Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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362
FXUS62 KKEY 130900 CCA
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Key West FL
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry
 air dominates the Florida Keys.

-A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity
 levels will be below normal.

-A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and
 Middle Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for
 these island communities, as water levels have decreased below
 the advisory criteria.

-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida
 Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even
 outside the times of high tide.

-Newly formed Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic will
 NOT be a threat to the Keys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
A deep upper level trough remain entrenched across the eastern
United States with this trough extending southward into Florida
and the Gulf. On either side of this trough are two deep mean
layer ridges with one centered across the south-central United
States and the other one over the Atlantic to the north of Puerto
Rico and the Lesser Antilles. KBYX radar has not detected showers
for the first few hours overnight. However, in the last hour or
so, showers have now begun to percolate over the distant Straits
of Florida. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics shows a camaraderie
of low to mid level clouds throughout the region leading to partly
cloudy skies. Temperatures remain comfortable along the Island
Chain in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are in the lower to
mid 70s. High pressure is beginning to build in across the North
Gulf Coast. This is promoting mainly north to northeast breezes
near 5 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Keys.

.FORECAST...
A quieter weather pattern will remain through the Keys for next
several days as dry air dominates the region. However, the
moisture will not be far away with the Straits of Florida already
seeing showers developing again early this morning. Model guidance
is disagreeing on how much of this moisture makes it back to the
north to affect the Island Chain. Therefore, this is lending to a
low to average confidence in the forecast, even though it is
within the next 6 to 24 hours. Some of this moisture is
anticipated to creep back northward for overnight and Tuesday
resulting in a slight uptick back to 20%, though some guidance
suggests higher than that as previously alluded to.

Another boundary moves through the Keys late Tuesday/Tuesday
night which will usher in even drier air resulting in a period of
PoPs at 10%. In addition, north to northeasterly breezes are
expected to freshen this week as high pressure builds in from the
north. Breezes will further shift to mainly northeasterly for much
of the week peaking overnight and in the morning and lulling in
the afternoon.

Moisture will increase a little bit for late week into next
weekend as the flow begins to shift more east to southeast. Rain
chances creep back up a little bit to 20% as a result. Also, a
breezy period is possible as we get to the end of the week and
into the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens across the
region. Winds will mostly remain out of the northeast to east.
Other than that, this week looks to feature highs in the mid 80s
and lows in the mid to upper 70s along with more comfortable
humidity than we have dealt with as of late. It appears fall may
be here to stay at least for this week. Dew points may even drop
into the mid to upper 60s towards mid week! Stay tuned!

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, low
pressure departs the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic coastline today.
High pressure builds in behind it across much of the eastern
United States. This will promote peaking and lulling mainly
northeasterly breezes through much of the period. Breezes will
peak mostly during the late evenings to mornings and lull in the
afternoons.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period
given overall dry conditions abounding. Light north winds veer to
the northeast through the morning, becoming near 10 knots by
midday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this day in 1879, the daily record rainfall of 4.22" was
recorded at Key West. Rainfall records for Key West date back to
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  84  77  85  77 /  10  20  20  10
Marathon  86  77  86  76 /  10  20  20  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....MC

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