Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
149 FXUS62 KKEY 100315 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Seasonal King Tides will likely support bouts of minor coastal flooding around the times of high tide again overnight. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A significant cold front will blast through the Florida Keys on Monday. This will result in much cooler temperatures along with windy conditions developing for the first part of the work week. -Temperatures expected to return to slightly below normal by the end of the week as a high pressure system sets up over the northern Gulf. .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 Sunday evening over the Florida Keys ended up being surprisingly active. Weak southwesterly mean layer winds allowed cloud lines to form across the Lower and Middle Keys. Radar derived MRMS three hour rainfall totals calculated a quarter to half of an inch of accumulation over Sugarloaf and Cudjoe Keys. The cloud line was able to redevelop over Key West and generate a waterspout south of Smathers beach. Sunset brought an end to active weather across the CWA. Breezes along the reef slackened to light and variable with both EYW and MTH measuring variable conditions. GOES East nighttime microphysics highlights lingering cirrus clouds and a few low level cumulus in the region. Dew points continue to linger in the mid to upper 70s. All these measurements are supported by the 00Z KKEY sounding. Winds near the surface were light and variable, mean layer winds were near 5 knots, and the sampled PWAT value was just above the 75th percentile. Overnight, expect another muggy, almost wind free night across the Keys. Tomorrow, everyone in the Keys will experience a rather dramatic change. Over the past few days, a shortwave trough and a larger upper level low merged over the Midwest. Southern Lake Michigan is under Gale Warnings with a potent Lake Effect snow event in the Chicago area. Freeze warnings are in effect from North Carolina through Alabama, finally ending in the Oklahoma panhandle. What impacts will reach the Florida Keys from this system? Satellite derived ALPW measurements show a sharp gradient between moist and dry air entering the northern Gulf. A progressive cold front will surge south across the Gulf towards the Keys. Recent CAMS runs suggest the cold front`s time of arrival across the Florida Keys to start near 10 AM. Cold frontal passage across the Keys may end around 4 PM. Winds are expected to rapidly surge to strong northwesterly breezes across the CWA. Temperatures will start to fall, and statistical model guidance suggests dew points may drop below 60 F by tomorrow evening. In sum, brace for wind and cooler temperatures. The Florida Keys winter is fast approaching. && .MARINE... Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 From synopsis, a potent cold front will push through the Florida Keys marine zones starting tomorrow morning, bringing fresh to strong northerly winds by the afternoon. While the next high builds in behind the front, winds will shift out of the northeast and gradually slacken. Moderate to occasionally fresh breezes will remain possible through the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1015 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH during the overnight hours of the 00Z TAF period. A strong cold front will push across the Florida Keys coastal waters from west to east in the morning. Enough moisture is present to include MVFR CIGs and VCSH in the TAFs. Light, occasionally variable, winds will gradually veer westerly overnight. After frontal passage, winds will rapidly increase. By sunset, sustained winds are expected to reach near 20 knots. Northwesterly wind gusts near 25 knots may start as early as 15Z. Crosswinds will be a threat during the day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 73 83 57 71 / 20 30 0 0 Marathon 74 80 55 68 / 20 30 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....AJP Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest