead of another shortwave trough and
upper low and an associated wave of low pressure moving from the
Central to eastern Conus along the boundary. Ahead of the cold
front, temperatures should be above normal for highs on Sunday and
then cool to near normal for Monday with the boundary possibly
stalled over or near the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2025

Departing pressure will lead to VFR conditions through at least
00Z though an increase in mid and high clouds are anticipated as
a disturbance passes between roughly 18Z and 03Z. Winds will
initially be light and variable, but should increase to 5 to 15KT
between south and west after 14Z. Winds should remain south to
southwest at generally 5 to 10KT after from 00Z to the end of the
period as a warm front passes the area. Any clouds associated with
it should be mid and high level with VFR continuing. Winds aloft
will increase from the southwest to west near or shortly after
sunset, resulting in a LLWS threat for most locations between 00Z
and the end of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP