185
FXUS63 KJKL 021212
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
712 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A messy winter weather event is ongoing early this morning,
  with rain and mixed precipitation changing to snow from
  northwest to southeast.

- Drier and colder weather will be in place for the middle of the
  week. Temperatures will average between 5 and 10 degrees colder
  than normal.

- The pattern will turn active again towards the weekend with
  additional chances of precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 534 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Winter weather event is ongoing. An upper level trough extends
from the Great Lakes to the souther plains early this morning,
with an embedded shortwave over the lower Ohio Valley, while
surface low pressure near the FL panhandle is transitioning to
development near the Carolinas coast. Overrunning moisture from
the south along with lift from the trough/shortwave is responsible
for the ongoing precipitation. Brightbanding is observed on radar
early this morning over the northern portion of the forecast area
indicating the change from rain to snow. The switch will continue
to make its way southeast as colder air arrives, especially aloft.
However, outside of our northern/northwestern counties the period
of any snow should be brief enough to not be a concern. Areas
around I-64 northward will likely see an inch or two, with amounts
tapering off to the southeast. The most significant precipitation
is expected to taper off from northwest to southeast this morning.
As deeper moisture aloft is lost, ice production in the clouds may
also be lost, which could result in a change to drizzle (or
freezing drizzle where temps remain below freezing). Even drizzle
will eventually taper off as moisture becomes more and more
shallow, with the last of it tapering off in southeast KY in the
afternoon or early evening.

High pressure will build in from the west tonight, but cold air
advection and upslope flow will persist as the high approaches
and will make it difficult for clouds to break up. Tentatively
have decreasing clouds forecast tonight into Wednesday, but
confidence in the timing is not very high.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 521 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

At the onset of the long-term period, a 590-dm sub-tropical high
resides over the Gulf, centered over Cuba. A sub-500-dm low
remains over the Hudson Bay area, with a trailing cold front down
through Southeast Canada, The Great Lakes, and back through the
Ohio Valley. All-while a ridge of high pressure dominates the
Pacific, from Hawaii all the way up to the Yukon region. Models
and ensembles are in good agreement through Friday.

Wednesday night, increasing clouds can be expected across Eastern
Kentucky as the cold front from the Hudson Bay low traverses the
Ohio Valley with a slight chance of snow showers just north of
Fleming County. Temperatures overnight are expected to fall into the
low to mid 20s in hollows and sheltered valleys, while ridgetops
remain in the upper 20s to near 30. While this cold front passes to
the north, moisture gets pulled around the Gulf high into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Frontogenesis is expected later
Thursday. Current models put a slug of rain across the Southeast
U.S. while Eastern Kentucky remains rather unscathed. There is a
period Thursday night where a slight chance of snow showers exists
with no major impacts expected.

Friday and beyond, model and ensemble spread increases considerably
with disagreement in timing and placement of systems. The ECMWF
lags the showers across the Southeast U.S. until Friday, and also
has showers further north across Eastern Kentucky. As a result
POPs fluctuate between 15-35% Friday through Monday next week. Of
those days, Saturday looks to have the best chance of being dry,
at least at current.

Below-normal temperatures look to continue through the week, with
highs generally in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with lows in the 20s to
low 30s. Thursday night looks to be the coldest of the long-term
with lows ranging from the mid-teens across the north, to mid 20s
across the south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 712 AM EST TUE DEC 2 2025

Conditions were mostly IFR or worse at TAF issuance, with just a
bit of MVFR. Precipitation was ongoing most places, but the back
edge was starting to make its way in from the west. It was still
in the form of rain in many places in far southeast KY, but the
transition to snow had made its way southeastward roughly to a
line from Monticello to Paintsville.

The change to snow will continue southeastward through the state
this morning, but the back edge of significant precip will be
moving faster, so that the last places to see a changeover will
generally see the shortest period of snow. Once significant
precipitation tapers off today, there still could be some drizzle,
freezing drizzle, or very light snow which lingers this afternoon,
especially near the VA border. Mainly IFR or worse conditions are
forecast to linger this morning, but an improvement to MVFR for
most places is expected around mid day and early this afternoon,
with MVFR (due to ceilings) then probably lasting through tonight.
Clouds may begin to break up tonight, but confidence is not high
enough to forecast improvement beyond MVFR in this aviation cycle.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-104-106-108.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...HAL