Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
231 FXUS62 KKEY 090312 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1012 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Warm and humid weekend across the Keys with light breezes. -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide through the weekend. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing on Monday. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1013 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 Stargazers may rejoice across the Florida Keys thanks to the mostly clear skies tonight. Scans from the KBYX radar show almost only non meteorological objects across the CWA. GOES East nighttime microphysics returns highlight only isolated cumulus clouds. The KKEY 00Z sounding did not sample a favorable environment for cloud cover, but the sensors did return a PWAT value just below the 75th percentile for the day. However, ceilometer measurements at EYW and MTH show cloud bases are lowering. Cloud bases were as low as 1400 feet, which matches the mid to upper 70s dew points across the Keys. Conditions across the Keys suggest no changes are necessary for the overnight forecast. Outside of Florida, gale warnings are in effect for southern Lake Michigan. Those winds are the result of a developing low pressure system over the Ohio Valley and its associated fronts. A shortwave trough that was moving across Montana has merged with a broad upper level low, which is now directing an early blast of arctic air into the northern Plains. How is this relevant to the Florida Keys? The developing mid latitude system will weaken the pressure gradient across the Keys enough to support periods of light and variable winds overnight. Light breezes will not last. In the northern Gulf, convective models suggest strong breezes may develop as early as tomorrow afternoon. Use the relatively calm day tomorrow for anything on the water before the cold front reaches the island chain! && .MARINE... Issued at 1013 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 From synopsis, high pressure will continue to slide eastward across the central North Atlantic this afternoon through Sunday. This will result in mainly light east to southeast breezes, potentially becoming variable at times. A potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones on Monday with fresh to strong northerlies expected in its wake early next week. While the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1013 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the 00Z TAF period. Isolated showers may be able to form near the terminals, but impacts will be too minimal to include VCSH for either terminal. Near surface winds will trend east southeasterly with occasional periods of variable conditions. Winds will slowly veer southwesterly after sunrise. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 85 74 80 / 10 20 20 10 Marathon 77 85 74 79 / 10 10 20 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest