Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
814 FXUS62 KKEY 050850 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 350 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Breezes will gradually slacken through the upcoming weekend. -Near nil rain chances through the first half of the weekend. -Moisture increasing Saturday night through Monday ahead of a possible frontal system early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Another quiet overnight for the Florida Keys. A high pressure that is out across the southwestern North Atlantic has allow winds to gradually become east to southeast this morning. Relatively dry air remains in place and as such KBYX radar does not detect any precipitation near us. Unfortunately, the easterly flow has kept dew points in the lower 70s. This combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 70s is making it quite sticky for early December. Going forward today, the aforementioned high will continue to slide east across the Atlantic. At the same time, a coastal trough off the Carolina Coast will develop into a surface low later this morning and afternoon. The combination of the retreating high and developing low will result in breezes slackening this afternoon and through the weekend. Despite this surface feature taking shape, the mid and upper levels across the Florida Peninsula will continue to be dominated by strong ridging. This will not allow any southward movement of this front and instead stall it along the north Gulf Coast and Southeast U.S. through Sunday. Thereafter, a potent upper level trough will sweep through the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley, helping to drive a pair of strong surface low and high across the eastern half of the U.S. This will result in the stalled front getting shoved with haste towards the Florida Keys by Monday night. We expect a brief surge in northerly breezes as this feature sweeps through. Before this front arrives, moisture will be gradually increasing across the region starting Saturday night. This will allow for slight chances to return and then peak just ahead and along the frontal passage Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures may fall a few degrees behind the front but not expecting anything to really write home about. && .MARINE... Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 Light to gentle east to southeast breezes this morning will slacken through the afternoon as the pressure gradient across the region weakens. Expect light to gentle breezes to persist through at least Sunday. East to southeast winds initially will clock around towards the south and southwest as a front approaches from the northwest, starting Sunday. Breezes will freshen as the front gets closer to the Florida Keys coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Expect a brief period of moderate to fresh northerly breezes in the wake of the frontal passage. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 349 AM EST Fri Dec 5 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at MTH and EYW through the TAF 06Z TAF period. Light to gentle easterly winds will slowly veer southeasterly after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 74 83 74 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 82 74 82 75 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....AJP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest