Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
452 FXUS62 KKEY 032041 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 341 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION, PREV DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... -North to northeast breezes will freshen across the forecast area this evening as the next cold front continues to drive southward. This will result in breezy conditions tonight through Tuesday night. -A Small Craft Advisory will likely be required for most Keys waters tonight. Winds are expected to remain a bit weaker on Gulf and Bay waters adjacent to the Middle and Upper Keys, where only cautions will be advertised. -Breezes will slacken mid to late week as high pressure over the southeast pushes out onto the Atlantic and a trough swings through the eastern United States. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals tonight. While shower potential is quite limited, they cannot be completely ruled out. A cold front advancing through the area will result in freshening north to northeasterly breezes this evening. This will result in crosswinds at the terminals. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 423 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 It has been a fairly quiet overnight across the Florida Keys. KBYX radar shows any remaining rain that was over the eastern Straits earlier in the night has moved off to the east. There were also some showers being detected to the west of the Straits of Florida over the southern Gulf waters. GOES East Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows mostly clear skies across the Keys as well as most of the cloud cover has also moved east out of the Keys coverage area. This has led to a comfortable night along the Island Chain. Temperatures are in the lower 70s with dew points near 70 degrees. The Keys remain in a col region for now with all significant weather systems remaining either east of the area or northwest of the region. This is resulting in marine platforms observing mainly light north to northeast breezes. .FORECAST... The main story going forward will be an approaching cold front later today. This front is connected to a developing area of low pressure off the North Carolina coastline. The front is draped south-southwestward through the central Florida Peninsula and into the central Gulf. As the aforementioned low pressure area continues to strengthen and move northeastward, a strong surface high pressure will build in behind it which will help to push the front southeastward towards the Keys. We expect frontal passage sometime this afternoon into this evening. This will result in freshening breezes initially across the western waters this afternoon and then across the entire area tonight. Therefore, expect another period of breezy conditions out of the north to northeast tonight. The surface high will traverse across the Southeast U.S. tonight through Wednesday before emerging into the western North Atlantic. As it does so the high will flatten and weaken as it continues moving eastward farther out to sea mid to late week. This will keep breezy conditions initially through Tuesday night with slackening breezes thereafter. Slight rain chances are anticipated today and tonight as the front presses through before the deeper dry air moves in. Mid to late week will see moisture starting to return, resulting in increasing rain chances. The period starts out with slight chances across the Island Chain as most of the moisture will initially be pooling north of Cuba and across the southern Straits of Florida. However, as the week progresses, we expect this moisture to continue bleeding northward as well as becoming deeper through the column. This will result in chances of rain for late week into the weekend. && .MARINE... Issued at 423 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution (SCEC) for increasing winds this afternoon is headlined for the nearshore waters surrounding the Lower Keys, the offshore Gulf waters, and the western Straits of Florida. In addition, Small Craft Advisory likely will be required tonight is headlined for the offshore Gulf waters, all the Florida Straits all of Hawk Channel, as well as the nearshore waters north of the Lower Keys. Meanwhile, a Small Craft Advisory may be required tonight is headlined for the nearshore and bay waters north of the Middle and Upper Keys. From synopsis, north to northeast breezes are expected to freshen today as a cold front approaches and then surges through the area. In the wake of the front, strong surface high pressure slowly migrates eastward across the Southeast U.S. which will maintain moderate to fresh breezes. Thereafter, breezes slacken as the ridge moves further out into the Atlantic and weakens. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory GMZ033>035-042-043-052-053-072-073. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....11 Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest