Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
085 FXUS62 KKEY 220905 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 405 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into early next week keeping breezes light to gentle with nil rain chances. -A broad continental high will advance into the eastern United States early next week resulting in moderately strengthening breezes and slight rain chances early to mid week. -The next significant cold front is not expected until late next week at the earliest. Consequently temperatures will range broadly near normal with dew points in the upper 60s to near 70. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 253 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 Quiet weather continues along the Keys this morning. A weakening surface ridge stretches across the Florida Peninsula and is driving light to gentle northeast to easterly breezes across the Keys. A formerly robust upper ridge across our area has almost entirely flattened out. However, lower to mid level ridging remains, along with the associated stable and dry mid levels. Radar imagery has been nearly shower free, with all activity found off the Cuban Coast. Temperatures have been close to seasonal averages, but dew points have remained elevated in the upper 60s to near 70. Expect subtle shifts in local weather over the next couple of days. The ridge across Florida is expected to weaken further as it is squeezed by a mid latitude trough passing to its north and day time heating over Florida. This should allow surface breezes to slacken a bit further and back northerly during the afternoons. While having little impact on temperatures, it should help to push dew points down a couple of degrees. Rain chances will remain near zero in the Keys due to weak forcing and still lingering warm and dry lower to mid levels. A complicated cut off low pushing into the west coast will be reflected in a sharp upper ridge riding eastward across the Plains early next week. Consequently, a surface ridge is expected to strengthen and expand as it drives into the eastern United States. This will result in a notable increase in easterly breezes early next week. While warm and dry mid level ridging will remain across our area, the increasing easterly flow will help to bump up dew points above 70 with temperatures edging a few degrees above normal. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer moisture will moisten and deepen quite a bit by Tuesday. This along with a veering profile justifies maintaining at least slight chance PoPs beginning Tuesday. The surface high will continue to drive eastward into the Atlantic through the week as a prefrontal trough swings through the northeast. As a result, the local pressure gradient will collapse and winds will slacken considerably, possibly becoming variable. Still, no major shifts to local weather is expected. However, due to the sensitivity of our weather to the timing, shape, and positioning of the boundary layer streamlines in this scenario, it is to early to be to definitive. It has been quite a while since the last cold front and finally there are glimmers of one on the horizon. While guidance has been quite inconsistent with timing and behavior of the next front, there is potential one may arrive late on Thanksgiving Day. Current indications are that winds will briefly surge out of the north to northeast. However, the progressive pattern remains and winds may quickly veer northeast to east through the upcoming weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 253 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 A surface ridge stretching across Florida will weaken further with day time heating. This will allow gentle breezes to slacken to a light to gentle breezes. Also, winds will likely back northerly in the afternoon. Winds will remain light and predominantly northeasterly through the weekend. A broad surface high will track eastward into the eastern United States early next week resulting in freshening northeast to easterly breezes. Cautions may be required mainly for the Florida Straits beginning late Monday. This high will continue to drive eastward into the Atlantic, and by late Wednesday the local pressure gradient will loosen considerably, allowing for relaxing breeze. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 253 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals with dry weather in place. Skies will remain mostly clear with only FEW clouds near FL030, and northeast to east surface winds 5 to 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2006, the daily record low temperature of 55F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....DP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest