608
FXUS63 KLBF 022343
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
543 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Continued above normal temperatures will lead to recurring
  fire weather concerns much of the upcoming week.

- Dry weather will continue with extended guidance suggesting 10%
  or less potential of seeing measurable precipitation through
  next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

This afternoon, westerly downsloping flow has prompted many
locations to warm up quickly across the area. Multiple locations
have reached the low 80s, including at the Thedford, Ogallala, and
Grant Airport observation sites. Westerly flow has also promoted
rapid drying of the air as relative humidity values have fallen into
the teens and even some single digits for Panhandle. Winds climbed
into 25 to 35 mph range for the eastern Panhandle through southwest
Nebraska. This was in response to a speed max just off the surface
ahead of an approaching cool front. Gusts even reached 50 mph for
portions of the western Panhandle but have remained to the west of
the local area. Winds continue to subside as the h85 trough axis
clears to the south. A cool front currently observed around the
central Sandhills will continue to settle south through the
remainder of the day.

For tonight...aforementioned frontal boundary will clear western
Nebraska by mid-evening. Though winds may exhibit a slight increase
as pressure rises of 1-3 hPa/hour filter in, moisture quality will
increase slightly as dew points see a slight bump. This should help
temper any lingering fire weather concerns into the overnight hours.
High pressure will continue to build in from the northwest. Did
lower temperatures as a result with values in the middle 20s to
middle 30s west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 227 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Overall little in the way of sensible weather changes is anticipated
over the next week. Zonal flow aloft will set up by early Monday
with only a few small perturbations within the flow expected to
pass. Following a cooldown on Monday in the post frontal airmass,
temperatures recover rapidly with +5-15F anomalies forecast each day
Tuesday through Saturday. NBM inner-quartile spreads remain fairly
limited, on the order of 4-8F, suggesting fairly high confidence in
the expected above normal temperatures. This translates to highs
generally in the upper 60s to middle 70s outside of Wednesday where
50s and lower 60s are forecast. As a progressive wave pattern
continues, multiple frontal boundaries will traverse the local area
and promote breezy conditions. Combining this with the above normal
temperatures, believe fire weather concerns will possible each day.
Confidence in seeing dry weather through the next 7 days is medium
to high as ensemble outputs suggest < 10% of seeing 0.10" or more
total precipitation through their respective runs. Towards the
weekend, a more pronounced northwesterly flow regime may set up as
deep longwave troughing stalls over the western Hudson Bay. This may
allow temperatures to settle closer to seasonable norms but support
for any appreciable precipitation remains limited.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 543 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Winds will continue to decrease across the region as the cold front
pushes to the south and east. Otherwise, VFR conditions will remain
in place through Monday afternoon.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Kulik