572
FXUS63 KLBF 261733
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Expecting largely quiet conditions heading into the
  Thanksgiving Holiday.

- A few disturbances could bring light snow to the area for
  Friday through the post-holiday weekend, leading to some
  travel impacts.

- After below normal temperatures this weekend, temperatures
  moderate for next week with only Slight Chances (< 25%) for
  precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

This morning, satellite imagery denoted a mature mid-level cyclone
situated over Wisconsin. On the backside of this feature, abundant
dry air was entraining into the system. This was especially notable
on WV imagery and supported by Tuesday evening RAOB data from UNR
which shows a measured precipitable water (PWATs) value of 0.10" and
< 30% mid-level humidity. This translates to largely clear skies and
reasonable radiational cooling. Area temperatures range from the low
teens to middle 20s west to east. Steady west-northwest winds
persist though speeds west of Highway 83 have fallen to 10 mph or
less with a few lingering gusts across central Nebraska in closer
proximity to the departing disturbance.

For today...expecting a notable increase in mid-level moisture today
as a Pacific airmass crosses the central and northern Rockies. This
is being carried by predominantly west-northwesterly upper-level
flow as upper-level ridging slowly moves into the Great Basin today.
This will result in local height rises, limiting vertical motion
through the saturated mid-levels. Even with PWATs quickly rebounding
to positive anomalies, little in the way of sensible weather is
expected other than abundant cloud cover. Forecast soundings show a
fairly saturated profile above the lowest 2km. With the weak lift
and dry low-levels to overcome, believe any threat for precipitation
will be efficiently quelled. Will keep a mention of
sprinkles/flurries though but have effectively removed any
accumulating precipitation from the forecast. Given continued weak
CAA and increasing cloud cover, did opt to decrease forecast highs
today slightly. This produces middle 30s northeast to lower 40s
southwest or roughly 5F below climatological values.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 353 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thanksgiving...another quiet and fairly pleasant day is on tap for
the holiday. Upper-level ridging will begin to cross the Rockies
early in the day. The will continue to support subsidence aloft and
keep any potential precipitation at bay. Temperatures will increase
slightly with highs generally in the 40s for most and upper 30s
elsewhere. Winds will remain light, at or below 10 mph for much of
the day. Skies will become cloudy late in the day and through the
overnight which should help hold overnight lows near to even
slightly above normal Thursday night into Friday.

Friday/Friday Night...the weather turns a bit more active for the
late week, likely leading to at least some travel impacts for the
local area. Ridge breakdown begins by late Thursday night as the
next trough dives southeast out of the Pacific Northwest. At the
same time, a warm front will lift north through western Nebraska
beneath increasing moisture aloft once again. Fairly strong
isentropic lift, particularly around the 290-300K levels, will lead
to a deeply saturated profile and the increasing PoPs...initially
across our northeast zones but expanding through the northern
Nebraska Panhandle during the evening. Dendritic growth zone depth
remains fairly poor with a nearly isothermal layer in the lowest
2.5km at or around -5C. This suggests snow efficiency will be poor
and a favored wet/heavy snow. While ensemble means advertise 0.1-
0.15" liquid for far portions of Boyd/Holt Counties, these same
solutions paint generally 1.5" or less of snow anywhere in the local
area which further supports a wetter snow characteristic. Winds will
certainly be on the increase and the threat for blowing snow leading
to visibility issues will need monitored.

Saturday/Saturday Night...approaching trough axis will eject onto
the Plains by early Saturday, with peak upper-level dynamics...
strong height falls, cyclonic vorticity advection, and modest upper-
level divergence...arriving early in the day. This will promote lee-
cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado with an east-southeast track of
the surface low into central Oklahoma through the day. This will
draw a strong cold front south with gusty winds within the CAA
regime. While forecast soundings again show adequate deep-layer
moisture, lift will be lacking and focused to the east where deeper
southerly flow will reside. All this to say that while some light
snow will be possible through the day, the area will reside on the
western extent of the heavier QPF and thus shouldn`t be anything
more than a light snow event. NBM probabilities for exceeding 1" of
snow range from 15 to 30 percent. Deterministic solutions, utilizing
the fairly aggressive Cacher snow ratio calculation, only
suggest portions of central Nebraska perhaps exceeding 2" total
snow with the westward reach of this specific forecast amount
somewhat in question. Folks planning travel on Saturday should
certainly monitor the forecast going forward but it`s certainly
apparent a major event is unlikely.

Sunday...what appeared to be perhaps the day to watch is slowly
regressed to a fairly tranquil day. Earlier models runs suggested
broad upslope moist flow leading to expansive snow chances across
the region. This has slowly be replaced with moderately strong 1030+
hPa high pressure settling into the area. The NBM has been slow to
catch on to this and continues to paint expansive PoPs though values
have certainly been trending down. Did manually adjust these down
further citing the end of the holiday weekend. Did so by nudging
towards the GFS solution, which effectively limited all PoPs to <
25% outside of far southwest Nebraska. The GFS is the last holdout
on advertising light snow across southwest Nebraska and so chose
this route to avoid completely removing mention at this time. Even
so, believe most if not all locations should remain dry for Sunday
and leave the area reasonably calm for folks conducting their post-
Thanksgiving return trip. Sunday also appears to be the coldest day
of the forecast, with highs only reaching the 20s to low 30s. For
LBF/VTN, this is nearing the 10th Percentile in each respective site
climatology for the calendar day. Certainly won`t threaten any
records, but will be cold for travelers and caution is advised as
wind chills only reach the middle teens during the daytime.

Monday and beyond...colder temperatures hold on for Monday but will
begin to moderate slightly to start December. Many locations should
exceed the freezing mark Monday, with further climbs to the middle
30s and middle 40s by Tuesday. General northwesterly flow will
develop by early Tuesday as Southern Plains troughing settles east
towards the lower Mississippi Valley. Then, as the next trough digs
into the Great Basin and stalls, flow aloft will turn more zonal. A
split flow pattern will develop towards the middle of next week and
this should keep the area devoid of any notable precipitation
chances. Temperatures should return to above normal values with
dry conditions favored.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Some light precipitation may impact portions of southwest Nebraska
this afternoon, but impacts should remain minimal. The only major
impact should be some lowering of ceilings, especially across
southwest Nebraska and KLBF. Expect ceilings to drop to near 4000
feet through the overnight before rising back into VFR. Ceilings
across northern Nebraska may drop to 5000 feet by late afternoon
through the evening before rising. Otherwise, winds remain under 10
knots through Thursday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik