Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
787 FXUS62 KKEY 210335 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1035 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Deep layered ridging will predominate through the weekend and into next week. -Surface ridging to our north will maintain gentle to moderate northeast to easterly breezes. -Temperatures will range near to slightly above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 A gorgeous evening is ongoing across the Florida Keys. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows estimated PWAT values hovering around 1 inch throughout the Keys. KBYX radar is not detecting any shower activity and GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows mostly mid level clouds north of the Chain with low level cumulus clouds south of the Chain. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s. Elongated high pressure remains anchored over the Eastern Seaboard with this high centered over southern New England. This promoting northeast to east breezes near 10 knots north of the Chain and 10 to 15 knots south of the Chain. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile. However, the profile does moisten some around 850 mb where some very shallow moisture is present. This layer is most likely deeper over the Straits where a fair amount of cumulus have been percolating as mentioned in the discussion section above. The PWAT value measured was around 1 inch which is near the 25th percentile for the date. Also, the wind profile in the lowest few thousand feet AGL is unidirectional out of the east between 15 to 20 knots. Since we have dry air in place, no trigger nearby, and no instability, expect a quiet night to continue with the best chance for a shower, if any, remaining over the Straits. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a high pressure system stretching from the western Atlantic to the Florida panhandle will consolidate along the Atlantic Coast over the next couple of days, leading to a brief strengthening of northeast to easterly breezes overnight. This high will lengthen out into the Atlantic through the remainder of the week and result in slight slackening to light to gentle by the weekend. Expect slightly fresher breezes south of the island chain. Breezes will gradually freshen early next week as the ridge is reinforced by a continental advancing into the eastern United States. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both terminals through the TAF period along with nil rain chances. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 81 73 81 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest