Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
779 FXUS62 KKEY 111456 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1056 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -One more day of well above normal rain chances (80%) with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys. The combination of the current King Tide cycle and persistent bouts of rainfall will support additional flooding over roadways and low lying lots. Coastal flooding will likely continue through the holiday weekend. -A weak cold front is anticipated to press through the Keys later today ushering in drier air as it does. This will promote rapidly decreasing rain chances well as bring first taste of Fall to the Keys into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Satellite-derived wind and vorticity analysis highlights an early season frontal feature progged to push through the Florida Keys later today. As is often the case for early season fronts in October, the frontal passage will likely not be as clean as numerical weather prediction would suggest, as a discernible weak area of low pressure appears to evolve on the southwest periphery of the frontal feature north of the Dry Tortugas. This will slow the frontal push, with the associated pre-frontal scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms not arriving to the Keys until the early afternoon hours. It is worth mentioning that along with the messy frontal push, the forcing for ascent is also waning, and thus the chances for measurable rainfall across the Keys may be lower than MOS guidance will suggest. The first taste of Florida Fall arrives tonight --enjoy. && .MARINE... Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 From synopsis, an elongated area of low pressure across the Keys will continue slowly drifting northeastward today. This will support one more day of well above normal rain chances along with south to southwesterly light to gentle breezes gradually backing to the northwest to north tonight and Sunday. This low will continue organizing and strengthening as it heads northeastward adjacent to the Mid- Atlantic coast. As it does this, it will drive an early season cold front towards the Keys, further shifting winds to the north to northeast. Northerly swells will be possible in our western marine zones today and tonight due to the influence of the low pressure system. In the wake of the front, high pressure builds across the eastern United States leading to freshening northeasterly breezes heading towards mid- week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals. An early season cold front is progged to push through the Island Chain this evening. Ahead of it, a band of showers with isolated thunderstorms will be possible, although confidence in the band currently in the offshore Gulf making it to the Keys is uncertain. A window of VCSH is included in the TAFs at this time to account for this feature, although this will be reevaluated at the 18z TAF issuance. Near-surface winds generally variable will back to the northwest to north in the wake of the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 77 86 77 / 60 20 20 10 Marathon 83 76 86 76 / 70 20 10 10 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest