091
FXUS62 KKEY 031540
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-North to northeast breezes will freshen further across the
 western waters this afternoon as the next cold front begins
 moving in. Fresh breezes are expected across all coastal waters
 tonight.

-Breezy conditions are expected for the Island Chain tonight
 through Tuesday night.

-Breezes will slacken mid to late week as high pressure over the
 southeast pushes out onto the Atlantic and a trough swings
 through the eastern United States.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

A ~1025 mb high centered over the southeast will drive a cold
front southward through the Keys today and this evening. Winds
have already increased some out of the north to northeast this
morning. Day time heating will likely hold off the arrival of any
significant wind increase for island locations in the direct lee
of South Florida until this evening. This would encompass most of
the island chain. However, stronger breezes may sneak in during
the afternoon along the westernmost and easternmost portions of
the archipelago. Little in the way of cooling is expected and day
time highs will likely be near to slightly above 80, with dew
points holding broadly near 70. There will be a slight chance for
showers ahead of the cold front. Latest radar imagery indicates
scattered activity is currently approaching the Dry Tortugas.
With that said, the HRRR suggests that this activity will stay
to our west and the island chain will remain dry.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Robust high pressure over the southeastern United States will
drive a cold front southward through Keys waters this afternoon.
This will result in freshening breezes. Due to day time heating,
winds may actually lull in the lee of South Florida, before
surging this evening. A Caution is in effect for most Keys waters
for this afternoon and Small Craft Advisories may be required
beginning this evening.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals this
afternoon. Surface winds will be mostly gentle out of the north to
northeast.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Acquisition.....11

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