571
FXUS62 KKEY 300324
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1024 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Ongoing shower activity will continue into Sunday morning, with a
 slight chance of thunderstorms.

-Windy conditions continue through the overnight, beginning to
 slacken approaching sunrise on Sunday.

-Small Craft Advisories conditions are expected for all Keys
 coastal waters through early Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1020 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
Numerous showers have developed and are moving across the Keys and
surrounding coastal waters, thanks to broadly convergent low-level
easterly flow and modest instability as seen in the 00z KKEY
sounding. This is also helped by building surface dew points
returning to the upper 60s to near 70, and PWat back above 1 inch.
That all said, dry air aloft is still limiting vertical growth of
the shower activity, with echo tops being largely limited to
around 20 kft; as a result, no lightning has been detected with
any of these showers thus far, though a stray strike continues to
be possible.

The convergent flow is the result of the remnants of our frontal
boundary stalled to our south, and the large surface high over the
Mid-Atlantic continuing to pull off to the northeast. For the
moment, the pressure gradient is continuing to drive windy
conditions across the Keys, but as the high pulls further away,
winds will begin to slacken into Sunday morning. This will also
gradually reduce the convergence driving the shower activity,
though this activity is expected to persist through sunrise.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1020 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys
waters. From synopsis, a frontal boundary south of the area,
paired with a dominant surface high over the eastern CONUS, will
maintain fresh to strong northeasterly breezes late tonight. As
the front decays and the high shifts northeastward, breezes will
begin to slacken by Sunday morning. Another cold front may be on
the horizon for the middle of the week, reflected in the breezes
turning around the clock ahead of it. Shower activity will wax and
wane throughout the marine forecast period.


&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1020 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025
Shower activity through the bulk of the TAF period will result in
brief episodes of MVFR CIGs and visibility, though VFR will be the
dominant category at both terminals. Given the transient nature of
these episodes, VCSH is carried through the period for both
terminals, and categorical changes are and will be covered by
TEMPOs and amendments as needed. Northeast to east winds of 15 to
20 knots, with gusts to 25 knots, will begin to slacken by
sunrise.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  72  79  74  81 /  50  20  10  20
Marathon  73  80  73  82 /  50  20  20  20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for GMZ031>035-
     042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MC
Aviation/Nowcasts....MC
Data Acquisition.....DR

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