796
FXUS63 KJKL 061259
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
759 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow accumulations are possible behind a cold frontal
  passage on Sunday Night/Monday Morning.

- Southwesterly winds will become gusty on Tuesday and Wednesday
  ahead of a stronger mid-week system.

- The pattern remains active next week, although confidence
  remains low in each passing system`s precipitation type forecast.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

A break in the low clouds has developed over the center of the CWA
around sunrise, but another disturbance is approaching from the
northwest with additional cloud cover. The cloudier skies will
generally be more predominant today with northward extent while
sunshine will be more prevalent near the VA/KY and TN/KY borders.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Compared to yesterday, a slightly milder air mass is in place
over eastern Kentucky amidst weak southwesterly flow, with
temperatures largely in the lower and middle 30s. However,
satellite and observations show that low clouds persist nearly
area-wide. The latest analysis shows high pressure, centered over
the Lower Mississippi Valley, nosing northeastward into the
Commonwealth. To the north, a low pressure system is passing north
of James Bay with a trailing cold front arcing south and west
across Lake Superior and across the Upper Midwest and Northern
Plains. Looking aloft, broadly cyclonic 500 hPa flow dominates the
CONUS east of the Rockies. Multiple disturbances are embedded
within this flow, including one diving across the Mid-Mississippi
Valley. Additional pockets of energy are noted further upstream
over the Northwest CONUS and western Canada.

The first disturbance will cross eastern Kentucky later this
morning and early afternoon. This will help to reinforce cloud
cover for a time, but limited overall moisture should preclude
anything more than a very isolated stray sprinkle or flurry.
Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will stall northwest of
the Ohio River as the surface high pressure lifts northeast across
the Southern Appalachians by late this evening. That high departs
on Sunday as renewed energy dropping through the broad troughing
initiates renewed cyclogenesis along the stalled boundary. The
new surface low is modeled to skim the southern end of the Great
Lakes on Sunday, leaving eastern Kentucky in the system`s warm
sector until a trailing cold front drops in from the northwest.
This will lead to the return of mentionable PoPs Sunday evening.

In sensible weather terms, look for clouds to persist for much of
the area today, though some temporary thinning is possible this
afternoon, especially south of the Mountain Parkway. It should be
substantially milder than recent days, with highs in the upper 30s
north to mid-40s south. For tonight, clouds remain thickest in
the north and thinnest in the south. Expect lows in the 25F to
30F range, generally coldest in the sheltered southern and
southeastern valleys where skies remain clearest. Looking ahead to
Sunday, clouds thicken again area-wide through the day with a
rising chance of rain from the northwest after mid-afternoon. It
will be milder with highs ranging in the mid-40s north to lower
50s in southern valleys.

.LONG TERM...(After midnight Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 609 AM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

The long term forecast period opens with the passage of a cold front
on Sunday night, and the resultant cold air advection regime will
allow ongoing precipitation to mix with and then change over to all
snow by Monday morning. The arrival of this boundary`s parent
midlevel shortwave disturbance has trended slower in recent forecast
guidance, leading to prolonged precipitation chances in far Eastern
Kentucky. Precipitation is generally expected to taper off from NW
to SE during the daytime hours on Monday, but will linger into the
afternoon for locations south of I-64 and east of I-75. The
probability of measurable snowfall in the JKL CWA has accordingly
increased, with the LREF Grand Ensemble now depicting a 50-70%
chance of seeing at least 0.1 inches of storm total snowfall across
much of the forecast area on Monday evening. The LREF probabilties
continue to drop off quickly with increasing accumulation
thresholds, but some higher-resolution pieces of guidance suggest
that locally higher totals in higher-elevation locations closer the
Virginia state line cannot be ruled out. For example, the 00z ECMWF
AIFS Ensemble Probabilities for >= 1 inch of snow jumped to 20-30%
in places east of the KY-15 corridor, and the higher-resolution
00z/06z deterministic NAM runs include terrain enhanced totals in
out southeasternmost counties. As this early-week system enters the
temporal range of other pieces of higher resolution forecast
guidance, trends in these probabilities will need to be monitored.
The mention of light snow accumulations on Sunday night/Monday
morning was accordingly retained in this morning`s Hazardous Weather
Outlook, but antecedent warmth during the daytime hours on Sunday
and a quick-building shortwave ridge will likely serve as limiting
factors.

Models collectively resolve midlevel height rises on Monday night
into Tuesday as a ridge briefly builds into the Ohio River Valley.
At this surface, this translates to a quick-passing high pressure
system, and a clearing trend looks likely overnight. This could
lead to ridge-valley temperature splits on Tuesday morning. While
temperatures are forecast to be well below freezing area-wide,
shaded/sheltered valleys could drop into the teens while ridgetops
stay in the mid-20s. Locally colder thermometer readings are also
possible wherever there is snow on the ground, but once the sun
rises, temperatures are forecast to quickly moderate above freezing.
The surface high will propagate east of the area by midday and set
up a potent warm air advection regime. Breezy southwesterly winds
and relatively sunnier skies will allow for widespread afternoon
highs in the 40s, and clouds should begin to spread back into the
forecast area on Tuesday night. These clouds, coupled with the
persistence of southwesterly low level flow, will limit the amount
of diurnal cooling on Tuesday night. Thus, most of the area is
poised to remain above freezing ahead of the next system`s arrival
on Wednesday.

As that mid-week system approaches the area, a tightening pressure
gradient will allow the persistent southwesterly surface flow to
intensify. Confidence is growing that Wednesday will be a rather
windy day. Models depict strengthening flow aloft in this same time
frame, and BUFKIT momentum transfer soundings continue to depict
wind gusts in the range of 30-35 knots at the sample sites across
our forecast area. The latest EPS ensemble data suggests that there
is a 25-40% chance of exceeding wind advisory criteria (40 mph) on
Wednesday. Winds of this magnitude are likely to blow around any
outdoor holiday decorations, and these nuisance-type impacts are
poised to be the primary concern with this mid-week system. WAA will
allow temperatures to climb into the upper 40s/lower 50s by
Wednesday afternoon, meaning that rain would be this system`s
favored precipitation type.

After the onset of this rain on Wednesday afternoon, forecast
confidence decreases. There is a strong signal for active weather to
continue through the end of the forecast period, as a train of
clipper-type systems is likely to approach the Greater Ohio River
Valley late next week. The track, timing, and evolution of each
individual disturbance in this procession remains highly uncertain,
which makes it difficult to pinpoint specific details regarding
temperature profiles, precipitation types, and potential
accumulations. The baseline NBM guidance used to populate the long
term grids averages out into liquid precipitation types during the
day and frozen precipitation during the cooler nights, but the
actual p-type forecast will be dependent upon the speed and depth of
each passing system`s parent trough. It is plausible that a quick-
moving system on the heels of its predecessor`s cold air advection
could lead to more widespread winter weather, but it is also
plausible for a brief period of WAA to set up between systems.
Better-defined long wave troughing looks to eventually set up over
the Eastern CONUS just beyond the end of the period, so a general
downward trend in temperatures is expected towards the very end of
the period. Nevertheless, interests are encouraged not to read too
far into deterministic winter precipitation accumulation data at
this moment in time, as it is likely to be quite bouncy.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
ISSUED AT 717 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025

Patchy low ceilings (MVFR or worse) with some breaks lingered at
TAF issuance. These clouds will persist through much of the
morning at the terminals as a weak disturbance passes. Ceilings
should then gradually break up more substantially this afternoon
and evening, yielding a period of VFR conditions as high pressure
brushes to our south. Winds will become southwest at 4 to 9 knots
by late this morning/early afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...GEERTSON