350
FXUS63 KJKL 061411 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1011 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mainly dry and warm conditions will prevail again today.

- A cold front will bring an area of showers and perhaps some
  thunderstorms to the area Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed
  by cooler weather to finish the week.

- There is a slight risk of excessive rainfall Tue through Tue
  night, with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches of rain possible
  if storms move repeatedly over the same areas.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Some sprinkles or light showers have reached the ground near I-64
this morning and likely some sprinkles are occurring in parts of
the Cumberland Plateau upstream of the Lake Cumberland Region.
With this in min, updated to include some sprinkles in the north
and west along with some slight chance pops nearer to or west of
I-75 through midday to account for radar trends. Remaining hourly
grids were freshened up based on recent observation trends.

UPDATE Issued at 756 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Clouds are a bit more extensive than was expected early this
morning, and this has been blended into the forecast for today.
There are also some light returns on radar showing up near the
northwest edge of the forecast area (and westward) due to shallow
instability based around 850 mb. It`s questionable if this is
reaching the ground, and the forecast has not been updated to
include any precip for today, but it will need to be monitored.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Early this morning, high pressure aloft is centered near the VA/NC
coast, while surface high pressure is centered offshore. On the
south side of the high, Atlantic and gulf moisture is advecting
west and northwest into the southeast CONUS (still mainly to our
south). Meanwhile, an upper trough extends from south central
Canada southwestward into the western CONUS. The trough will
advance eastward through Monday, especially its northern extent.
This will flatten the upper high/ridging, suppressing it
southward, while the surface high slips eastward. The advancing
trough will also support a surface cold front which will arrive in
Kentucky from the northwest on Tuesday. Flow between the
departing surface high and the cold front will advect the moisture
northward and northeastward. The front and upper trough will act
on this to produce an area of showers which will move in from the
northwest late tonight and Tuesday. Precipitable water is
forecast to reach 1.5-2" ahead of the front. Should convection
repeatedly fire over the same areas, efficient rain production
could bring locally heavy amounts. A lack of rainfall recently
will give a bit of cushion before excessive rain becomes a
problem.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 547 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Showers/thunderstorms should be ongoing as we move into Tuesday
night, as a cold front and upper trough move in from the
northwest. The front will exit to our southeast late tuesday night
and early Wednesday while the upper trough slips to our east. This
will leave us with west northwest flow aloft and surface high
pressure passing east over the Great Lakes on Wednesday, sending
us noticeably cooler and drier air.

Multiple shortwave troughs are expected to move southeast in the
flow aloft late in the week and consolidate into a closed upper
low next weekend. The ECMWF and GFS have both shifted the low`s
placement northeastward since yesterday, and now show it in the
vicinity of VA and the Carolinas by late Sunday. Along with this,
there is development of a coastal surface low. The new scenario
favors precip being confined to areas to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT MON OCT 6 2025

Localized valley fog may bring sub-VFR conditions to a few areas
early this morning, especially in southeast KY, but it`s not
expected to affect TAF sites and will dissipate shortly.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to last into tonight.
Overnight, an area of showers associated with an approaching cold
front will probably begin to arrive from the northwest and could
bring sub-VFR conditions (most likely only MVFR) to the western
edge of the forecast area by dawn. This would be most likely to
affect KSYM and KSME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...HAL