243
FXUS63 KJKL 261740 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1240 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A strong cold front moves across the area and brings gusty
  winds through this afternoon.

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Monday and
  beyond. Some wintry precipitation is possible during the Monday
  night to Tuesday timeframe.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1225 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
updating the latest effects of the front passing through. These
minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along
with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

UPDATE Issued at 1020 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

14Z sfc analysis shows a sharp, but mainly dry, cold front
working east through eastern Kentucky late this morning. This
front is bringing a strong switch in the winds to the west
northwest and gusts up to 35 mph as it passes, along with falling
temperatures in its wake. Currently, temperatures vary from the
mid 50s in the far southeast, well ahead of the boundary, to the
low 40s behind it - in the northwest. Meanwhile, dewpoints range
from the mid and upper 30s northwest in the air mass behind the
front to the mid and upper 40s well out ahead of it. Have updated
the forecast mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the
T/Td/Sky grids but also to fine tune the PoPs per the current
radar returns and near term CAMs consensus. These minor
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 423 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

Surface analysis as of 0730Z indicates the initial cold front has
already progressed eastward through the region. The central pressure
minimum of this system is currently situated over Lake Ontario. A
second, more significant surface low pressure center is located over
eastern Wisconsin, with a trailing cold front extending
southwestward. This second frontal boundary is currently advancing
into the Commonwealth, stretching back toward Colorado. Locally, a
line of precipitation echoes departing the eastern CWA, while a
subsequent line is moving into the CWA from the west. In the wake of
the initial frontal passage, west-to-northwesterly winds are
commencing to exhibit gustiness. Within the next several hours, a
Special Weather Statement (SPS) is anticipated for these sub-Wind
Advisory strength winds.

A vertically stacked, closed low-level circulation, currently
centered over Wisconsin, is forecast to track rapidly toward the
Great Lakes. This eastward progression through the morning hours
will drive the associated surface cold front quickly across the
Commonwealth, clearing the entire CWA by late this afternoon.
Following the frontal exit, surface high pressure will begin to
build in from the west. However, the upper-level flow pattern will
remain northwesterly, facilitating an advection of Arctic air.
Concurrently with this cold air intrusion, momentum transfer from
upper-level winds will promote increased surface wind speeds. As
previously noted, while these winds are not anticipated to meet Wind
Advisory criteria, an SPS will be issued to cover these gusts
through the afternoon.

Post-frontal surface high pressure is forecast to persist across the
region through the remainder of the short-term forecast, resulting
in a dry Wednesday afternoon and evening, and a cold, dry
Thanksgiving holiday. Maximum temperatures today will occur during
the morning hours, followed by a steady decline throughout the rest
of the day. Overnight minimum temperatures are expected to fall into
the upper 20s. Very limited diurnal temperature recovery is
anticipated for Thursday, with highs climbing only into the upper
30s north of the Parkway and warming marginally into the lower 40s
south of the Parkway.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 423 AM EST WED NOV 26 2025

The long-term forecast period will commence with surface high
pressure dominating the weather pattern from Friday morning through
late Saturday night. Temperatures are forecast to begin near the mid
30s on Friday, then climb into the low to upper 40s range on
Saturday. However, the surface ridge axis will progress eastward
throughout Saturday, being replaced by an approaching surface low
pressure system.

Beginning Saturday morning, the upper-level trough is projected to
shift from the Rockies into the Plains. At the surface, a low
pressure center will develop and eject from the lee of the Rockies
into the Plains, arriving in the Great Lakes region by Sunday
morning. Locally, an increase in the PoP is expected beginning
Saturday night and continuing through the overnight hours. A rain-
snow mixture is possible where surface temperatures are sufficiently
cold to support frozen precipitation, but as temperatures warm, a
transition back to all rain is anticipated to occur and persist
through Sunday into Monday.

A low degree of confidence characterizes the forecast for the end of
the extended period. Current model guidance indicates the passage of
multiple shortwave disturbances across the area, creating the
potential for a wintry mix extending into next week. Minor
variations in the track of these disturbances could significantly
alter the primary precipitation type. The current forecast package
anticipates a transient rain-snow mix each morning before
temperatures rise above the freezing mark.

The overall extended forecast pattern will start with stabilizing
surface high pressure before transitioning to a more active weather
regime from the end of the weekend into early next week.
Temperatures will begin cold but are forecast to quickly moderate
for Saturday. Temperatures will then be subject to greater
variability from Sunday through the end of the period, generally
supporting a wintry mix at times from Sunday onward through the
forecast window.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025

MVFR and low end VFR conditions are prevailing across the TAF
sites in the wake of a strong cold front. Sustained west-
northwesterly winds around 15 knots and gusts to 25 knots will be
the rule through the rest of the afternoon and into the first
part of the evening. These winds will diminish by late night
before picking up again during the day on Thursday. Lingering
MVFR CIGs will improve to VFR in the next couple of hours with the
lower clouds holding on longest in northern parts of the area
where some CIGs will flirt with MVFR conditions through the
evening. Those CIGS will then break up later tonight with SKC
conditions then holding through the rest of the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF