214
FXUS63 KJKL 060935
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
435 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The pattern remains active through the end of the forecast
  period, although confidence remains low in each passing system`s
  precipitation type and accumulation forecast.

- Temperatures will average below normal through at least the next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Compared to yesterday, a slightly milder air mass is in place
over eastern Kentucky amidst weak southwesterly flow, with
temperatures largely in the lower and middle 30s. However,
satellite and observations show that low clouds persist nearly
area-wide. The latest analysis shows high pressure, centered over
the Lower Mississippi Valley, nosing northeastward into the
Commonwealth. To the north, a low pressure system is passing north
of James Bay with a trailing cold front arcing south and west
across Lake Superior and across the Upper Midwest and Northern
Plains. Looking aloft, broadly cyclonic 500 hPa flow dominates the
CONUS east of the Rockies. Multiple disturbances are embedded
within this flow, including one diving across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. Additional pockets of energy are noted further upstream
over the Northwest CONUS and western Canada.

The first disturbance will cross eastern Kentucky later this
morning and early afternoon. This will help to reinforce cloud
cover for a time, but limited overall moisture should preclude
anything more than a very isolated stray sprinkle or flurry.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will stall northwest of
the Ohio River as the surface high pressure lifts northeast across
the Southern Appalachians by late this evening. That high departs
on Sunday as renewed energy dropping through the broad troughing
initiates renewed cyclogenesis along the stalled boundary. The
new surface low is modeled to skim the southern end of the Great
Lakes on Sunday, leaving eastern Kentucky in the system`s warm
sector until a trailing cold front drops in from the northwest.
This will lead to the return of mentionable PoPs Sunday evening.

In sensible weather terms, look for clouds to persist for much of
the area today, though some temporary thinning is possible this
afternoon, especially south of the Mountain Parkway. It should be
substantially milder than recent days, with highs in the upper 30s
north to mid-40s south. For tonight, clouds remain thickest in
the north and thinnest in the south. Expect lows in the 25F to
30F range, generally coldest in the sheltered southern and
southeastern valleys where skies remain clearest. Looking ahead to
Sunday, clouds thicken again area-wide through the day with a
rising chance of rain from the northwest after mid-afternoon. It
will be milder with highs ranging in the mid-40s north to lower
50s in southern valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 400 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

The period is expected to begin with an upper level low in the
Hudson Bay vicinity and a trough extending south across the Great
Lakes to the MS and OH Valleys to eastern TX while an upper level
ridge is expected to extend from the eastern Pacific into
portions of the western Conus. A shortwave associated with that
system is expected to be moving into the Northern Great Lakes with
another in mid MS Valley vicinity a that point. At the surface,
ahead of these shortwaves, a sfc low is expected to be over
southern MI with another sfc wave in the mid MS Valley vicinity
along a frontal zone that should extend across Southern New
England and the mid Atlantic states to southern MI to the mid MS
Valley to the Southern Plains.

The more northern shortwave crossing the Great Lakes and the
second nearing the Lower OH Valley should progress east and
northeast to begin the period into Quebec and the Northeast to Mid
Atlantic and TN and OH Valleys through Sunday and Sunday night.
This should result in the 500 mb trough axis shifting into the
eastern Conus and nearing eastern KY by late Sunday night. As this
occurs additional shortwaves should move into the trough in
northwest flow aloft this weekend. West to northwest flow should
remain through much of next week as the ridging remains from the
Pacific into western portions of the area with troughing from
Canada into Central and eastern portions of the Conus. Additional
shortwaves should move through this troughing through the period.
The first frontal zone should move into eastern KY later Sunday
and southeast of the area Sunday evening into Sunday night.
Moisture should gradually increase ahead of it on Sunday.

By the time the atmosphere saturates enough for precipitation to
fall on Sunday, late in the morning to early afternoon, just plain
rain is anticipated. Colder air will arrive behind the cold front
later Sunday evening through Sunday night, and any remaining
precipitation should change from rain showers to snow showers.
12Z LREF probabilities for more than a dusting/tenth of an inch of
snow are in the 30 to 60 percent range for the 24 hour period
ending at 7 PM EST on Monday, while the 12Z LREF probabilities for
more than a half of an inch of snowfall during that timeframe are
currently in the 10 to 30 percent range. Thus with these grand
ensemble probabilities and 12Z operational runs of the GFS and in
particular the 06Z and 12Z ECMWF also suggesting a chance for
some light accumulations for some locations, opted to add this
potential to the HWO.

A brief window of sfc and shortwave upper ridging follows later
Monday into early Tuesday before the next shortwave and associated
system in northwest flow aloft move to the Great Lakes to OH
Valley region for midweek. As this system approaches, the
pressure gradient and winds aloft will both increase, as early as
Tuesday afternoon, and especially later Tuesday night and
Wednesday. The 12Z BUFKIT momentum transfer suggests that wind
gusts in excess of 30 mph and nearing the 40 mph wind advisory
threshold could be reached. Mean wind gusts midday Wednesday into
the afternoon in EPS based guidance are mainly 30 mph or stronger
in central to eastern KY. This would be the initial forecast
concern with mid to late week systems across eastern KY.
Otherwise, precipitation chances should again return at midweek
for Wednesday into Wednesday night, initially in the form of rain.
Then as colder air moves in Wednesday night to early Thursday,
lingering rain showers could mix with or change to snow showers. A
third cold front and shot of colder air should arrive from later
Thursday night into next Friday as yet another system nears in
west to northwest flow aloft. This front should bring additional
chances for showers and pending the thermal profile these could
fall as rain or snow showers or a mix thereof.

Highs should average near 5 degrees below normal, in the 40s, on
Sunday ahead of the cold front, with highs in the 30s or about 15
degrees below normal forecast for Monday. Lows should be
seasonably cold for Monday night with high pressure dominating,
mainly in the upper teens to mid 30s. Temperatures should again
have a moderating trend from Tuesday into Wednesday with highs
nearing normal for this time of year on Wednesday. Otherwise,
temperatures return to below normal levels to end the work week
behind the second cold front in the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2025

Strong low-level inversion is weakening under increased high
clouds, which is allowing for cigs to rise and fog to diminish in
coverage. Light southwest winds are also mixing down to the
surface as warm advection begins to increase ahead of the next
weak system for Saturday. Thus, the forecast has trended more
optimistic through the remainder of the overnight into Saturday
morning, with IFR cigs becoming MVFR and then gradually becoming
VFR toward the afternoon Saturday. However, low clouds will begin
to return from the northwest by mid to late afternoon behind a
weak frontal passage. Light southwest winds of generally 3 to 7
kts through this morning will become light and variable during the
afternoon through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...CMC