365
FXUS63 KJKL 231907
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
207 PM EST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather returns to the area through Monday afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between Monday night and Wednesday morning, leading to
  widespread rain chances on Tuesday.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the
  beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 206 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

High pressure continues to build into the area, leading to partly
cloudy to mostly sunny conditions. There are some lingering clouds
across the Morehead area this afternoon but those are expected to
dissipate heading deeper into the afternoon. Temperatures at current
are largely in the upper 50s and low 60s across the Hal Rogers-KY 80
corridor, and a few degrees cooler north. Temperatures will
generally stay around current observations with light winds through
this evening. Fog is expected to develop again this evening, however
with the passage of a dry cold front this afternoon, and a drier
airmass moving in behind it, fog may not be as dense or widespread
as Saturday night-Sunday morning. Temperatures this evening bottom
our in the low 30s. Increasing clouds are expected to move into the
area as well from the northwest, as the next system begins to
approach the region.

Monday will remain dry through sunset, after which a series of fronts
will move into the area from the southwest, leading to increased
shower chances overnight Monday. With the area in the warm sector
under southeast flow, temperatures will be warm through the
afternoon, with many seeing low to mid 60s across the area.
Overnight lows cool into the upper 40s to near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 456 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the approach of a surface
low from the southwest. The upper-level trough from the short-term
period will eject into the Ohio Valley, advecting a warm front
through the area beginning late Monday night into Tuesday morning.
Showers associated with this frontal system are expected throughout
the day Tuesday. A few rumbles of thunder may be possible across the
CWA ahead of a quick-moving cold front. The severe weather threat
appears limited as forecast CAPE is marginal and vertical wind shear
is almost nonexistent.

The upper-level trough responsible for Tuesdays surface low will be
absorbed into the mean flow, but simultaneously, another stronger
trough is forecast to dive out of the northern Rockies into the
Upper Midwest. This second system is forecast to move through the
Great Lakes and drag another cold front through the area throughout
the day Wednesday before quickly exiting the area late Wednesday
night. Through the two frontal passages (Tuesdays and Wednesdays),
total rainfall accumulation will range from approximately 0.60
inches along and west of the I-75 corridor to 0.30 inches east of
the I-75 corridor.

Behind the exiting front on Wednesday night, surface high pressure
is forecast to build into the region and remain in place from
Thanksgiving through late Saturday night before another system is
progged to move in from the west.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a couple of mid-week
surface low-pressure systems, followed by high pressure building
into the region on Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be
pleasant and seasonal up until Thursday, when the cold front ushers
in a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving and Black
Friday. Behind the front, overnight low temperatures will bottom out
in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday before
beginning a warming trend for Sunday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2025

Surface high pressure continues to build over the area. All sites
have returned to VFR. Light and variable winds are expected for
the TAF window. However, fog is expected to develop again this
evening, likely causing a reduction in category to all TAF sites.
Fog may not be as dense or widespread as Sunday morning, but IFR
to MVFR conditions will result.

One limiting factor to watch for this evenings fog remains the
drier air moving in from the dry frontal passage earlier today. If
the surface dries out heading into this evening, fog would be
favored in the valley locations and may not effect the TAF sites
as much.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK