366
FXUS62 KKEY 120240
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys.

-First taste of Fall for the Florida Keys behind today`s frontal
 passage. Drier air filtering in behind will promote rapidly
 decreasing rain chances into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Winds all across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters have
clocked around to the northwest and north in the wake of today`s
frontal passage. The main batch of showers and thunderstorms
quickly subsided prior to sunset. Within the last hour, shallow
cold air advection showers have been waxing and waning as they
slide southeast across the outer Gulf and portions of the Lower
Keys. These showers are likely only dropping a hundredth of an
inch or two at most. Meanwhile, a Coastal Flood Advisory continues
for the Florida Keys through at least one more high tide cycle.

Drier air will gradually filter in behind the frontal passage,
leading to lower, more comfortable dew points as well as lower
rain chances. Given the shallow showers that are being produced by
the cold air advection, will leave the 20 percent PoPs for the
overnight. Otherwise, northerly winds will persist overnight.
There is a chance that we could see a minor nocturnal surge off
the mainland and therefore winds have been nudged up slightly.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

Northerly winds will continue to filter in behind the
recent frontal passage today. Expect northerly swells across our
western marine zones overnight. In the wake of the front, high
pressure builds across the eastern United States leading to
freshening northeasterly breezes heading towards mid- week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

VFR conditions will be the predominant for the overnight. Some
shallow showers passing through overnight could bring brief MVFR
CIGs but the coverage is not enough to include mentions of VCSH at
this time.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076>078.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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