Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL

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884
FXUS62 KKEY 130240
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1040 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Slight rain chances expected for the next several days, as dry
 air dominates the Florida Keys.

-A taste of Fall continues for much of the week, as humidity
 levels will be below normal.

-A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Lower and Middle
 Keys. The Coastal Flood Advisory has been canceled for these
 island communities, as water levels have decreased below the
 advisory criteria.

-A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Upper Florida
 Keys. Little relief in coastal flooding is expected, even
 outside the times of high tide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

A quiet night for the Florida Keys. A stationary boundary at the
surface is located just outside of area of responsibility to the
southeast. Meanwhile, aloft there is excellent convergence
occurring from central to eastern Cuba. This has been supporting a
healthy cluster of convection across Cuba and stretching northward
across the Bahamas. Temperatures this hour are hovering near or
just below 80 degrees. Dew points continue to slowly click down
with values in the lower to mid 70s as drier air continues to
slowly filter in.

Expecting another minor nocturnal surge to come off the mainland
late overnight and have upped winds to reflect that. We should see
winds holdover a couple hours after sunrise then fall briefly into
the afternoon before freshening in the evening. Otherwise, dry air
in place will continue to limit rain chances to where the
strongest surface convergence can occur. Therefore, have left
PoPs where they are at for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Gentle to moderate north to northeasterly breezes expected
overnight as the Keys remain in between low pressure off the Mid-
Atlantic and high pressure building in across the northern Gulf
Coast. High pressure will build across the eastern United States
to start the week, leading to freshening mainly northeasterly
breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the overnight with dry
conditions. Northerly winds will increase towards sunrise and
clock around more to the northeast on Monday.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory for FLZ076.

GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...LIW
Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW
Data Acquisition.....DR

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