Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
034 FXUS62 KKEY 141842 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slight rain chances expected for the next several days as dry air dominates the Florida Keys. -Humidity levels will be below normal through most of the week. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Keys. -A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even outside the times of high tide. -Tropical Storm Lorenzo, located in the central Atlantic, will not be a threat to the Keys. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH for the rest of today and into tonight. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out, low chances of organized development will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at near 10 knots with frequent gusts to 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast late overnight. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Things are drying out along the Florida Keys after a somewhat wet start to the day. Outflow from yesterday`s convection over Cuba pushed north through the Straits of Florida developing showers that ultimately crossed through the Lower and Middle Keys before sunrise. What now remains is a cluster of convection bubbling in the eastern Straits of Florida as well as a blob of showers drifting west near the Dry Tortugas. GOES-19 visible imagery notes clear skies over the western half of the Keys with cloud debris obscuring the remainder of the island chain. Despite some of the extra cloud cover, temperatures are still hovering near or just above 80 with dewpoints still stuck in the lower to mid 70s. Moderate to fresh northeast to east breezes persist along the Reef making for a choppy day in the nearshore waters of the Keys. The Keys are currently situated along a steep moisture gradient brought along by the front that swept through southeast CONUS this past weekend. CIMSS MIMIC PW constantly puts values greater than 2 inches in the Florida Straits with values approaching 1.5 inches found in deep Gulf waters north of the island chain. This morning`s 12z KKEY sounding leaned towards the wetter side of things with a PW above 2.13 inches likely helping explain the early morning rainfall. Guidance expects mid level moisture to gradually sink south as the nor`easter on north end of the Eastern Seaboard marches out into the North Atlantic. Thus have opted to keep slight rain chances in the short term. Breezes are also expected to slacken starting tonight into tomorrow as high pressure takes over the Eastern Seaboard. A shame we could not also see a proper drop in dewpoints, but it is still just a little too early for a real frontal passage just yet. Stay tuned... && .FORECAST... Issued at 421 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 The forecast challenge for the upcoming week will be placing the precipitable water gradient between Florida and Cuba. The upper level pattern is shifting to allow sinking air over the southeastern CONUS, but moisture transport north of Cuba will cancel out some of the subsidence. The current forecast shows more subsidence, and thus drier conditions, through midweek. The pattern shifts by the end of the week, and the subsident pattern shifts eastward into the Atlantic. Near normal (around 20%) to above normal rain chances return over the weekend as the wind pattern shifts from northeasterlies to east-southeasterlies in the lower atmosphere. Breezes will be the other topic of interest. When the upper level trough moves offshore, a mid latitude low is expected to develop off the Eastern Seaboard. At the same time, a high pressure system along the Canadian border will sink southeast over the Great Lakes. Slackening breezes are expected midweek before the high sinks south towards the Carolina coastline. Once the high set up over the southeastern US, fresh breezes are possible across the Keys waters this weekend. Small Craft Advisories are possible depending on the southward extent of the high and the location of the pressure gradient. The windy season is fast approaching, so check back later for an update on whether or not boating will be seasickness inducing across the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 242 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in all coastal waters of the Florida Key except the Florida Bay. A low pressure system developing off the Eastern Seaboard and a high pressure system over the eastern United States will allow moderate to fresh breezes tonight. Slackening winds are expected on Wednesday as the aforementioned low moves east. By the end of the week, high pressure will set up along the Carolina coast and support freshening breezes. Expect peak breezes during the late evening to mornings, and lulls in the afternoons. Shower coverage will remain isolated to scattered. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 76 86 76 86 / 10 10 10 10 Marathon 76 84 75 84 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest