Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
438 FXUS62 KKEY 050230 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1030 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 An inverted surface trough over the Bahamas is nestled within the southern periphery of a sprawling high over the eastern United States. As a result, winds are gentle and broadly out of the east along the island chain this evening. Deep layered moisture climbed quite a bit over the past 24 hours and this evenings sounding indicated a precipitable water of 2.25 inches. This increase was likely driven by an upper level trough across the Gulf and associated reflection through the lower levels and surface. In addition, CAPE was plenty sufficient to support deep convection. All this along with confluent lower level flow contributed to quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across the area this afternoon. More recently, most of this activity has shifted west and northwestward out of the forecast area. The Gulf trough is expected to shift northwestward towards the Texas coast and help to pull the best lower level confluence further away from the Keys. Meanwhile, the trough over the Bahamas will ease a bit further northwestward towards the Keys and South Florida. This will result in winds generally veering further southeast and slackening. However, some variability is expected to creep in. Deep layered moisture will remain elevated with ample CAPE and weak inhibition. This along with the approaching inverted trough and upstream radar trends justifies holding high chance PoPs. This is slightly below statistical guidance. Overnight lows will be in the upper 70s with dew points in the mid 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 The combination of strong high pressure over the eastern United States and adjacent Atlantic, and an inverted trough over the Bahamas is resulting in gentle to moderate broadly easterly breezes on Keys waters. The trough will shift a bit closer to the Keys through the overnight and should result in winds relaxing and veering southeasterly with some variability. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight. With that said, scattered activity may result in periods of sub VFR conditions. Surface winds will be gentle out of the east. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest