Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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779
FXUS62 KKEY 111456
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1056 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-One more day of well above normal rain chances (80%) with
 numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected.

-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys.
 The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent
 bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways
 and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue through
 the holiday weekend.

-A weak cold front is anticipated to press through the Keys later
 today ushering in drier air as it does. This will promote rapidly
 decreasing rain chances well as bring first taste of Fall to the
 Keys into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
Satellite-derived wind and vorticity analysis highlights an early
season frontal feature progged to push through the Florida Keys
later today. As is often the case for early season fronts in
October, the frontal passage will likely not be as clean as
numerical weather prediction would suggest, as a discernible weak
area of low pressure appears to evolve on the southwest periphery
of the frontal feature north of the Dry Tortugas. This will slow
the frontal push, with the associated pre-frontal scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms not arriving to the Keys until
the early afternoon hours. It is worth mentioning that along with
the messy frontal push, the forcing for ascent is also waning, and
thus the chances for measurable rainfall across the Keys may be
lower than MOS guidance will suggest.

The first taste of Florida Fall arrives tonight --enjoy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
From synopsis, an elongated area of low pressure across the Keys will
continue slowly drifting northeastward today. This will support
one more day of well above normal rain chances along with south to
southwesterly light to gentle breezes gradually backing to the
northwest to north tonight and Sunday. This low will continue
organizing and strengthening as it heads northeastward adjacent to
the Mid- Atlantic coast. As it does this, it will drive an early
season cold front towards the Keys, further shifting winds to the
north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our
western marine zones today and tonight due to the influence of the
low pressure system. In the wake of the front, high pressure
builds across the eastern United States leading to freshening
northeasterly breezes heading towards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals. An early season
cold front is progged to push through the Island Chain this
evening. Ahead of it, a band of showers with isolated
thunderstorms will be possible, although confidence in the band
currently in the offshore Gulf making it to the Keys is uncertain.
A window of VCSH is included in the TAFs at this time to account
for this feature, although this will be reevaluated at the 18z TAF
issuance. Near-surface winds generally variable will back to the
northwest to north in the wake of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  83  77  86  77 /  60  20  20  10
Marathon  83  76  86  76 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BT
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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