582
FXUS63 KJKL 282226
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
526 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold and dry airmass has settled into the region.

- A light round of precip, mainly rain, is expected Saturday night
  into Sunday.

- A more significant precip event may come Monday night and
  Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery precip.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 526 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

There are no changes to the forecast. Temperatures will fall
rapidly into the 20s over the next few hours as winds decouple.
The latest hourly observations were included for the
initialization of the hourly temperature forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 204 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

Overall guidance is in decent agreement for the short term period.
High pressure will continue to settle across the Ohio Valley this
evening. This as an upper level wave pushes eastward. This will
provide a solid platform for radiational cooling under clear skies
and calm winds. Lows are set to drop into the teens in the valleys
and around 20 on the ridges. This will be closer to the 10th
percentile of the NBM.

The previously mentioned high pressure will quickly move east, as a
leeside low pressure quickly develops tonight and ejects into the
Midwest early in the day. This feature will eventually work itself
northeast toward the Great Lakes, with attendant cold front
approaching the Ohio Valley. Overall given the southeast flow at the
surface most will remain dry through the day. However, clouds will
increase with time mainly in the mid and upper levels through the
day. Highs will top out in the mid to upper 40s for most locations.

By Saturday evening, most of the lift will initially come from a
upper level jet streak that will move into the Midwest and mid-level
height falls from the shortwave. The initial precipitation will fall
as rain and/or snow before switching to all rain as column warms
under increasing southwest flow. Overall no impacts are expected
given marginal surface temperatures and light precipitation overall
(most locations less than a tenth of inch of liquid). However,
some light slushy accumulation can`t be complete ruled out along
and north if I-64. This will all melt as we warm and
precipitation changes to all rain.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 147 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

Rain to begin the period Sunday morning winds down and exits east
with a cold frontal passage during the daytime hours Sunday,
shutting down our short-lived warm-up and bringing a return of
dry conditions with surface high pressure. However, the dry
weather looks to be brief.

Another upper level wave will drop southeast over the western CONUS
during the weekend and then head east. It will prompt surface low
development which is expected to track across the Deep South Monday
night and then turn up the East Coast on Tuesday. The relatively
large system will throw moisture northward over our cooler air,
likely bringing another round of precip. With a southerly track, we
will remain in colder air and will have a higher threat of wintery
precip, especially in our northern counties. At this point it looks
like a nuisance type system, but at that time range, changes to the
outlook will probably occur.

Once it passes, dry weather looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday,
though 15 to 25 PoPs return by Thursday night with another potential
system, though overall model agreement on location, timing, and
strength of this potential wave, or waves, to end next week is
quite poor.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM EST FRI NOV 28 2025

Most sites are seeing VFR skies under surface high pressure.
However, we have had some passing cumulus clouds that are sitting
at around 3 kt. This might cause some brief lowering to MVFR cigs
at times but predominantly VFR. West winds of 5-10 knots will be
story this afternoon before diminishing this evening to less than
5 knots.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CMC
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC/HAL
AVIATION...DJ