351
FXUS63 KJKL 251848 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
148 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A series of frontal boundaries will move across the region
  through Wednesday morning.

- Isolated, possibly strong storms are possible this afternoon/
  evening for areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway.

- A cold and drier airmass will settle into the region for
  Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

- There is a lot of uncertainty in the forecast for Saturday and
  beyond.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 125 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A shortwave trough that brought an area of rain/showers to the
region this morning to early this afternoon is across eastern KY
at this time and will depart into OH and WV over the next couple
of hours. Showers should be more isolated to scattered for the
rest of the afternoon, before a cold front nears this evening when
an uptick on coverage of showers should again occur and a storm or
two will also be possible. Hourly pops had a good handle on this
so the only changes were to hourly temperatures, dewpoints, and
winds at this point.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

Surface analysis indicates a weak warm front is lifting northward
through the forecast area, currently situated just south of the Ohio
River, based on the latest surface observations. Concurrently, a
surface low-pressure system is tracking across the Hill Parishes of
northern Louisiana. Showers, associated with the warm front, are
currently moving across the CWA. Strong LLJ winds are mixing down to
the surface, resulting in increasing wind speeds, particularly
across the southern CWA. Consequently, an SPS for wind gusts up to
35 mph has been issued through the mid-morning hours.

Upper-level flow analysis shows an upper-level trough positioned
over the Flint Hills of eastern Nebraska. This trough is forecast to
rapidly eject northeast, drawing the northern Louisiana surface low
into the Tennessee Valley. This evolution will lead to an increased
coverage of showers and thunderstorms. There is a potential for
strong thunderstorms during Tuesday afternoon, ahead of a weak cold
front. Forecast soundings for the afternoon suggest that some storms
could be marginally strong. Instability indices indicate a few
hundred Joules of elevated CAPE, along with adequate shear and ESRH,
and a veering vertical wind profile. However, mid-level lapse rates
and the overall CAPE magnitude are characterized as marginal.
Despite the marginal metrics, the potential exists for an isolated
strong to severe storm, with the possibility of storms exhibiting
rotation. Areas along and south of the Mountain Parkway are favored
for seeing these stronger storms. The weak cold front passage is
forecast for later this evening.

The trough driving todays surface low will be absorbed into the mean
flow later this morning. Simultaneously, a stronger shortwave trough
is forecast to dive southeastward from the northern Rockies across
the Upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. At the surface,
another cold front will propagate southeastward into the
Commonwealth and eventually traverse the area throughout Wednesday
before quickly exiting the forecast area.

The overall short-term period will be characterized by the approach
of an occluding surface low on Tuesday. A second cold front is
forecast to arrive on Wednesday. Temperatures are forecast to climb
into the low to upper 60s for Tuesday. Overnight low temperatures
will be mild, ranging from the upper 40s in the west to the mid-50s
in the east. Daytime high temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler
due to CAA following the frontal passage.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 456 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A surface high-pressure system is forecast to build into the region
and remain in place from Thanksgiving Day through late Saturday
night. While surface high pressure prevails, the upper-level flow
will persist from the northwest, supporting the advection of colder
air for both Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

Long-term deterministic models and a significant portion of their
individual ensemble members indicate an active conclusion to the
extended forecast period. While differences exist among the
individual model runs, the consensus trend is for a shortwave
perturbation to track from the southern Plains into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley. This feature will bring increasing chances of
rain showers, along with the potential for a rain/snow mix early
Sunday morning before temperatures warm sufficiently to support an
all-rain precipitation type. The forecast area is expected to remain
on the warm side of the system during its passage, leading to long-
duration rainfall.

The long-term period will be highlighted by high pressure building
into the region on Thursday. Due to the northwesterly flow, CAA will
favor colder temperatures beginning Thursday and persisting through
early Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to bottom
out in the 20s for the mornings of Thursday, Friday, and Saturday
before a warming trend commences on Sunday morning. Another low-
pressure system is forecast to impact the area toward the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2025

A mixture of mainly MVFR and VFR was reported at issuance time.
There should be a general lull in shower activity to begin the
period behind an upper disturbance, before a cold front nears
toward 00Z and crosses the area through about 06Z. There should be
an uptick in coverage of showers toward 00Z and for a few hours
after, generally for the more southern and eastern locations.
Chances for shower should linger through around 12Z, and even a
few hours later near the VA border as a secondary cold front
arrives and crosses east KY. A general trend to prevailing MVFR
and patchy IFR is anticipated with the cold front through roughly
04Z. Mainly MVFR should then prevail through 12Z, before
improvements to VFR spread from west to east to end the period.
Winds will average out of the south to southwest at 7 to 12KT to
begin the period before becoming southwest in all areas behind the
first front at 5 to 10KT. Then as the second front passes in the
12Z to 18Z timeframe, winds should become west at 10 to 15KT with
some gusts as high as 20 to 30KT possible. However, winds from any
thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening could be gusty and
erratic.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP