804
FXUS63 KLBF 042351
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
651 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions and strong south winds
  expected into this evening.

- Thunderstorms with isolated damaging wind gusts are possible
  across western Nebraska this evening.

- After a cool start to next week, temperatures will gradually
  warm through the coming week with mainly dry conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Potent shortwave located across southwest Wyoming this afternoon.
This feature will shift quickly northeastward tonight. Surface low
pressure continues to deepen across northeast Colorado this
afternoon will shift northeastward toward central South Dakota this
evening as the shortwave begins to eject toward the northern plains.
A surface trough will trail back to the southwest from the low
across northwest Nebraska through early this evening, meanwhile a
cold front will be surging across the Panhandle. Strong southerly
winds will be in place through this evening, and with relative
humidity values in the 20-30% range across much of the area east of
the trough, will continue the Red Flag Warning through mid-evening.

As expected the airmass just ahead of the surface trough is quite
dry with surface dew points in the lower to mid 40s. This is due to
drier air being advected in from western Kansas and eastern
Colorado. The more moist air is displaced from the surface trough,
with mid 50s to lower 60s dew points remaining east of Highway 183.
Nevertheless, with such dynamics and forcing aloft, a line of
convection should erupt late this afternoon and early evening across
the Panhandle. HRRR/CAMs show the potential for at least isolated
damaging wind gusts across the Panhandle into western Nebraska this
evening as the line quickly moves northeastward. As the upper
forcing quickly moves northeast into the Dakotas, convection should
weaken fairly rapidly, but a strong storm or two could reach as far
east as the Highway 83 corridor around 9-10pm CDT or so. A cold
front will make it`s way across the area late tonight with the front
settling south of the area across Kansas Sunday night. Convection is
likely to develop north of the boundary late Sunday night as
lift/FGEN increase north of the front as the LLJ intensifies to the
south of the boundary. Most of rainfall will stay to the southeast
of the area but do have at least some chance for showers across the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Upper level ridging aloft looks to take shape as we head into next
week. A small quick moving shortwave does cross the area Wednesday
afternoon and evening. This could bring a small chance for showers
but nothing in the way of much measurable rainfall is expected.
Expect a cool start to the week behind the departing weekend system.
Then, as the upper level ridging takes hold, a return to highs in
the mid to upper 70s are expected by Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

There will be LLWS this evening through midnight across portions
of the Sandhills into north central and southwest Nebraska.
Winds just off the sfc will be around 50 kts out of the south.
SFC winds will also be gusty through the evening hours out of
the south around 15 to 25 kts with gust near 40 kts. Winds will
decrease through the overnight to around 5 to 15 kts, then
increase again by mid-morning, switching to the northwest around
15 to 20 kts with gust up to 30 kts. There will also be chances
for showers and thunderstorms this evening with a line of
scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to move through,
gusty winds will be the main concern, with some small hail
possible. Showers and thunderstorms will be mostly out of the
area by midnight.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Critical fire weather conditions will continue into this evening
across all of western and north central Nebraska. Temperatures in
the upper 80s to low 90s will combine with dry air and keep
humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range this afternoon and
evening. In addition, strong south winds persist ahead of a cold
front, with widespread gusts of 40 to 50 miles per hour
continuing.

By late this evening, the cold front will begin to move east
across the area, leading to a wind shift from south to west to
northwest by sunrise Sunday morning. Cooler temperatures will be
ushered into the area behind this front, and keep fire concerns
lower into next week.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
NEZ204-206-208>210-219.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Gomez
FIRE WEATHER...Brown