Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
463 FXUS62 KKEY 011528 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1128 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes will prevail through the weekend. -Gradual warming trend expected over the weekend. -Next cold front sweeps through on Monday with another round of breezy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 This morning looks a lot like yesterday along the Florida Keys as an area of low to mid level vorticity is helping to maintain disorganized shower activity. Most of these light showers will remain over the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel, but a few isolated showers may approach the island chain. Lightning has not been observed with the current activity, and the chance of any occurring is near zero. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning shows some dry air in the low levels, but a significant amount of dry air above 700mb. Showers will not be able to build high enough to increase the risk of lightning. The most impressive feature noted on the KKEY sounding is the shallow layer of saturation between 770mb and 700mb. This is where the radiosonde likely went through the cloud shield to the south of the island chain. Similar to yesterday, the sun may be able to "burn" some of our cloud cover off by the late afternoon, but clear skies simply aren`t in our cards for today. Temperatures are near 75F, but anyone experiencing this persistent cloud cover won`t warm up much until the sun can get through. Light to gentle northeasterly breezes will keep the air moving, and dare we say that some of our warm weather lovers in the office have already expressed how "chilly" the air is. The current forecast does not need any updates or changes. && .MARINE... Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, high pressure will briefly stall along the Eastern Seaboard today. This will allow gentle to moderate northeasterly breezes to prevail over the weekend. A developing low pressure system over the Southeast early next week will likely freshen winds again as a front surges across the region. Thereafter, the next ridge will build in and breezes will slacken. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM EDT Sat Nov 1 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with BKN to OVC skies at, or above, FL080. Overall weather conditions will be dry, but an occasional very light shower may cross either terminal due to activity over the water. Northeast winds near 10 knots will occasionally gust to near 15 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2015, the daily record warm low temperature of 81F was recorded in Key West and Marathon. This is also the warmest low temperature ever recorded in the month of November. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872 and 1950 for Marathon. OF NOTE, In 1870, the first systematic and synchronized observations were taken by 24 offices nationwide in a new division of signal service (later to become the NWS), one of which was a station in Key West at the Russell house (on the west side of Duval st. between Front and Greene). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 81 72 83 73 / 10 10 20 30 Marathon 80 72 82 73 / 20 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...DP Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest