720
FXUS63 KLBF 301124
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to remain above average this week,
  with highs in the 80s expected each day. A return to more
  seasonal temperatures is expected this weekend behind a cold
  front, with potential for cooler temps by early next week.

- Breezy conditions continue today, with strong southerly winds
  gusting up to 30 mph.

- Little to no precipitation is expected this week, as the low
  layers of the atmosphere remain dry. By the weekend, chances
  for precipitation increase following a frontal passage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

The northern jet stream remains in a ridge pattern across the
western United States, with the southern jet bringing a trough
across Colorado and Wyoming. Low pressure systems are observed over
southeastern Montana and eastern Colorado, with a subtle surface
boundary connecting the systems. The boundary is expected to remain
nearly in place today, with a decent pressure gradient across the
region. Additionally, forecast soundings continue to suggest strong
mixing in the boundary layer, with strong low to mid level winds.
This will allow for another breezy afternoon across western and
north central Nebraska, with southerly wind gusts up to 30 mph this
afternoon into the evening. As the boundary layer decouples this
evening, winds may decrease at the surface, but a strong low level
jet may create aviation concerns (see the aviation section for
more). The low level jet may also provide a forcing mechanism for
light showery activity overnight, but given the very dry low layers,
not expecting any precipitation to reach the ground.

Upper level winds decrease on Wednesday, which should help limit
surface gusts across the region. Peak wind gusts are expected up to
25 mph, however, this will likely be highly localized to portions of
north central Nebraska. Highs are still expected to climb into the
80s across the region, and again, no precipitation is expected given
the dry low levels. Skies remain mostly clear Wednesday afternoon
and overnight. With the clear skies overnight, lows are expected to
drop into the low 50s across most of the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

By Thursday, the upper level ridge remains over western and north
central Nebraska, with a deepening trough tracking across northern
California. Southerly flow continues at the surface, with areas of
warm air advection across western and north central Nebraska. With
the slow moving nature of the trough, the pattern remains similar
for Friday, too. This set up brings the warmest temperatures of the
week, with highs climbing into the mid and upper 80s across the
region, and the possibility for some areas to break the low 90s.
With the upper level ridge in place and dry low levels in the
atmosphere, precipitation chances remain limited through the end of
the week.

By the weekend, the upper level trough tracks across the Four
Corners region, bringing upper level support across western
Nebraska. A low pressure system tracks across the region, along with
a cold front. Latest guidance has slowed this system slightly, so
highs may still be warmer than average for areas east of Highway 83
on Saturday, with more seasonal temperatures behind the front in the
Panhandle. This slower solution has also trended precipitation
chances back to start the weekend, bringing precipitation chances
back down to slight chances (less then 20 percent). However, better
chances of rain arrive Saturday evening into early morning Sunday.
Ensemble forecasts are generally in agreement on precipitation
chances Saturday evening, with multiple members highlighting rain
potential across the region. This is also reflected in the latest
NBM forecast, which brings 30 to 50 percent chances of rain across
the region. In addition to the precipitation chances, temperatures
are expected to cool off behind the front, bringing highs back to
seasonal on Sunday. In fact, we could see highs only climb into the
60s by early next week, which would be slightly cooler than our
average high, which is around 70. Will need to continue to monitor
forecast trends this week, though, as timing and amplitude of the
trough will have impacts on the precipitation chances and
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today and tonight. Areas of high based cloud are
expected across the region today, with minimal impacts to aviation.
The main concerns today will be the strong, gusty southerly wind
gusts across the region. Gusts will be strongest across northern
Nebraska, where gusts could push in excess of 30 knots at times.
This evening, as the boundary layer decouples, a strengthening low
level jet will again bring LLWS concerns to area terminals. Latest
guidance suggests the main core of the jet will set up along a KLBF
to KONL line, with winds aloft pushing 40 knots. Will continue to
monitor the set up tonight, as LLWS may need to be brought back west
to KVTN. However, much will depend on how well decoupling occurs at
KVTN. For now, gusty winds may persist through much of the overnight
period, so will go with gusts and no LLWS for KVTN at this time.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie