205
FXUS63 KJKL 221948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
248 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drier weather returns to the area through Monday afternoon.

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  between Monday night and Wednesday morning, leading to
  widespread rain chances on Tuesday.

- A colder, but drier, airmass will settle into the region for the
  beginning of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

At current, remnant showers are occurring across Floyd, and Pike
counties. A boundary is apparent looking at visible satellite
imagery located along a line extending from Liberty east to
Hazard, and Pikeville. A cold front continues to move across the
state confirmed by looking at temperature and humidity fields from
state Mesonets. Cloud cover is starting to thin out north of
Fleming county and surrounding sites north of the area. Sky
conditions should improve heading into the evening, with high
pressure building into the area behind the cold front.
Temperatures tonight will fall into the upper 30s to low 40s,
with patchy to areas of fog.

Sunday, high pressure continues to build into the area, leading
to partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions and temperatures in
the upper 50s to low 60s. To account for a good set up for deep
mixing tomorrow we`ve collaborated with neighboring offices to use
the 90th percentile for winds during the peak heating hours.
Also, have elected to use a blend of the 10th and 25th percentile
of the NBM for dew points. Sunday night, under mostly clear skies,
conditions will favor some ridge-valley splits, with lows in the
low 30s in sheltered valleys and hollow, with ridge-tops remaining
in the upper 30s. Fog will be possible again Sunday night,
however with time for the grounds to dry out some from yesterdays
rains, fog has been confined to the river valleys in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 432 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

The long-term forecast period begins with the continued influence of
surface high pressure as an upper-level ridge begins to build across
the southern Plains. Concurrently, an upper-level trough featuring
an embedded jet streak to the northeast will help to drive a dry
cold front through the CWA Sunday night into Monday. This moisture-
starved cold front is expected to pass without significant weather
impacts, as surface high pressure remains the dominant feature into
early next week. During this same timeframe, a progressive upper-
level shortwave trough will track northeastward from the Four
Corners region toward the Central Plains by early Monday morning.
The CWA is forecast to remain dry for Monday; however, as the
associated surface low-pressure system continues its eastward track,
increasing chances for showers will arrive late Monday night into
early Tuesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorm chances will then
be present from the time of the frontal arrival on Tuesday through
the subsequent cold frontal passage late Wednesday night. A cold
surface high-pressure system will subsequently build back into the
region for Thanksgiving Day and remain overhead through Black Friday.

The long-term period will be highlighted by a midweek surface low-
pressure system that becomes situated between two centers of high
pressure. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant and seasonal up
until Thursday, when the cold front ushers in a significantly colder
air mass for Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Overnight low
temperatures will follow this same trend before bottoming out in the
20s for the mornings of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2025

Current conditions range from LIFR, IFR and MVFR as low clouds
from earlier rain showers reduced these categories. Throughout the
day, there will be very slow and gradual improvement to VFR as
surface high pressure builds back into the region. Winds are
forecast to be light and variable through the TAF window.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GINNICK
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GINNICK