Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
225 FXUS62 KKEY 061738 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 138 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 127 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF period. A cloud line is attempting to form over the Lower Keys at times producing light showers, therefore, VCSH is included at EYW. Near surface winds will be variable at near 5 knots, becoming north to northeast. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Another warm and humid mid-morning is ongoing for the Florida Keys. GOES-19 Satellite shows partly to mostly sunny skies and with temperatures in the mid 80s coupled with dewpoints in the upper 70s, it is kind of swampy out there. A few isolated showers are being detected on KBYX but the coverage and strength has deteriorated in these cells since earlier this morning. Surface winds are light and variable, generally northeast to east indicating we are in a weak synoptic flow pattern at the moment. Aloft, a broad area of weak ridging remains centered over the Gulf, while a shallow trough and low level vorticity axis lingers to the east across the Bahamas. While showers are currently limited, ample moisture continues to funnel into the area off of a stationary boundary just north of the Keys. For the rest of the day, showers will continue to linger around with different boundary interactions, but significant rainfall is not expected at this time. No changes were necessary to this update package. && .FORECAST... Issued at 341 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Weather conditions have mostly behaved during this overnight shift, but some pockets of showers are popping up in portions of our local waters as we type out this discussion. The pattern is still messy as there is a stationary boundary draped across the area coupled with an area of low level vorticity over the Bahamas. GOES-19 Cloud Top shows a mix of mid and upper level clouds, and automated observations at both of our airports confirm that these clouds have mainly been above 12k feet. These higher clouds should make for a beautiful sunrise without lower clouds blocking the view! Surface observations both along the island chain and on marine platforms are showing breezes out of the north to northeast near 5 knots, or 6 mph. Occasionally, a stray variable breeze will be reported, but this north to northeasterly flow should prevail today. The very slow movement of the activity on radar suggests mean layers winds are exceptionally light, but this won`t be a problem when these showers sit over the water. However, if and when showers are able to build over our island communities, the stagnant flow may lead to near stationary showers. This could lead to localized flooding concerns as water levels have already been elevated during high tide cycles lately. Considering the essentially untapped environment reflected in last night`s 00Z KKEY sounding, there is plenty of opportunity for on and of showers today with embedded thunderstorms at times. The general pattern looks to remain the same over the next few days. The weak area of vorticity still looks like it`ll gradually trail across our area, and ensemble guidance suggests high chances of accumulating rainfall through Friday. As this happens, a tightening gradient over Florida will lead to some elevated breezes. The remnants of this vorticity will be ushered away as we progress through the weekend. MOS guidance is starting to hint at dew points in the lower 70s by the weekend, suggesting an approaching cold front will help to dry things out, and make weather conditions a little more comfortable along the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 1111 AM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a combination of a stationary frontal boundary and a weak area of low pressure still situated near the Bahamas will make for a messy weather pattern through the next several days. This will maintain above normal rain chances through the entire forecast period. In addition, it will keeps winds fluctuating between northeast and southeast at times. At this time, the strongest breezes look to stay north of our waters but will be watching for updates. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest