Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
731 FXUS62 KKEY 101738 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1238 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -As the front pushes eastward and away from the Florida Keys, much drier conditions will overspread today through the remainder of the week. -A reinforcing frontal boundary will move through tonight into tomorrow resulting in increasing northwesterly breezes. -Breezes will slacken Thursday and fluctuate between gentle to moderate through Monday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1229 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Broad and nearly stationary frontal zone continues to lay essentially right across the Florida Straits early this afternoon. Isolated to scattered shower activity is persisting over waters mainly 30+ nm offshore as a northerly breeze behind the broad front pushes the main convergence zone further south. Highest chances for convective showers will continue to very gradually shift south and eastward through this evening before the front gets pushed more quickly southeastward tonight, ushering in a much drier airmass to the Keys and marine zones. Northwesterly winds will be on the upward trend overnight tonight, especially for the Upper Keys and eastern marine zones where sustained winds will approach 20 mph towards daybreak. A general 15-20mph wind will be expected elsewhere. Highs today will top out mainly in the upper 70s, dropping into the low to mid 60s over the upper Keys tonight and upper 60s to near 70 for the lower Keys and Dry Tortugas. && .MARINE... Issued at 529 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, as a frontal boundary slides eastward and away from the Florida Keys marine zones during the early morning, breezes will slacken. A second weak front will push through the coastal waters late today and tonight, with modestly freshened northwesterly breezes clocking around to the northeast to east for late week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 Ceilings will continue to bounce between IFR, MVFR, and VFR this afternoon, so prevailing VFR in the TAFs was placed in the TAFs with tempos in place for lower ceilings (IFR at MTH and MVFR at EYW). Northerly to northwesterly winds will continue through the night. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 529 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025 As seen in the Straits of Florida on KBYX, the frontal boundary that passed through our island chain yesterday is still lingering. Overnight temperatures neared 70F and are now sitting in the lower 70s. Nighttime Microphysics depicts mostly cloudy skies. Along the Reef winds are being recorded at near 10 knots. Showers associated with this front as expected to diminish as the day goes on leaving mostly dry conditions for our region. Tonight, a reinforcing front is expected to push through the coastal waters. This front will result in northwesterly breezes becoming north to northeast but remaining gentle to moderate. Conditions are expected to remain dry through the first half of the weekend as high pressure builds behind this secondary front. Early next week the pattern will change while models are suggesting an increase in moisture and freshening of breezes, due to an upper- level disturbance developing in the Gulf. Once timing and confidence increases PoPs will be adjusted, but for now 20-30% chance will remain in the forecast. Stay tuned. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public...JAX Marine...KEY Aviation/Nowcasts....JAX Data Acquisition.....KEY Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest