484
FXUS63 KJKL 142116
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
416 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- It will be breezy and mild ahead of a cold front on Saturday.

- Scattered to numerous showers are forecast with cold frontal
  passage on Saturday night.

- Cooler and much drier air arrives for Sunday and Monday.

- Multiple weather systems could bring rain at times next week
  from Monday night on.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 416 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

Our surface pressure gradient will tighten tonight as a cold front
moves southeast over the Midwest and impinges on high pressure
over the southeast CONUS. Increasing flow and higher dew points
being carried into the area, as well as increasing clouds, will
make for a tricky low temp forecast. Southeastern valleys will be
the coldest locations, with ridges and open terrain in our
western counties be the mildest. Exactly where readings end up is
less certain than sometimes.

As mixing occurs on Saturday, more wind will be realized at the
surface. A fair amount of clouds expected would limited deeper
mixing, which would also restrain what would also be an even
breezier day. At present, southwesterly gusts generally in the
20s (mph) are forecast. The winds will also continue to bring mild
air into the area. Even with clouds, temperature should be at
least well into the 60s. If there were to be enough sun, readings
would be a bit higher.

The cold front is forecast to pass late Saturday night. Forecast
soundings suggest rain showers with convection capped in the mid
levels. Coverage is in question, with MOS data showing mainly
chance POP across the area, but gridded NBM still running much
higher. Have compromised and used mainly likely and high end
chance POPs. Average amounts are expected to be around a tenth of
an inch or less.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 416 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

An updated long term discussion will be sent shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025

VFR conditions prevailed at TAF issuance. There were some light
showers skirting the northern edge of the forecast area, but
very little or no precip should make it further south. No
restrictions are expected as we head into the evening and the
showers depart. Low end VFR ceilings are forecast to develop from
north to south overnight and on Saturday morning. Won`t rule out
some incursions into MVFR territory with this, but the threat
isn`t great enough to include in any TAFs.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...MARCUS
AVIATION...HAL