435
FXUS63 KJKL 050518
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
118 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and generally above normal temperatures persist into early
  next week.

- Through the weekend, valley fog is likely to develop each
  night.

- Chances for rain return for mainly Monday night through
  Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

Forecast is still well on track this afternoon. Freshened up the
near term grids with the latest observations, which only resulted
in minor changes, most notably cooling the northeast slightly.
Satellite is also showing a CU field that was just to our NW also
now dissipating, making way for clear skies overnight. All
updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. No updates to
the forecast package products are needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

This Afternoon through Tonight:

Short-term guidance remains consistent, with high pressure
dominating to the east and extending into the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys. Aloft, a 500mb ridge will remain in control. Expect some
high, thin cirrus clouds, especially in the southeast, and a few
pancake cumulus clouds through the afternoon. These clouds will
clear tonight as daytime heating diminishes, leading to ridge-to-
valley temperature splits, with lower 50s are expected in valleys
and mid- to upper 50s on ridges. Valley fog is possible again
overnight, though short-term guidance and forecast sounding data
show a weaker signal than last night. The COOP MOS guidance and
the 5th percentile of the NBM continue to capture these lower
valley temperatures well.

Sunday:

Surface high pressure will shift east off the coast of Virginia,
while upper-level ridging continues to influence the weather
across the Ohio Valley. Similar to today, guidance and forecast
soundings indicate the potential for shallow cumulus clouds to
form in the afternoon, sandwiched between dry air at the surface
and aloft. It will be another warm day with mostly sunny skies and
light surface winds. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s
for most locations. Based on ensemble and deterministic guidance,
some areas may be slightly warmer (a degree or two) than this
afternoon.

Sunday Night:

The afternoon cumulus clouds will dissipate, but expect an
increase in high-level and perhaps mid-level clouds through the
night. Overnight lows will again show ridge/valley splits, with
temperatures in the lower to mid-50s in valleys and the upper 50s
to lower 60s on ridges. This temperature difference will be less
pronounced than on previous nights which is supported by the
guidance, as a possible return flow will help develop more cloud
cover. Valley fog remains possible.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT SAT OCT 4 2025

The period starts Monday morning with fairly impressive Q-G warm
advection and moisture return occurring just south and west of the
forecast area as an upper disturbance organized over the north-
central through southwestern CONUS. The NBM depicts slight chance
PoPs in the greater Lake Cumberland region during this time, which
looks a little aggressive but will let it be for now.

PoPs more steadily increase from west to east across the area Monday
night into Tuesday, before decreasing through the day Wednesday,
as strong warm advection ushers plentiful moisture (PWs over 1.5")
into the region along with lowered stability. With an active jet
stream and stronger upper disturbance, showers and thunderstorms
look to be fairly widespread during this time period. NBM QPF has
trended steadily upwards over the last 24 hours, with the NBM
Deterministic high temperatures also trending several degrees
lower, which typically indicates increasing confidence in a more
impactful QPF event. Highest QPF as of right now looks to be near
or along the Interstate 64 corridor, with lowest amounts toward
the Middlesboro area.

The cold front will pass south and southeast across the area
sometime during the day Wednesday, with Q-G cold advection ushering
in cooler conditions at least for Wednesday night. However, models
insist in an unsettled pattern persisting through the remainder of
the long-term period through Friday night, though models and the
global ensemble members are all over the place with their depiction
of how that occurs, even though the ensemble means depict a general
low-amplitude troughy pattern across the eastern CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 118 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2025

Fog will bring localized VLIFR conditions in valley locations
through early Sunday morning, especially in southeast kentucky. It
is not likely to affect TAF sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions and
light winds are forecast through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...CMC
AVIATION...HAL