122
FXUS63 KJKL 300145 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
845 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A round of light precipitation, mainly rain, is moving through
  eastern Kentucky tonight into Sunday.

- A more significant precip event is expected Monday night and
  Tuesday, with a little bit better potential for wintery
  precipitation, especially north of the Mountain Parkway.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 845 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

01Z sfc analysis shows the warm front of a sfc low to the
northwest of the area moving into eastern Kentucky this evening.
This is bringing moisture and lowering mid level clouds into a
very dry lower atmosphere environment. Some radar returns appear
to be sufficient to reach the ground as they are crossing west to
east through the JKL CWA, but for the most part they are
evaporating before reaching the ground. Given the dry air in place
wetbulbing may allow for a brief period of sleet or snow before
any substantive pcpn transitions to just rain. Currently,
temperatures are running in the mid 40s for the Cumberland Valley
with mid 30s noted in the eastern valleys. Meanwhile, amid
southerly winds of 5 to 10 mph, dewpoints are generally in the low
to mid 20s west and teens in the east. Have updated the forecast
mainly to add in the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
but also to fine tune the PoPs per radar and CAMs guidance through
the night. Did also tweak the precipitation type for the
transition over to rain after the initial wetbulbing to sleet or
snow. These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers along with a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 204 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

Guidance remains in reasonable agreement in the short term period.
The latest surface analysis shows high pressure off toward the
Virginia coast and low pressure across the Plains deepening as it
pushes east into the Midwest. There is good agreement that this
feature pushes into the Great Lakes later tonight. Meanwhile, a jet
streak will push into the Plains and Midwest this evening bring a
little more upper level lift. This coupled with subtle height falls
due to associated the mid-level shortwave will aid in some lift
across the area. A 850mb low level jet will crank up in response to
this system. The focus of the low level jet will be more to the
north across the northern portions of the Ohio Valley where the apex
of this jet will be located but will help to moisten up the column
to allow for some light precipitation tonight. Overall this will
come in the form of rain, but a brief period of rain/snow mix will
be possible for a short time this evening. This idea was captured
well by the NBM and HREF weather type probabilities. Overall given
the warmer afternoon highs, marginal temperatures, and light QPF
this will not be much of an issue. That said, overnight lows will be
in the mid to upper 30s in most locations.

The attendant cold front will cross eastern Kentucky Sunday morning
into early Sunday afternoon. This could have some rain showers
associated with it and maybe even some gustier winds in the 15-20
mph range. The biggest change will be the failing temperatures
through the day, with most experiencing the warmest temperatures on
Sunday morning. The temperatures will then fall into the mid to
upper 30s for most locations, with a few falling into the lower 30s
by Sunday afternoon. Sunday night we will see a mix of clouds, with
some forecast sounding guidance showing the potential for some post
frontal stratus to push into the area. This will lead to most
locations staying in the low to mid 20s and not any big splits from
ridges to valleys. If this trend continues sky cover may need to be
increased to better match this potential.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

The period begins Monday morning with dry weather as surface high
pressure retreats to the north and east during the day. Attention
then quickly turns to the next system approaching from the west.
Surface cyclogenesis will occur across the Deep South and generally
track just inland across the Southeast CONUS before moving up the
East Coast. With a southerly track, we will remain in colder air and
will have a higher threat of wintery precip, especially in our
northern counties. At this point it looks like a nuisance type
system, but there will likely be continued fluctuations to the
outlook. The highest probability (50 to 60 percent chance) of
significant snow accumulations will be mainly along and north of
Interstate 64 for the Monday night-Tuesday time period, according to
the operational NBM valid early afternoon Saturday, with values
decreasing to 20 percent roughly along a Mount Vernon-Jackson-
Paintsville line. South of Interstate 64, the best chance of seeing
snow seems to be during the morning and early afternoon Tuesday as
the column cools from the top down with the arrival of the upper
trough and before precipitation ends from the west.

Once it passes, dry weather looks to occur Wednesday and Thursday,
with another system arriving to end the week Friday into Friday
night. Though models as of now show this system more disorganized
than the early week system, most models do show overrunning precip
as far north as KY, but with an atmosphere probably warm enough for
rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 725 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2025

We start the period VFR under the influence of southeast flow and
surface high pressure off to the east. The remainder of the
evening we will continue to see increasing and lowering clouds -
probably reaching the MVFR level or lower towards dawn, Sunday. A
compact weather system will move across the Ohio Valley bringing
mainly light rain into the region tonight into Sunday morning.
Overall, not expecting too much in the way of lower visibilities
from this given the light nature, though some high-end MVFR
restrictions are not out of the question. Conditions should be
gradually improving west to east late in the period. Expect a
period of LLWS from the south at up to 45 kts across the forecast
area tonight given the lower wind speeds at the surface. The
winds will mostly be 10 knots or less overnight and becoming more
southwesterly by Sunday morning. There will likely be a bump up
in gustiness late morning into early afternoon Sunday, with the
arrival of the front, to the 15 to 20 knot range.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...DJ/GREIF