731
FXUS63 KLBF 222128
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
328 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild conditions continue Sunday.

- A system will cross the area Sunday night into Monday. This
  will be a warm system with light rain expected.

- Cooler but mainly dry weather is expected Thanksgiving week
  (through Friday).

- Watching a potential system next weekend. At this time
  confidence is low regarding how things will evolve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Surface high pressure is in the process of building southeastward
across the region this afternoon...and will be centered across
northern Nebraska by this evening. The center of the high will slide
southeast into eastern Nebraska by Sunday morning. Light return
southerly low-level flow will develop later tonight on the backside
of the high. Clear skies are expected overnight, and with the dry
air in place, expect lows to drop into the mid 20s to around 30.

As the surface high moves off to the east Sunday, southerly winds
increase somewhat. Guidance was a little low on high temperatures
today so bumped highs up a couple of degrees. Mainly sunny skies and
and the southerly low-level flow warrants warming high temperatures
a bit. This will put most of the area in the lower 60s...with mid
60s possible across portions of north central Nebraska. Appears any
fire weather concerns will remain minimal Sunday despite the above
average temperatures. Dew points will actually be slowly increasing
as moisture moves northward into the area. Lowest humidity values
will be across north central Nebraska, where readings as low as 35%
will be possible Sunday afternoon.

The next system will move from the southern Rockies into the central
plains Sunday night into Monday. A closed mid-level circulation will
cross the area during this time. This system brings an anomalous
amount of moisture northward into the area. There is actually a
Pacific tap of moisture from off the western coast of Mexico...and
PWATS will be much above normal values (on the order of 200%).
Despite the high moisture content, the system will be occluding and
weakening as it crosses the area. Still expect at least some
rainfall, with the probabilities for at least 1/10 of an inch of
accumulation (50-80%) along and north of I-80.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 324 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Northwest flow aloft develops Tuesday through Friday. A shortwave
will amplify as it crosses the northern plains Tuesday. Looks like a
decent shot of snow will occur across North Dakota, but little in
the way of precipitation is expected across our area. Will carry a
slight chance across far northern Nebraska, but amounts of any more
than a trace of rain or snow look unlikely at this point. It will
become windy Tuesday as a cold front surges southeastward through
the area. It appears no travel delays or issues are anticipated as
we head toward the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday).
Overall with the northwest flow pattern persisting through Friday,
precipitation chances after Tuesday are not anticipated.
Temperatures will average somewhat below average behind the cold
frontal passage Tuesday. Highs Tuesday through Friday will range
from the upper 30s across portions of north central Nebraska to the
upper 40s across southwest Nebraska into the Panhandle.

By Saturday a system may dive southward through the central Rockies,
perhaps bringing a chance for snow to the area Saturday. Still much
model/ensemble spread on how the pattern will evolve and overall
confidence is low. Stay tuned though...as it will be a busy weekend
travel wise.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across all of western and north
central Nebraska this afternoon and tonight. Other than some scattered
high clouds skies will be clear. Winds will be northwest 10-15
kts today becoming south later tonight and Sunday.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Taylor