271
FXUS63 KJKL 271138
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
638 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is still considerable uncertainty in the forecast for the
  early to middle part of next week. Some wintry precipitation is
  possible during the Monday night through Tuesday night period.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 443 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

As of the 0730Z surface analysis, an occluding surface low-pressure
system is tracking eastward from the Great Lakes region into
southern Ontario. Extending equatorward from the low center, a cold
front is positioned along the Atlantic Seaboard, oriented roughly
north-south. Following the frontal passage, a dominant surface high-
pressure system has become firmly established across a vast portion
of the central CONUS. This 1032 mb high is centered over eastern
Nebraska, yet its expansive influence is evident across the CONUS
east of the Rocky Mountains. Locally, this anticyclonic influence is
producing dry weather over eastern Kentucky. Apart from mid- and
high-level clouds associated with the occluded low, current
conditions are tranquil and cold.

The remainder of the day and the duration of the short-term forecast
will be governed by the persistence of the surface high pressure,
ensuring continued dry weather. However, the upper-level flow will
remain northwesterly, favoring persistent CAA throughout the period.
Consequently, todays maximum temperatures are projected to reach the
upper 30s across northern areas, warming into the lower 40s to the
south. Overnight minimum temperatures will descend into the upper
teens to mid 20s. An advancing upper-level shortwave trough is
expected to usher in slightly colder air for Friday, resulting in
high temperatures a couple of degrees cooler, while conditions
remain dry.

The short-term forecast period will therefore be
characterized by surface high pressure and below-average
temperatures due to upper-level northwesterly flow and associated
CAA for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 443 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

The long-term forecast period commences with the continued dominance
of surface high pressure. To the west, an upper-level trough is
forecast to move rapidly from the Rocky Mountains across the Central
Plains and eject into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. This
evolution will induce a warm front to lift northward through the
Commonwealth, increasing the likelihood of precipitation beginning
late Saturday night. There is potential for a rain-snow mix ahead of
the warm front Saturday night, as surface temperatures may be
marginally cold enough to support frozen precipitation. However,
differences exist among model forecasts (e.g., soundings and
critical thickness contours) with some suggesting all rain (NAM and
ECMWF) and others a rain-snow mix (GFS). A slight lean towards a
rain-snow mix for a few hours is included during the initial warm
frontal passage. Once the warmer air mass is established, rain
showers are likely through the day Saturday into Sunday until the
passage of an associated cold front occurs overnight Sunday into
early Monday. Backside snow showers will be possible Monday morning
as strong CAA behind the cold front ushers significantly colder air
back into the region.

A weak surface ridge is forecast for Monday, but models indicate it
will quickly dissipate as another low-pressure system approaches
from the south. A second warm front is expected to lift through the
area, similar to Saturday nights setup, leading to the potential for
another wintry mix on Tuesday. Confidence is low regarding the
precise track of the surface low, critical temperatures, and
critical thickness values, making the Tuesday forecast challenging.
Nonetheless, the overall model trend suggests progressively colder
solutions, necessitating close monitoring of this system. Following
the departure of Tuesdays system, surface high pressure is forecast
to rebuild into the area for Wednesday, but another system is
projected to impact the region by Thursday.

The extended forecast period is highlighted by the passage of
multiple shortwave systems that will bring periods of winter
weather, commencing Saturday night and again on Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 638 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025

VFR conditions are prevailing across all TAF sites with this
issuance and VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF window.
Winds are light and variable presently but will increase this
afternoon as a pressure gradient exists between the surface high
and a surface low to the northeast. Winds are forecast to diminish
toward 00Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...VORST